存储盛宴的代价：三星利润翻倍的背后，苹果与惠普的“利润保卫战”才刚刚开始

华尔街见闻01-15

全球科技硬件巨头正面临一场严峻的“利润保卫战”，随着存储组件价格的飙升，行业内部正在经历剧烈的分化。虽然存储芯片制造商迎来了利润的爆发式增长，但处于供应链下游的设备制造商却被迫在牺牲利润率与通过提价抑制需求之间做出艰难抉择。据彭博报道，这一失衡在最新的财务数据中体现得尤为明显。三星上周公布的业绩显示，动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）的平均售价环比跳涨超过30%，非易失性闪存（NAND）芯片价格也...

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SUSTAINABLE US THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (USD) ACC"},"translate_title":"The Price of Storage Feast: Behind Samsung's Profit Doubling, Apple's \"Profit Defense War\" with HP has just begun","themeId":"89397e2804fe27865f8d6ad00f3621cf","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":1.92,"MACW.SI":0.6,"HPQ":1.91,"MU":1.87},"content_text":"全球科技硬件巨头正面临一场严峻的“利润保卫战”，随着存储组件价格的飙升，行业内部正在经历剧烈的分化。虽然存储芯片制造商迎来了利润的爆发式增长，但处于供应链下游的设备制造商却被迫在牺牲利润率与通过提价抑制需求之间做出艰难抉择。\n据彭博报道，这一失衡在最新的财务数据中体现得尤为明显。三星上周公布的业绩显示，动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）的平均售价环比跳涨超过30%，非易失性闪存（NAND）芯片价格也上涨了约20%。这一价格飙升助推三星的利润增长了两倍以上，且这种涨价趋势预计将贯穿整个2026年。\n这种由AI需求驱动的涨价潮，被技术研究公司IDC描述为“前所未有的存储芯片短缺”，并将其视为设备制造商的一场“危机”。市场的反应已十分剧烈：苹果股价在经历了自2022年以来表现最差的一年后，2026年开局再度下跌4.4%，沦为纳斯达克100指数中表现最疲软的股票之一；惠普股价更是跌至2020年11月以来的最低水平。\n分析人士指出，目前的短缺并非传统的周期性波动，而是全球硅晶圆产能的战略性重新分配。这意味着硬件制造商面临的成本压力短期内难以缓解，在这场存储行业的盛宴中，他们不得不为不断攀升的账单买单。\n冰火两重天的股价表现\n过去一年，存储组件价格的飙升造就了美股市场中两极分化的景象。一方面，闪迪公司、美光科技公司和西部数据公司等存储类股票成为市场的大赢家。进入2026年，闪迪以超过60%的涨幅领跑标准普尔500指数，西部数据和美光也位列涨幅榜前列。\n另一方面，硬件巨头则深陷泥潭。苹果股价在2025年仅上涨8.6%，并在新年伊始继续下挫。惠普在2025年市值缩水近三分之一后，2026年初再度下跌6.8%。戴尔自去年10月创下历史新高以来，股价已下跌28%。\nTortoise Capital的高级投资组合经理Rob Thummel指出，这些硬件公司正处于“艰难的境地”。他在接受彭博采访时表示：\n\n只要存储价格居高不下——鉴于AI带来的需求，我们预计这种情况会持续一段时间——市场可能会继续惩罚这些股票。\n\n利润遭受直接侵蚀\n对于面向消费者的硬件产品而言，存储组件不仅是关键部件，更是成本的大头。IDC分析师Francisco Jeronimo指出，存储通常占到智能手机等硬件材料成本的10%至20%。随着成本激增，企业的盈利预期正在被迅速下修。\n惠普受到的冲击尤为显著。该公司高管在电话会议上估计，存储成本的上升将导致其2026年调整后每股收益（EPS）减少30美分。彭博汇总的数据显示，过去一个月内，市场对惠普 2026年净每股收益的普遍预期已被下调了7.1%。\n高盛分析师Katherine Murphy在给客户的报告中写道，惠普是其覆盖范围内受PC利润率和需求压力影响最大的公司。她预计，为了抵消存储芯片等投入成本上升而采取的提价措施，将在2026年下半年对低端消费者的PC购买产生“实质性影响”。\n即便是拥有强大定价权的苹果也难以幸免。Freedom Capital Markets技术研究主管Paul Meeks表示：\n\n未来两年，存储组件成本的上涨幅度之大，甚至会冲击到像苹果这样体量的公司。\n\nHedgeye Risk Management上周也表示，随着存储问题的日益严峻，其对苹果的信心正在减弱。\n难以逆转的供应短缺\n此次供应短缺的性质让市场感到格外担忧。IDC认为，这不同于以往典型的“繁荣-萧条”周期。Francisco Jeronimo在报告中写道：\n\n“这一次不同，这不仅仅是由供需错配驱动的周期性短缺，而是全球硅晶圆产能潜在的、永久性的战略重新分配。”\n\n这种结构性的变化意味着价格压力不会迅速消退。Paul Meeks指出，尽管存储价格具有周期性，但目前的供应极度稀缺，预计短期内不会出现逆转。\n这种压力甚至波及到了为智能手机提供半导体的芯片制造商。由于存储价格上涨带来的风险，瑞穗证券和美国银行近期分别下调了高通和安谋的评级。在这一板块中，Rob Thummel仅对戴尔持乐观态度，原因在于其服务器业务的增长能够部分抵消存储成本带来的逆风。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2603602440","isCrawlerRequest":true}