中信建投：看好26年高端消费复苏投资机会中前期刚需性强品类率先复苏

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智通财经APP获悉，中信建投发布研报称，伴随股市上涨带来的财富效应，2025年Q3以来国内高端消费逐步复苏，从国际奢侈品品牌大中华区表现、高端商场回暖等方面已得到验证。该行看好26年高端消费复苏的投资机会，高端消费不同品类的复苏时点和强度主要由VIC客群占比、财富增加后的消费顺序/刚需程度、供给弹性、消费趋势四个维度决定，该行认为高端消费中前期刚需性强的品类(并非指生活必需，而是高端人群基于身份...

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recovering","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"82020":0.6,"02020":0.9,"02373":0.9,"ANPDY":0.6},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，中信建投发布研报称，伴随股市上涨带来的财富效应，2025年Q3以来国内高端消费逐步复苏，从国际奢侈品品牌大中华区表现、高端商场回暖等方面已得到验证。该行看好26年高端消费复苏的投资机会，高端消费不同品类的复苏时点和强度主要由VIC客群占比、财富增加后的消费顺序/刚需程度、供给弹性、消费趋势四个维度决定，该行认为高端消费中前期刚需性强的品类(并非指生活必需，而是高端人群基于身份地位/社交场景下的阶层刚需/社交刚需)率先复苏，后期VIC客群占比大的品类高弹性，供给格局持续好的最为持久，符合未来消费趋势的有额外β，财富效应的持续性越强、可选属性更突出的品类弹性会更大。中信建投主要观点如下：高净值人群是支撑高端消费的主要来源之一，股市上涨带来的财富效应对高端消费复苏有重要贡献根据贝恩数据，24年全球高端奢侈品消费人数约3亿人，人群数量庞大，其中2%-3%的核心VIC用户贡献40%+销售额且比例在持续提升。相比于楼市，股市的财富效应近年更为明显，2025年股市上行带动2025年底A股/港股总市值达123万亿元/48万亿港币，较24年底净增24.5万亿元/12.7万亿港元。高端消费正在复苏进行中的三个验证点1)国际奢侈品品牌在24年走弱态势后25Q2起逐步恢复，25Q3各集团(除开云)亚太地区收入增速均已回正增，中国本土市场亦在改善;2)我国高端零售物业也于2024年底、2025年初开始复苏，以太古和恒隆地产为例，2024年承压后、2025年起进入温和复苏通道，出租率逐步恢复、销售额改善趋势明显，其中顶奢商场表现更优。3)全球奢侈市场在25Q3开始亦进入到复苏阶段。如何看待高端消费各品类复苏节奏和投资机会复盘全球奢侈品过去5年的情况，根据贝恩的数据，2019-2025E年间全球奢侈品市场增速最快的是豪华游轮、私人飞机、高端餐饮、个人奢侈品(皮具珠宝鞋服美妆)、奢侈酒店、高端家居;个人奢侈品中，预计2025年珠宝表现最优(增长4%-6%)，鞋服等更可选品类明显收缩约5%-7%。除了奢侈品消费倾向在商品间的大幅分化外，服务体验占比也在持续提升，2025年奢侈体验占比提升至20%，2019-2025E复合增速4%、继续跑赢整体市场。该行认为高端消费不同品类的复苏时点和强度主要由VIC客群占比、财富增加后的消费顺序/刚需程度、供给弹性、消费趋势四个维度决定，其中前三个是短期因素、第四个是长期因素但是近年变化很快。从细分子领域来看，前期刚需性强的品类(并非指生活必需，而是高端人群基于身份地位/社交场景下的阶层刚需/社交刚需等)率先复苏，后期VIC客群占比大的品类高弹性，供给格局持续好的最为持久，符合未来消费趋势的有额外β，财富效应的持续性越强、可选属性更突出的品类弹性会更大。高端消费复苏投资赛道和标的盘点该行覆盖板块中，首推奢侈品珠宝及皮具消费，其次是国货高端美妆还有高端户外运动。包括：黄金珠宝(老铺黄金、周大福)、美妆板块(毛戈平)、运动服饰(安踏体育)、医美板块(爱美客、锦波生物、美丽田园医疗健康)。其他高端消费，建议关注高端商业地产、高端住宅地产、博彩、私人飞机、高端旅游及餐饮、白酒等领域。风险提示1)宏观经济和财富周期风险；2)消费者需求不达预期的风险；3)政策监管风险。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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中信建投：看好26年高端消费复苏投资机会 中前期刚需性强品类率先复苏

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中信建投：看好26年高端消费复苏投资机会中前期刚需性强品类率先复苏