阿里巴巴：AI驱动下的全栈布局与全球扩张机遇

中金公司01-12

观点聚焦投资建议本文主要聚焦阿里云在AI时代的战略转型与发展前景，重点突出其全栈技术布局、国内外业务双轮驱动的增长逻辑，核心解决行业增长动能切换、技术壁垒构建及盈利空间释放三大核心问题。理由全栈技术筑牢核心壁垒，构建AI时代竞争护城河。AI时代下阿里云提升战略高度，打造覆盖大模型、智算基础设施、AI开发平台的全栈技术体系。通义系列模型通过开源策略持续领先全球，大幅提升资本开支计划，同时自研核心硬件...

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个可用区的基础设施网络，实现算力供给的相对可控与规模化部署。同时，百炼平台与魔搭社区构建起开发者生态闭环，形成模型开源引流、算力变现、生态增值的独特商业模式，技术壁垒与生态优势持续强化。国内AI渗透与国际化扩张双轮驱动增长。我们估算未来3 年阿里云收入CAGR有望超过30%。国内市场上，AI大模型训练与推理需求出现，互联网、金融、汽车等行业加速智能化转型，阿里云凭借标杆案例复制与Cross-sell策略，持续提升市场份额。海外业务依托中企出海浪潮与本土市场突破，通过数据中心全球扩张、AI产品国际化适配，服务超22 万家出海企业，同时借助通义千问开源优势吸引Airbnb等国际客户，我们认为海外业务有望成为阿里云未来的核心增长极。利润率提升空间大，盈利韧性有望超预期。随着AI收入占比持续提高、海外高毛利业务占比提升，以及成本端规模效应的进一步显现，我们估算其利润率有望突破15%。市场此前聚焦短期投入压力，却忽视了AI驱动下收入结构优化与成本杠杆释放的双重盈利弹性，我们认为未来其盈利提升空间具备较强确定性。盈利预测与估值目前阿里港股和美股均交易于26/18 倍FY26/FY27 非通用准则市盈率。基本维持收入和盈利预测，基于电商14x P/E和云业务8xP/S，维持美股和港股目标价204 美元/197 港元（均对应35/24倍FY26/FY27 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