美国大行亮眼财报背后：消费者储蓄投资双增长，低收入群体逾期率攀升现隐忧

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智通财经APP注意到，尽管美国人似乎正深陷负担能力危机，但该国的大型银行并未感受到这种压力。消费者支出正在增长，居民在储蓄的同时也在进行投资，而坏账信用卡的损失正在下降。这与调查报告中显示的消极情绪以及对物价高企的阵阵抱怨形成了一个谜团，但在贷款机构看来，至少 2026 年的经济前景表现强劲。这是本周美国银行(BAC.US)、花旗集团(C.US)、摩根大通(JPM.US)和富国银行(WFC.US)...

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is a hidden concern","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c63f0d893012f9b49909ae8f25f2bab0","symbols_score_info":{"JPM":2,"C":2,"BAC":0.72},"content_text":"智通财经APP注意到，尽管美国人似乎正深陷负担能力危机，但该国的大型银行并未感受到这种压力。消费者支出正在增长，居民在储蓄的同时也在进行投资，而坏账信用卡的损失正在下降。这与调查报告中显示的消极情绪以及对物价高企的阵阵抱怨形成了一个谜团，但在贷款机构看来，至少 2026 年的经济前景表现强劲。这是本周美国银行(BAC.US)、花旗集团(C.US)、摩根大通(JPM.US)和富国银行(WFC.US)在第四季度财报中传达的信息。各家高管均表示，家庭和小企业保持了韧性。这些机构一直在关注形势是否恶化，但目前并未发现。摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙周二表示，未来 6 到 12 个月的情况看起来相当积极。“消费者有钱，”他表示，“尽管就业市场略有疲软，但工作岗位依然存在。还有来自‘大美丽法案’的大量刺激资金正在涌入。”美国银行首席财务官阿拉斯泰尔·博思威克在周三补充称，消费者正处于“极佳状态”。尽管整体经济的储蓄率开始下降，但博思威克并未发现人们为了维持生计而增加借贷、减少储蓄的迹象。截至 2025 年底，美银零售客户持有的投资资产增长了 16%，达到约 6000 亿美元，这主要得益于全年 190 亿美元的资金流入。“消费者的支出仍在增加，这与经济增长相符，”博思威克补充道。周三发布的美国 11 月零售销售数据支持了这一观点，该数据显示，在汽车购买反弹和假日购物的推动下，零售销售创下了自 7 月以来的最强劲增长。从第三个角度来看，富国银行首席执行官查理·沙夫详细介绍该行监测的那些用以发现潜在问题的替代性早期指标。“我们观察了诸如包含失业补助流向的支票账户、直接存款金额、透支活动和支付流出等情况，并没有观察到趋势发生重大转变，”他表示。那么，到底发生了什么？毫无疑问，在某些领域，负担能力确实是一个普遍问题——例如住房和医疗。在食品和汽油等其他领域，由于过去通胀的影响，价格仍远高于新冠疫情前的水平。这对人们对其支出的感受产生了持久的影响。与此同时，那些收入最低的人群——其中许多人根本不是大银行的服务对象——正承受着实实在在的压力。根据纽约联储消费者信用委员会的数据，全美范围内信用卡欠款逾期超过 90 天的借款人比例从 2022 年底的不足 8% 跃升至去年底的 12% 以上。汽车贷款逾期率也有所上升。大型银行信用卡不良债务损失正在下降但这并没有转化为大型银行的实质性阵痛。对于这些大银行来说，信用卡的逾期率并未恶化，而 2025 年这些贷款机构的实际坏账损失占总余额的比例反而有所下降。即使是在第一资本金融和同步金融等尚未公布第四季度数据的专门信用卡公司，预计其净坏账核销率也仅会微幅上升，且仍将显著低于 2024 年底的水平。美国总统特朗普已将目光投向拥有租赁房屋的大型企业以及信用卡的高利率，将其视为缓解负担能力抱怨的、听起来颇得民心的手段。大多数大银行对此强烈反对。诚然，部分原因是这会严重损害其利润，但银行业也可能因此缩减信贷，尤其是针对风险最高的借款人。“这将限制那些最需要信贷的人获得资金，并对经济产生有害影响，”花旗集团首席财务官马克·梅森表示。摩根大通对这一潜在政策(尽管目前该政策仍具投机性且界定模糊)的态度最为强硬，称银行将考虑采取一切手段进行反击，包括提起诉讼。当规模较小的美国银行在本月晚些时候开始公布财报时，市场可能会看到更多消费者压力显现的迹象，但在失业率依然受控的情况下，这种压力似乎不太可能深入。虽然负担能力对某些人来说可能是一场真正的危机，而持久的“价格冲击”对另一些人来说是个问题，但对银行而言，美国消费似乎注定将继续推动经济——以及它们的利润——向前发展。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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