铜价飙升逼退价格战，空调行业转身“保利求生”

新京报01-14

当铜价一路高歌，成为悬在空调行业头顶的“达摩克利斯之剑”，一场关于生存与利润的静默战争已然打响。曾经为争夺市场而杀至千元的价格战火渐熄，多家企业悄然提价、收缩补贴，行业正从“以价换量”转向“保利求生”。与此同时，“铝代铜”的技术路径成为部分企业的救命稻草，也引发了巨头与追随者的路线分野。在原材料成本高压下，市场集中度不断提升，一面是头部品牌多线出击，另一面是中小品牌在夹缝中求生，2026年行业正在...

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profit\"","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"81810":0.6,"000333":1.91,"HXXD.SI":0.6,"MIUmain":0.6,"01169":0.66,"00300":1.91,"000651":1.94},"content_text":"当铜价一路高歌，成为悬在空调行业头顶的“达摩克利斯之剑”，一场关于生存与利润的静默战争已然打响。曾经为争夺市场而杀至千元的价格战火渐熄，多家企业悄然提价、收缩补贴，行业正从“以价换量”转向“保利求生”。与此同时，“铝代铜”的技术路径成为部分企业的救命稻草，也引发了巨头与追随者的路线分野。在原材料成本高压下，市场集中度不断提升，一面是头部品牌多线出击，另一面是中小品牌在夹缝中求生，2026年行业正在重塑。 铜价大涨，有企业退出价格战近期，奥克斯、美的、美博、夏宝电器、志高等空调厂商传出涨价消息。随后，格力电器明确表示，响应2026年家电国家补贴政策，切实让利消费者，承诺格力家用空调不涨价。新京报贝壳财经记者注意到，目前空调产品售价相较于2025年618期间有所上涨。2025年电商平台出现空调“千元机”，美的、格力也推出了2000元以下的产品争夺市场。“2025年5月下旬以来，空调线上渠道均价有一定幅度的回落，但线下渠道均价稳中有升。整体来看，线上平台竞争更加激烈，均价下降相对明显。”奥维云网大家电事业部副总经理杨超介绍。1月13日，新京报贝壳财经记者浏览电商平台发现，美的空调大1.5匹新一级能效变频挂式酷省电日常价2699元，直降750元，再叠加国补后2025年618期间价格为1559.2元。目前该产品补贴后售价2294.15元，涨价近735元。米家1.5匹新一级能效变频挂机巨省电原价2299元，直降600元，以旧换新抵扣310元，国补再减277.8元，2025年618期间售价最后能达到1111.2元。目前该产品补贴后售价1995.8元，涨价884.6元。格力空调1.5匹新一级能效变频天仪型号，日常价2799元，叠加国补499.8元和企业直降400元后，2025年618期间补贴后售价1919.2元。目前该产品补贴后售价2464.15元，涨价544.95元。在京东2025年6月空调金榜中，上述小米、美的、格力三款产品位列前三名。2026年1月空调金榜中，小米上述款空调继续排名第一，格力上述款空调排名上升至第二，美的上述款空调排名退至第四。由此可见，三家空调企业都下调了企业补贴力度。空调品牌减少补贴力度背后是来自原材料价格上涨的压力。2025年10月以来，空调生产的重要原材料铜的价格一路飙升，相关机构预测，2026年上半年伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜价将达到12750美元/吨，虽预计下半年将回调至11200美元/吨，但全年整体仍处于高位水平。在家电产品中，因为空调用铜的比重较大，铜价上涨对空调行业的影响非常重要。空调的核心原材料，主要包括铜管、不锈钢和注塑件，其中铜的成本在空调整体成本中占比约为22%—25%。产业在线分析师龙飞认为，应对铜价上涨的策略，不同企业采取的态度也不尽相同。有些企业表示，要生存下去，规模不增长的话，很多边际效益维持不了，故在适当时候还是会采取价格策略。另有一些企业则表示，现在空调销售成本和零售价格是亏损的，大部分企业亏不起，不太可能再打激进的价格战。“铝代铜”或成中小企业“救命稻草”价格战叠加原材料上涨，行业寻找替代方案，铝是当下暖通空调用铜首要替代材料。2025年底，中国制冷学会团体标准《房间空调器用铝管翅式热交换器生产线建设规范》发布，与“铝代铜”相关的国家标准《房间空气调节器用热交换器》也正在修订中。“铝代铜”也引发市场关注，随后，多家空调企业签订自律公约：承诺不会互相恶意攻击、抹黑，一起科学宣传铝换热器空调的特点。不过，格力电器近日明确表示，暂无“铝代铜”相关计划。此前，格力电器董事长董明珠多次拒绝“铝代铜”。“铝代铜”可能是中小企业的“速效救心丸”。2024年8月开始的“国补”政策，对空调内销规模起到了充分拉动作用。据产业在线测算，2024年因政策拉动带来的销量，约占全年销量的5%。但到了2025年，政策效应出现边际减弱，三季度之后转向负增长，四季度跌幅加大，全年内销出货量与2024年基本持平。“对于业内企业而言，国补政策一方面拉动了潜在的市场需求，另一方面也让中小品牌丧失竞争优势，由于头部品牌纷纷投入子品牌下沉市场竞争，中小品牌价格优势不再，地位尴尬。”龙飞如是说。产业在线数据显示，空调企业头部品牌尤其是排名前六的品牌，这两年的市场份额扩张明显，而其他品牌的份额在下降。同比来看，TOP6的增幅也远超行业和其他品牌。 “随着传统小渠道收缩，腰部品牌出现下滑趋势，奥克斯、海信都面临压力。一些品牌从2024年到2025年收缩力度大。”某空调品牌北京区域业务负责人王力（化名）介绍，由于传统分销商批量消亡导致市场缩量。有头部品牌砍掉北京运营中心，与天津运营中心合并，北京仅保留了一些业务区域操盘。国联民生证券分析师管泉森认为，整机成本优化空间在5%—6%。行业龙头过往形成的“纯铜”机型偏好，或仍是规模化应用的主要制约，《自律公约》落地成为破除铝方案偏见的第一步，在成本压力之下，有望为产业盈利形成边际贡献。在杨超看来，2026年空调行业的基调很明确，即追求健康经营，核心是吸取了2025年许多企业“增收不增利”甚至亏损的教训。近期各空调品牌的发布会都聚焦于推广中高端结构化产品，目的是拉动产品均价和盈利能力提升。 行业格局生变，市场集中度提升产业在线数据显示，2025年受消费分层、渠道变化和国补政策等因素影响，4500元以上价位段的空调销量小幅上升，均价在2500元以下价位段品牌份额则提升更快，挤压了中间价格段的市场份额。在竞争激烈的背景下，近年来空调行业的品牌竞争策略分化，一种类似小米模式，主抓性价比细分市场，或者在专业化空调领域拓展，如金鸿盛、宝士等。另一种是综合性企业的多品牌战略，例如美的系（COLMO、华凌、小天鹅）、海尔系（卡萨帝、Leader）、格力的晶弘、TCL推出小白、奥克斯推出华蒜、Aufit等。尽管头部企业占据主要份额，家用空调对新兴品牌的吸引力仍在。据不完全统计，目前国内空调市场的品牌数已经超过60个，2025年还吸引一些新品牌进驻，如美邦电器上线“风神之眼”，追觅也推出空调。此外，小米武汉基地也已在2025年三季度落地生产。小米空调是行业新势力，小米集团合伙人、总裁卢伟冰在2025年年初提到，“小米空调2024年是中国市场第四名，2025年目标坐稳第三名，最近提出2030年目标，在中国市场空调要做到数一数二。虽然目标蛮难，但我认为小米机会很大。”美的、格力、海尔长期位居空调市场前三，按海尔智家2024年空调营收490亿元来计算，小米空调要达到第三，业务营收要突破500亿元。如此一来，美的、格力、海尔等品牌的空调业务压力也会增大。2025年前三季度，以空调为主业的格力电器业绩出现双降。2025年年中，小米空调销量跃居第三的消息此起彼伏，同年10月，小米武汉智能家电工厂一期竣工投产，峰值年产能可达700万套，预计年产值140亿元，2026年将开启空调产品大规模量产，将进一步冲击2026年市场格局。产业在线数据显示，2025年国内空调产能利用率有下滑趋势，而在市场增速放缓、高成本压力下，2026年品牌洗牌将进一步加剧，部分中小品牌可能就此出局，或者转向外销市场。“行业未来属于那些能将技术研发、品牌建设和全球本地化运营深度融合，并坚持长期主义的企业。它们不再只是产品生产商和出口商，而要向能为全球多元市场提供绿色、智能解决方案的价值创造者身份转变。”龙飞认为，转型之路虽然充满挑战，但这正是中国空调产业从制造大国迈向品牌强国的必经阶段。新京报贝壳财经记者 陈维城编辑 杨娟娟校对 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