中泰证券：快递业市场份额有望逐步集中建议关注顺丰控股(002352.SZ)等

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智通财经APP获悉，中泰证券发布研报称，“价格战”转向“价值战”背景下，快递业市场份额有望逐步向服务品质更优、管理能力更强、网络健康度更好的快递企业集中，同时该等企业有望凭借自身资源优势实现更为显著的降本增效;重点跟踪监管力度、量价表现及头部企业竞争策略变化情况。个股方面重点关注中通快递-W(02057)、圆通速递(600233.SH)。建议关注申通快递(002468.SZ)、韵达股份(...

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It is recommended to pay attention to SF Holdings (002352. SZ) and others","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"600918":1.5,"06936":1.5,"002352":1.5},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，中泰证券发布研报称，“价格战”转向“价值战”背景下，快递业市场份额有望逐步向服务品质更优、管理能力更强、网络健康度更好的快递企业集中，同时该等企业有望凭借自身资源优势实现更为显著的降本增效;重点跟踪监管力度、量价表现及头部企业竞争策略变化情况。个股方面重点关注中通快递-W(02057)、圆通速递(600233.SH)。建议关注申通快递(002468.SZ)、韵达股份(002120.SZ)及顺丰控股(002352.SZ)。中泰证券主要观点如下：恶性价格战或难卷土重来，“反内卷”有望超预期1)政策端：自上而下，整治“内卷式”竞争料延续。2025下半年以来，随着“反内卷”政策持续推进，恶性竞争得到有效整治，全国多个省份上调快递价格，8-11月A股“通达系”快递公司的单票收入呈现环比持续提升趋势。政策端“反内卷”不放松，2025年12月中央经济工作会议部署明年经济工作时提出，制定全国统一大市场建设条例，深入整治“内卷式”竞争;2026年全国邮政工作会议也释放强监管优服务信号，提出综合整治“内卷式”竞争。2)企业端：权益保障，“社保新规”理顺成本-价格传导路径。“社保新规(用人单位未依法缴纳社会保险费，劳动者根据劳动合同法第三十八条第一款第三项规定请求解除劳动合同、由用人单位支付经济补偿的，人民法院依法予以支持)”有望助推社保覆盖率加快提升，快递产业链面临用工成本增加压力，可能会通过提升价格来进行转嫁，与“反内卷”形成政策协同。基于不同假设下加盟制快递公司实现社保全覆盖的单票全链路增量成本测算模型，随着社保覆盖面的扩大，单票全链路成本呈现逐步增加趋势。3)行业端：行业件量增速放缓下，价值竞争成关键。“反内卷”背景下，快递价格理性回归，快递轻小件化趋势减弱，同时电商平台合规经营监管强化有望推动快递件量“去泡沫”，行业件量增速中枢下移预期下(据2026年全国邮政工作会议，2025年快递业务量同比增长13.7%，预计2026年快递业务量同比增长8%左右)，“降本、提质、增效”的价值竞争成为快递企业打造竞争优势、获取市场份额的关键。深挖全链路成本下降潜力，末端决胜逐步成为共识1)中转环节：随着件量规模不断扩大，规模效应带来的边际降本效果逐渐减弱，头部加盟制快递公司主要通过优化路由、提升车辆装载率及分拣效率等方式来降本增效，截至2025年H1“通达系”快递公司的单票中转成本已降至0.60元左右，后续总部中转环节的降本空间可能会逐步收窄。2)末端环节：末端配送作为快递服务“最后一公里”，直接影响用户体验和物流效率，相关成本在全链路成本中占比较高，网点“调优革新”将成为重点发力方向，随着自动化、无人化等举措持续推进，预计后续仍有较大成本优化空间。在加盟制快递模式中，末端设备投入与优化成本由加盟商承担，因此新产品、新技术的应用进展及降本成效与网点的经营情况、配合程度等紧密相关，网络状况更好、赋能力度更强的头部企业或更占优。风险提示：行业政策变化风险、需求增长不及预期风险、恶性价格竞争风险、降本增效不及预期风险、第三方数据可信性风险、使用信息数据更新不及时风险。更多港股重磅资讯，下载智通财经app更多港股及海外理财资讯，请点击www.zhitongcaijing.com（搜索“智通财经”）；欲加入智通港股投资群，请加智通客服微信(ztcjkf)","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2603696678","isCrawlerRequest":true}

中泰证券：快递业市场份额有望逐步集中 建议关注顺丰控股(002352.SZ)等

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中泰证券：快递业市场份额有望逐步集中建议关注顺丰控股(002352.SZ)等