付鹏：2022年英伟达跌了70%，很多人认为它完了，结果它完成了华丽转身

睿见Economy01-15

专题：2025微博财经之夜暨北京财经大V联盟年会2025微博财经之夜暨北京财经大V联盟年会于1月15日在北京举行。前东北证券首席经济学家付鹏出席并演讲。付鹏在演讲中提到了2015、2016年的两个历史事件：第一，当年埃隆·马斯克的SpaceX失败，他含泪的画面，是对人类文明勇于挑战、颠覆的纪念；第二，投资圈大家熟悉的木头姐，2015年她那张经典PPT，把人类文明未来所有技术路径都列在上面，告诉大家...

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260115200917953ced23&s=b><strong>睿见Economy</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>专题：2025微博财经之夜暨北京财经大V联盟年会2025微博财经之夜暨北京财经大V联盟年会于1月15日在北京举行。前东北证券首席经济学家付鹏出席并演讲。付鹏在演讲中提到了2015、2016年的两个历史事件：第一，当年埃隆·马斯克的SpaceX失败，他含泪的画面，是对人类文明勇于挑战、颠覆的纪念；第二，投资圈大家熟悉的木头姐，2015年她那张经典PPT，把人类文明未来所有技术路径都列在上面，告诉大家...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260115200917953ced23&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU1935042215.USD","symbol_name":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME  \"AA\" (USD) INC 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(HKD) INC","LU0823421416.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) INC"},"translate_title":"Fu Peng: Nvidia fell by 70% in 2022. Many people thought it was over, but it turned out to have completed a gorgeous turn","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDY":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"NVDG":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"NVDA":1.88,"NVDU":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"NVII":0.6},"content_text":"专题：2025微博财经之夜暨北京财经大V联盟年会2025微博财经之夜暨北京财经大V联盟年会于1月15日在北京举行。前东北证券首席经济学家付鹏出席并演讲。付鹏在演讲中提到了2015、2016年的两个历史事件：第一，当年埃隆·马斯克的SpaceX失败，他含泪的画面，是对人类文明勇于挑战、颠覆的纪念；第二，投资圈大家熟悉的木头姐，2015年她那张经典PPT，把人类文明未来所有技术路径都列在上面，告诉大家这就是未来，让大家把钱给她，她来投资。“大家称她为女版巴菲特，我一直跟很多人说她不是，她和巴菲特完全不同，她更像二级市场里的一级市场投资人。”付鹏说。他认为，作为产业、技术，早期投资所谓泡沫并非坏事，需要这样冒风险的资本。人类历史往前翻一百多年，扬帆远航需要资本支持，可能是国王、贵族支持，需要有愿意冒风险、钱、船、人都回不来的人去挑战、支持。所以，整个产业生命周期必然经历早期一级市场投资、估值泡沫、估值杀泡沫阶段。付鹏指出，2022年是产业生命周期重要一年。“从2015、2016年到2022年，已过去六年，这六年中，我们并不确定，不像现在这么确定是AI、人工智能。那时所有人只知道需要一场技术革命，因为越来越多错配的生产关系，使世界秩序越来越不稳定。”他认为，解决方法只有一个，就是科技进步、生产力提高，全世界现在都对技术这一环抱有巨大希望。付鹏举例称，2022年英伟达跌了70%，按炒股票的人理解，跌70%就完了，是泡沫。结果它华丽转身，从一张游戏显卡，转变成AI算力不可或缺的金铲子，一万亿、两万亿、三万亿市值之路开启。这就是标准的产业生命周期路径和逻辑。他认为，2023年年初，ChatGPT横空出世，代表着算力基建端到应用端的曙光出现。截止到今天，大家用的ChatGPT、千问、DeepSeek等，都不是未来真正重要的东西。付鹏强调，在过去一年半，从华盛顿到伦敦，到香港，到中国，大家都在讨论人工智能是不是泡沫，其实泡不泡沫不重要，重要的是这么大基建投下去，到底能否带来投资回报。在付鹏看来，今年很重要，15个月到18个月，将证明这场革命，生产力是拉动生产关系，还是从2015年开始的科技革命都是假的。他指出，如果是真的那对整个人类是好事，对当前陷入困局的生产关系、世界秩序都是好事；若这轮生产力是假的，各国现在都面临错配的生产关系。付鹏进一步指出，生产关系本身还需做很多事，比如以人为本，对居民部门加大福利、补偿等。只有这样，才能保证世界秩序不再次大规模崩塌。所以要聚焦于生产力前行，同时也要聚焦改变各国内部生产关系，最后重塑世界秩序。新浪声明：所有会议实录均为现场速记整理，未经演讲者审阅，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。责任编辑：王翔","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2603602918","isCrawlerRequest":true}