黄仁勋最想赢的一仗，四年仍在原地踏步

标杆研学中心01-15

过去两年里，英伟达因为AI芯片业务实现了惊人的增长。从2023年前九个月的275亿美元营收跃升至2024年同期的近1480亿美元，这样的增长速度在科技行业历史上都算得上罕见。然而黄仁勋并不满足于此。他将英伟达的下一阶段押注在机器人和制造业上，于是就有了Omniverse。但其结果不仅没有达到预期，甚至还让慈眉善目的黄仁勋“破防了”。这种反常的情绪爆发背后，是一个从高开走低到几近崩盘的故事。而要理解...

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2026011513175397a1e5de&s=b><strong>标杆研学中心</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>过去两年里，英伟达因为AI芯片业务实现了惊人的增长。从2023年前九个月的275亿美元营收跃升至2024年同期的近1480亿美元，这样的增长速度在科技行业历史上都算得上罕见。然而黄仁勋并不满足于此。他将英伟达的下一阶段押注在机器人和制造业上，于是就有了Omniverse。但其结果不仅没有达到预期，甚至还让慈眉善目的黄仁勋“破防了”。这种反常的情绪爆发背后，是一个从高开走低到几近崩盘的故事。而要理解...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2026011513175397a1e5de&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU2746668461.USD","symbol_name":"MANULIFE DYNAMIC LEADERS \"AA\" (USD) 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win most is still standing still for four years","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDG":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"NVDA":1.98,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6},"content_text":"过去两年里，英伟达因为AI芯片业务实现了惊人的增长。从2023年前九个月的275亿美元营收跃升至2024年同期的近1480亿美元，这样的增长速度在科技行业历史上都算得上罕见。然而黄仁勋并不满足于此。他将英伟达的下一阶段押注在机器人和制造业上，于是就有了Omniverse。但其结果不仅没有达到预期，甚至还让慈眉善目的黄仁勋“破防了”。这种反常的情绪爆发背后，是一个从高开走低到几近崩盘的故事。而要理解Omniverse究竟遭遇了什么，还得从它最初的雄心壮志说起。Omniverse有一个非常梦幻的开局。在GTC 2021上，黄仁勋亲自为其站台，并以Omniverse作为开场和收尾，全程的演讲中反复强调其战略地位。黄仁勋视Omniverse为英伟达的下一个落脚点，而且公开表示，该平台能够让英伟达在价值50万亿美元的制造业和物流业中分一杯羹。在今年拉斯维加斯的消费电子展上，他还向外界讲述这个价值数万亿美元的机会故事，展台上会有西门子CEO、敏捷机器人公司CTO等重量级嘉宾站台。但在这些光鲜的表面之下，隐藏着一个令人尴尬的事实。四位现任和前任英伟达员工透露，经过四年的努力，Omniverse业务几乎没有取得实质性进展。虽然英伟达对外公布了一长串使用Omniverse软件的公司名单，从宝马、西门子到富士康、波士顿动力，但真正签约在Omniverse Cloud服务器上运行大规模模拟的公司寥寥无几。开发者对Omniverse工具的评价也不尽如人意。使用过Omniverse场景构建和模拟工具的开发者经常抱怨软件难以使用，容易崩溃，功能感觉不完整。软件开发者Valentin Forager表示，Omniverse软件在创建虚拟零售货架时表现良好，他的公司用这些虚拟货架来开发追踪购物者如何查看商品的传感器。但当他尝试在同一虚拟环境中模拟人类时，平台就崩溃了。“一旦你尝试做一些稍微超出常规的事情，这东西就坏了，几乎从来不能正常工作，”Forager说道。更令人意外的是，当Forager在首尔的一次英伟达赞助活动上向公司代表提出这个问题时，对方承认Omniverse还没有准备好满足他的特定需求，并建议他使用对手公司Unity的软件。黄仁勋对这种局面的不满已经不是秘密。在2023年的一次全体会议上，黄仁勋质问负责Omniverse的副总裁Rev Lebaredian，质问他的团队是否赚到了钱。随后，当黄仁勋还得知了一件让他非常生气的事情，那就是英伟达与宝马宣布合作以后，宝马团队使用Omniverse的实际规模远小于他最初被告知的数量。当Omniverse部门的一个团队在电话会议上要求增加人员来开发新产品时，黄仁勋立刻变得愤怒起来。据一位参与通话的人士说，黄仁勋在接下来的一个小时里训斥了他们，指责团队浪费工程师的时间，并向他们讲授英伟达如何构建产品。他告诉他们，团队已经有足够多的人了。问题的根源在于，Omniverse部门的工程师经常忙于构建新功能和产品的演示，这些演示在受控环境中运行良好，但无法处理实际情况。在与下属的会议中，黄仁勋表达了对Omniverse团队在无法转化为实际产品的演示上浪费工程时间的不满。2023年和2024年期间，Omniverse团队向黄仁勋展示了大量软件演示，从允许多人协作3D模型的工具到流媒体软件概念和包括汽车在内的新模拟程序。但时至今日，这支团队没有将任何一个演示转化为产品。黄仁勋对Omniverse的构想，是目前英伟达团队不能达到的。模拟物理世界的运动和行为，听起来是个工程问题，实际上复杂程度远超大多数人的想象。对于刚体，比如汽车底盘、机械臂这类形状固定的物体，运动学模拟相对成熟。计算它们的位移、旋转、碰撞，现有的物理引擎基本能够胜任。但一旦涉及到柔性物体，整个问题的难度就呈指数级上升。当机器人需要抓取、折叠或整理衣物时，这块布料的形状会不断变化，每一处褶皱、每一次扭曲都涉及到极其复杂的非线性物理计算。Omniverse需要实时计算成千上万个网格点的变形、摩擦力、张力分布，还要处理布料与机器人手爪之间的接触和滑动。液体的模拟同样困难，流体动力学方程本身就是物理学中最难求解的方程之一，要在毫秒级的时间内完成实时计算，对计算能力的要求高得惊人。最后是管线。这些物体既有柔性，又有一定的刚性约束，在运动中会发生弯曲、扭转、缠绕，甚至打结。汽车制造中有大量线束需要安装，如果无法准确模拟线缆的物理特性，机器人在虚拟环境中学到的技能就无法迁移到真实世界。Isaac Sim是一款基于Omniverse构建的开源参考应用，几位机器人公司的联合创始人直言不讳地指出了其局限性。这款英伟达的机器人模拟工具在训练机器人行走或自主移动方面确实有用，但在让机器人操纵复杂物体方面几乎派不上用场，尤其是像衣物这种形状不断变化的物体。还有一点，Omniverse最初的设想是用同一套场景，模拟所有可能发生的物理变化。可是在实际使用中却发现，对特定场景进行特定模拟才是最高效的，通用模拟反而毫无帮助。为不同行业构建通用的模拟软件本身就是一个几乎不可能完成的任务。机器人模拟与汽车模拟完全不同，工业设备的模拟又是另一套逻辑。每个领域都有自己独特的物理特性、精度要求和应用场景。试图用一套框架满足所有需求，结果往往是哪个领域都做不好。这也解释了为什么许多公司选择自己开发模拟软件。特斯拉就是典型例子，他们仍在构建自己的模拟软件，而不是转向英伟达的产品。熟悉该行业的人士透露，机器人行业本身还处于早期阶段，主要玩家都倾向于掌握核心技术的自主权。英伟达试图通过投资来弥补技术短板和应用场景的缺失。公司向多家提供数字孪生和模拟服务的初创公司注资，希望更好地了解客户需求，同时鼓励这些公司在Omniverse的软件工具之上构建特定行业的服务。2024年12月，英伟达宣布向Synopsys投资20亿美元，这家公司是全球领先的半导体设计软件提供商，其在7月完成的对Ansys的350亿美元收购，让它获得了广泛用于模拟真实物理行为的软件。一位获得英伟达投资的CEO表示，“我认为人们低估了用真正的领域知识构建这些模拟需要多少资源。这需要很长时间。Omniverse不是一个完整的应用程序，它是一个面向开发者构建的横向开放平台。”这句话揭示了Omniverse的定位困境。作为一个底层平台，它需要大量的上层应用来填充生态；但作为一个未成熟的平台，它又缺乏足够的稳定性和完整性来吸引开发者投入资源。这种鸡和蛋的问题，在平台型产品的发展初期很常见，但英伟达显然还没有找到破局之道。竞争对手已经在蚕食市场。UnityTechnologies的软件曾用于开发《精灵宝可梦GO》等热门视频游戏，现在也提供生成场景和物体的工具，让客户在虚拟环境中设计、测试和训练机器人系统。开源机器人模拟器Gazebo由非营利组织OpenRobotics推出，也在争夺用户。这些竞争者各有优势，Unity在图形渲染和用户体验方面积累深厚，Gazebo则因为开源而获得了社区的广泛支持。虽然英伟达的高管们总是将Omniverse比作公司早期在Cuda上的长期押注。Rev Lebaredian在一份书面声明中说：“就像我们在Cuda上投资了十多年才革新深度学习一样，英伟达花了数年时间构建Omniverse，作为开启加速计算下一个巨大市场——物理AI——的基础软件。”但Cuda和Omniverse面临的市场环境完全不同。Cuda推出时，深度学习的潜力已经在学术界显现，只是缺乏合适的工具和硬件。而Omniverse面对的是一个更加分散、需求更加多元的市场。许多工业制造商既没有专业知识，也没有足够的资金投入到这项技术中。前英伟达员工和行业内部人士都承认，英伟达可能超前于时代，试图创造一个尚不存在的市场，而没人知道自己需要这个市场。Omniverse的挫折，影响远不止一个产品线的得失。这关乎英伟达在整个科技产业中的战略定位。过去二十年，英伟达从一家显卡制造商转变为AI时代的基础设施提供者，这个转变的关键在于它不仅卖硬件，更定义了一套生态系统。Cuda让英伟达的GPU成为AI开发的事实标准，开发者用Cuda编写的代码只能在英伟达的芯片上高效运行，这种锁定效应为公司建立了深厚的护城河。Omniverse承载着类似的战略野心。黄仁勋的愿景是让每家公司在构建实体之前都先模拟它们的机器人、车辆和工厂，从而推动数十亿美元的英伟达芯片采购，就像公司现在为训练和运行AI模型所做的那样。如果这个愿景实现，英伟达就能在制造业、物流业、机器人产业中复制它在AI领域的成功，不仅卖GPU，还通过软件生态牢牢绑定客户。但如果Omniverse失败，后果不仅是损失一个增长机会。更严重的威胁在于，英伟达可能失去定义下一代范式的机会，从生态系统的制定者退化为一个纯粹的硬件组件供应商。这个风险正在逐渐显现。当特斯拉、各大机器人公司选择自建模拟系统时，它们实际上是在拒绝英伟达提供的软件生态。这些公司会继续购买英伟达的GPU，因为在纯粹的计算能力上，英伟达的硬件仍然领先——但它们不会被锁定在英伟达的软件栈中。这意味着一旦出现性能相当的竞争对手芯片，客户的迁移成本会大大降低。AMD、英特尔、各种AI芯片初创公司都在虎视眈眈。虽然在纯粹的性能上它们还落后于英伟达，但差距正在缩小。如果英伟达失去了软件生态的护城河，竞争就会回归到性能和价格的比拼，这对任何硬件公司来说都不是理想的竞争格局。更深层的问题在于主导权。在AI时代，英伟达通过Cuda和一系列配套工具，深度参与了AI模型的训练、推理、部署的每一个环节。这让它能够提前感知技术趋势，快速调整硬件架构，推出针对性的解决方案。但在物理AI和机器人领域，如果客户都在用自己的软件栈，英伟达就失去了这种洞察力和影响力。黄仁勋显然意识到了这个风险。他将他的两个孩子都安插在了Omniverse部门工作。女儿Madison在营销团队担任高级经理，儿子Spencer是机器人产品经理。这不仅是业务布局，更是战略层面的焦虑。熟悉英伟达业务的人士透露，黄仁勋在幕后对团队在大公司中采用缓慢的问题越来越不耐烦。问题的症结在于，英伟达试图在一个碎片化的市场中强行建立统一标准。制造业、物流业、机器人产业，每个领域都有自己的技术积累、工作流程和痛点。一个横向平台想要满足所有需求，要么做得足够底层，要么提供丰富的上层应用。但那样对于开发者来说太难了，而且也会变相增加使用者的门槛，这完全有悖于英伟达Cuda简单易用的底层逻辑。时间也不站在英伟达这边。机器人产业正在快速发展，各种技术路线都在试探。如果英伟达不能在这个关键窗口期确立标准，等市场格局固化后再想改变就难上加难。特斯拉的Optimus机器人项目、各种人形机器人创业公司、工业机器人巨头，它们现在选择的技术栈很可能就是未来十年的主流。更让人担忧的是，这种挫折可能动摇英伟达在其他新兴领域的布局信心。公司在自动驾驶、医疗影像、科学计算等多个方向都有投入，如果Omniverse的经验让管理层对软件生态战略产生怀疑，可能会影响到整体的战略执行。当然，现在说Omniverse彻底失败还为时过早。Rev Lebaredian在声明中提到，Omniverse主要云服务提供商正在建立专门的模拟基础设施，机器人和汽车公司正在使用英伟达的框架构建和训练下一代自主机器。可以肯定的是，市场需求确实存在，只是爆发的时间点还不确定。黄仁勋的焦虑不是没有道理的。在科技产业，定义标准和生态的公司往往能获得远超硬件利润的价值。微软定义了PC软件生态，谷歌定义了移动互联网生态，英伟达在AI时代定义了计算生态。每一次生态的建立都需要天时地利人和，需要技术突破、市场时机和执行力的完美结合。Omniverse目前的困境表明，这一次的挑战可能比想象中更加艰巨。【 热门视频推荐 】标杆参访  |  标杆内训  |  标杆咨询中国企业标杆研学中心新媒体编辑部分享、点赞、在看，3连3连！","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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