拼多多：超市“理想家”

商业观察家01-14

交流百亿超市天猫超市京东超市，实名添加微信lihua759321进群拼多多内测“百亿超市”频道，或显示拼多多过往基于“拼”的平台业务模型，也进入到了发展瓶颈期。从已留出的信息来看，拼多多的“百亿超市”，内嵌在拼多多的“流量王牌”——百亿补贴频道板块里，内测阶段还没有独立的一级流量入口，消费者需要搜索进入，似乎是作为百亿补贴的一个“新组成”。百亿超市的形态与服务，则看起来像是聚合商超品类做一个新的...

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Home\"","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"PDD":1.97},"content_text":"交流百亿超市天猫超市京东超市，实名添加微信lihua759321进群拼多多内测“百亿超市”频道，或显示拼多多过往基于“拼”的平台业务模型，也进入到了发展瓶颈期。从已留出的信息来看，拼多多的“百亿超市”，内嵌在拼多多的“流量王牌”——百亿补贴频道板块里，内测阶段还没有独立的一级流量入口，消费者需要搜索进入，似乎是作为百亿补贴的一个“新组成”。百亿超市的形态与服务，则看起来像是聚合商超品类做一个新的营销功能，它推出了限时限量的发券营销玩法（零点抢券），也做了一些专项低价补贴。似乎是要打造出一个聚合超市业务的营销流量功能，与强化平台的超市品牌心智，这有点类似于天猫超市、京东超市。从支付与履约来看，百亿超市跟百亿补贴有所区别，百亿超市有购物车功能，可以将多品类商品、多件商品添加进购物车内做统一结算，之前，拼多多的主流业务模型则是，没有购物车功能，消费者单件商品单件下单、单件拼团，单价结算、单件履约。就是说，消费者每单买一件商品就能发货，哪怕这单只有一两块钱的单值。百亿超市似乎就没有走这条路线了，这意味着什么？它的客单价会更高、它的物流履约要变（可能需要做大仓集合超市商品做“整包”发货；会有更多“自营”色彩；会做强管控供应链；要做精选了。）、它的利润表现可能更好（一次购买多件商品发货，每单客单价高，每单毛利润更好，覆盖履约成本的能力更强，经济性更好。）这个业务如果未来规模推展，甚至是有可能切入到小时达即时零售，因为即时零售履约成本高，一件发货“拼”的这种业务模型，如果就几块钱的货值，整单货值都还不够付小时达骑手的每单配送成本，更不要说毛利了。所以，百亿超市做的已经不是拼多多起家的“拼”的平台业务模型了。这可能说明，拼多多过往基于“拼”的平台业务模型，已经进入到了发展瓶颈期。一万变不离其宗：做超市拼多多起家于农产品，壮大于食品、居家日用百货，再活跃于个护、母婴、小家电、宠物等，这些都是商超品类。连拼多多上卖得好的服饰、鞋帽，甚至大家电等等，大量的都是平价超市款，以及农贸市场款（实体超市做的也是农贸市场的业态升级，做“农改超”，要抢农贸市场客流）。从这个角度来讲，拼多多起家“基因”其实就是一家线上农贸市场，一家线上超市。它的品类基础盘，就是农贸市场、超市品类。它把农贸市场与超市线上化了、快递电商化了，进而通过商超的刚需高频消费特征，做出了一个巨型流量平台。拼多多的流量王牌——百亿补贴频道里，主营的品类，也都是商超品类，比如生鲜、食品、日用百货、小家电、母婴、宠物、汽车周边、办公小件用品，以及大量的平价超市款的美妆、个护、服饰鞋帽等。现在，拼多多又要在百亿补贴里，再做一个百亿超市“频道”。好像这些都是在做一件重复的事情，又好像不是。说它重复，是因为拼多多大盘、百亿频道与即将上线的百亿超市，所经营的品类大量重复，且都以商超品类为基础盘。说它不是在重复，则是因为，这三者似乎存在着一个业态升级关系。就像线下商超零售业，先有的农贸市场（农贸集市），然后，过了一段时间，人们觉得农贸市场“脏乱差”，有瓶颈了，于是就做了“农改超”——连锁超市大量喷发。现在呢，人们又觉得传统超市的商品品质还是不行，发展到顶了，进入瓶颈期了，要做“品质零售”，于是，就把超市改名叫“生活馆”，叫“会员店”了，要基于新的链路来连接新的供需。拼多多大盘、百亿补贴、百亿超市，这三者似乎就是在线上端，对应着这种业态升级关系。只是拼多多没有公开对外说，我这个东西就是升级版的新业态新链路，或者说我这个是2.0、那个是3.0。理清这个关系，我们再来看看拼多多的百亿超市未来有可能会做什么。《商业观察家》认为，百亿超市未来，有可能会有以下这四个发展方向。1、新效率模型。基于原有的快递超市电商盘，要做新的聚合、新的营销玩法、新的链路。那首先就是要优化既有快递电商业务盘的效率，要做新的效率模型。2、小时达即时零售。在商超品类线上化赛道，当下还在增长的业态，小时达即时零售算一个。因为即时零售其实是一个新的链路、新的供需。通过提供半小时配送到家履约服务，它带来了一种高确定性的生活方式，人们可以随时随地就地购买就地拿到货。在商品层面，基于这种高确定性履约方式所带来的消费习惯与生活方式，导致决胜即时零售的一个核心要素是：需要打造出“闭眼买”的品牌心智。零售商帮助挑选最适合你的商品、最好的商品、最安全健康放心的商品，来匹配这种高确定性的履约方式与生活方式。所以，在即时零售赛道里，玩得好的玩家都是能“闭眼买”的超市品牌，比如，自营前置仓即时零售赛道里，当下销售排行第一位的玩家是山姆会员店，山姆会员店的“品牌信用”领先全行业，基本上可以做到让消费者闭眼买，平台电商都没有这种心智。这种“品牌信用”匹配了即时零售赛道的高确定性特征，进而支撑了山姆线上到家业务的成长。由此，拼多多此次推出“百亿超市”，如果是基于升级既有超市业务盘，那它的一个方向就有可能是要切入高确定性的生活方式，先从商品、供需链路着手，磨合好了，达到了“闭眼买”的水准了，就可以规模推展小时达即时零售业务了。不过，对于拼多多会不会做前置仓，很多市场人士对《商业观察家》称：“还不好判断。”做即时零售，需要铺前置仓，拼多多没干过这么“重”的活。有利的点则在于，随着外卖即时零售大战的推展，在下沉市场，即时物流、前置仓等等“基础设施”已经成型了，似乎可以“规模整合”了。拼多多最初的崛起，一大基础就是，得益于阿里等玩家不断“鼓动”市场，全国的快递物流产能大幅过剩了，缺订单，快递物流的单价低，以至于拼多多能很便宜地整合快递物流“基础设施”，迅速崛起。3、精选。从全球商超零售业来看，经济越发达，人们就越喜欢精选。消费者希望零售商帮助挑选好能让他们感到惊喜的商品，能为他们节省时间节省金钱。在中国，无论是高线市场，还是低线市场，经济都在发展，精选都是一个大潮流。由此，承载着拼多多商超业务升级的百亿超市，未来将可能承担着更多的“精选”功能——更少的SKU，更好的单品吞吐量与周转效率。至于这种精选会不会以“付费会员店”的形式出现，未来要持续观察，但即便不做付费会员，做“免费”会员也肯定是大方向，因为“精选”业态一旦启动，就不只限于商品，而是做整个产业链的“精选”，包括用户。实际上，任何精选业态其实也都是会员业态，山姆等仓储会员店精选几千支商品，做的是中高端用户群的付费会员业务。奥乐齐等硬折扣超市精选1000多支商品，做的是“穷人超市”的“免费”会员业务。拼多多也会筛选不同层级用户来做精选与匹配。大方向，随着互联网流量红利的到顶，互联网企业也需要做高单客产值，把存量用户固化为会员。目前，拼多多也在做付费会员。4、供应链。业态无论怎么升级，都需要做出更好的商品品质、做出更好的商品开发、做出更好的履约交付。怎么才能做出更好的品质，那就必须去源头直采，去源头品控与“包货”，这样才能做出品质，做出食品安全，做出差异化。所以，这也是一个供应链发展逻辑。而玩供应链，就是玩资本。拼多多账上的巨量资金，可能要动了。二影响至于拼多多“百亿超市”的推出，对整个市场会有什么影响？大方向上，不管拼多多具体要做什么，只要动了“调整的心”，那以它的“量能”来讲，影响都不会小。拼多多现在每年都能赚到千亿级的净利润，截至2025年三季度末，拼多多持有的现金、现金等价物及短期投资则达到4238亿元。同期，阿里巴巴“资金储备”则是3735.7亿元。拼多多的“资金储备”，现在是中国快递电商之冠。这么高的资金储备，拼多多既不分红，也不回购股票。那它拿着这笔钱要做什么？防守，还是进攻。如果是进攻，这么大的资金体量，集中投入到一两个方向，对整个市场的影响，及冲击，都会非常巨大。具体来讲，作为快递电商，拼多多要“升级”超市业务，首当其冲的就是同类型玩家会收到影响，比如京东超市、天猫超市。因为它们的相似度更大，当一方要做大力度改变时，要做新的效率模型时，其他玩家不受影响，那是不可能的。所以，一些市场人士对《商业观察家》称：“拼多多做百亿超市，应该是要‘抢’京东超市、天猫超市。”如果后续的发展，业务磨合好了，拼多多要把“百亿超市”集体导入即时零售赛道，那美团也会受影响。最终，如果拼多多的“超市新链路”做成功了，那它对线下零售业的“品质零售”转型等，也可能将产生影响。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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