地缘风险只是插曲？高盛再发预警：供应浪潮持续 2026年油价或向下探底

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智通财经APP获悉，高盛分析师在上周日发布的报告中指出，尽管俄罗斯、委内瑞拉和伊朗的地缘政治风险将持续引发油价震荡，但今年原油供应浪潮将导致市场出现过剩，油价很可能呈现下行趋势。高盛在报告中写道：“全球原油库存不断攀升，且我们预计2026年市场将出现每日230万桶的供应过剩。这意味着，除非出现大规模供应中断或欧佩克实施减产，否则2026年需通过压低油价来放缓非欧佩克产油国的供应增速，同时提振需求...

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Goldman Sachs issues another warning: supply wave continues, oil prices may bottom out in 2026","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，高盛分析师在上周日发布的报告中指出，尽管俄罗斯、委内瑞拉和伊朗的地缘政治风险将持续引发油价震荡，但今年原油供应浪潮将导致市场出现过剩，油价很可能呈现下行趋势。高盛在报告中写道：“全球原油库存不断攀升，且我们预计2026年市场将出现每日230万桶的供应过剩。这意味着，除非出现大规模供应中断或欧佩克实施减产，否则2026年需通过压低油价来放缓非欧佩克产油国的供应增速，同时提振需求稳步增长，才能实现市场再平衡。”高盛预测，布伦特原油和WTI原油今年均价将分别达到每桶56美元和52美元，并于第四季度探底至每桶54美元和50美元，随后在2027年因需求稳固及非欧佩克国家供应增速放缓而温和回升至每桶58美元和54美元的平均水平。高盛分析师特别指出：“我们预计美国政策制定者在中期选举前将倾向于维持强劲能源供应，这将抑制油价持续上行空间。”该行同时表示，基于对2040年前原油需求的预期，仍对原油持“长期建设性”态度。部分原因在于，在替代能源供应有限的背景下，石油化工、航空以及公路运输领域的需求将保持强劲增长。上周高盛发布的调查显示，在全球市场预期供应过剩的背景下，逾1100名跨资产类别客户中59%对原油持悲观或略微悲观态度，市场情绪接近2016年1月以来的月度数据最低点。这项于1月5日至7日开展的调查还显示，创纪录数量的机构投资者将原油列为首选做空标的，进一步加剧了整体看空情绪。受伊朗紧张局势支撑买盘影响，原油期货周一连续第三个交易日小幅上涨。当前特朗普政府正在权衡如何应对该国自1979年伊斯兰革命以来对神权统治最严峻的挑战所引发的致命镇压。凯投宏观在报告中分析称：“伊朗能源产出中断的可能性，对全球原油供应构成的威胁远超委内瑞拉。尤其是伊朗局势不稳，还有可能波及本国以外地区的原油供应。”分析师认为，若伊朗爆发石油工人罢工、“影子舰队”运输受阻，或是出现霍尔木兹海峡航运受限的威胁，油价可能会每桶上涨15至20美元，但这种涨幅大概率难以持久。截至发稿，WTI原油期货价格上涨0.30%，报每桶59.50美元;布伦特原油期货价格上涨0.34%，报每桶64.09美元。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2603575491","isCrawlerRequest":true}