奔驰、宝马2026年预测不足50万辆，退回十年前｜36氪独家

36氪汽车01-14

“高端市场的份额抢夺战”文|徐蔡钰编辑|李勤、杨轩2026年中国高端车市场，国产品牌信心十足，德系品牌则沉着冷静。36氪从多处获悉，奔驰、宝马近期已向国内供应链给出2026年的初步需求预测量。多位知情人士告诉36氪，两家企业国产车型的全年预估量均不足50万辆，几乎已经回到其十年前在华销量水平。相较之下，中国高端品牌的销量目标则更为激进：蔚来目标增长40-50%，销量预估约为46万辆；小米汽车目标为...

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Exclusive","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"81810":0.6,"BMWYY":1.95,"MBGYY":1.95,"01810":0.9,"HXXD.SI":0.6,"NIO.SI":1.87,"09866":0.9,"MIUmain":0.6},"content_text":"“高端市场的份额抢夺战”文|徐蔡钰编辑|李勤、杨轩2026年中国高端车市场，国产品牌信心十足，德系品牌则沉着冷静。36氪从多处获悉，奔驰、宝马近期已向国内供应链给出2026年的初步需求预测量。多位知情人士告诉36氪，两家企业国产车型的全年预估量均不足50万辆，几乎已经回到其十年前在华销量水平。相较之下，中国高端品牌的销量目标则更为激进：蔚来目标增长40-50%，销量预估约为46万辆；小米汽车目标为55万辆，同比增长34%；鸿蒙智行则给出了100-130万辆的目标，预计增长速度为120%。高亢的节奏背后，国产品牌过去一年高端化成绩显著。蔚来ES8车型改款后，12月单月销量达到2.2万辆；鸿蒙智行旗下问界M8、M9车型年销量均突破10万辆，起售价70.8万元起的尊界S800在12月交付超4000辆。得益于销量的提振效应与2026年数目可观的新车计划，国产品牌给出了更为积极的市场销量预期。德系豪华品牌则对市场环境有着更加冷静的态度。2025年，奔驰在华交付量为55.19万辆，同比下滑19%，宝马销量为62.55万辆，同比下滑12.5%。两家企业在华销量都已连续两年下滑超10%。2026年，奔驰即将推出长轴距纯电GLC、首次实现国产的GLE等15款改款和新品，宝马也将携带新世代iX3与其他超20款新品进入市场。尽管两家企业的新品阵容丰富，但它们对中国汽车市场的竞争格局，依然保持着清醒的认识。“BBA仍以燃油车为基本盘，国产品牌用电动化进攻高端市场”2025年，中国汽车市场新能源渗透率突破50%分水岭，12月单月渗透率更是达到59.1%。业界预测，2026年新能源渗透率将继续提升，突破60%。这意味着，中国汽车市场即将进入新能源主导时代。奔驰、宝马等传统豪华品牌，电动化转型速度并不理想。2025年奔驰推出了其全新一代纯电车型CLA，新车凝聚了奔驰过去几年的电动化技术探索，综合续航超过860km，并搭载了奔驰与中国企业Momenta共同打造的辅助驾驶系统。这款新车已于9月开启小定，在11月正式上市，但11-12月销量合计为1369辆。纵观全年，E级、C级与GLC三款燃油主力车型仍然占据近奔驰中国70%销量，纯电车型销量不足5%。被寄予厚望的电动化，目前并未成为奔驰中国新的增长引擎。相较之下，宝马中国2025年的纯电车型销量更为乐观，达到5.3万辆，但其在品牌总量中的占比也不足10%。销量背后，宝马i3的成交价一度从35.39万元的指导价跌至20万元以内，品牌溢价与盈利能力不免受到影响。除此之外，奔驰、宝马主力的高端豪华市场，如今也正在遭遇来自国产品牌的猛烈攻势。2025年，鸿蒙智行旗下另一豪华品牌尊界，以售价70.8万-101.8万元的尊界S800，向豪华市场发起进攻。8-12月，其累计销量达到1.1万辆，12月单月交付成绩更是超过4000辆，超过传统燃油豪华品牌同类车型销量之和。在50万元价位，问界M9已连续两年以超10万辆的成绩稳坐第一；4月上市的新车问界M8，则以超15万辆的销量，在35万-45万元市场超过奔驰GLC、宝马X3等竞品车型。德系豪华品牌，正在经历着电动化转型困难与燃油车基本盘松动的双重考验。“2026新车攻势：宝马新世代首次上线，奔驰继续着眼豪华车”近日，奔驰、宝马都公布了其新一年的产品攻势。2026年，奔驰将推出超15款全新和改款产品，其中包括全新长轴距的纯电GLC SUV、首次实现国产的长轴距GLE SUV，以及新一代S级车型。宝马则将带来超20款新品，其中最重磅的产品便是新世代首款车型：长轴距版iX3，宝马第二次电动化探索即将迎来大考。面对严峻的市场形势，奔驰与宝马正试图通过一场密集的产品攻势扭转局面，但这场自救行动能否成功仍面临诸多挑战，中国汽车市场的竞争态势也在同步升级。技术层面，小米汽车公布了2026年改款SU7的部分数据，其Pro版本CLTC工况下续航里程可达902km，刷新中大型纯电轿车的纪录；零跑等品牌则将增程车型的纯电使用里程提升至500km水平。在电动化方面，关乎续航里程的竞争逐渐白热化。智能驾驶领域，多家企业已开启L3级自动驾驶测试，小鹏2026款新车搭载的最新芯片更是已经支持初阶L4级自动驾驶的能力，以世界模型为核心的AI能力比拼将成为2026年的竞争重点。产品层面，与BBA共同瞄准豪华市场的尊界品牌2026年将推出6款新车，其中包含SUV与MPV车型，试图进一步抢占BBA所属的豪华市场。单纯依靠降价或零散推出电动车型的战术调整，已难以应对国产高端品牌在产品、技术、品牌等多维度发起的系统性冲击。BBA们正在经历一场残酷的份额争夺战。封面来源|IC photo、企业官网","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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