港股“子”曰 | 同一件事两种完全不同的理解

每日经济新闻01-09

昨天（1月8日），笔者在文章中谈到了近期阿里、美团等互联网龙头的持续下跌。但昨天晚上，在美股市场，却有意外惊喜，阿里巴巴美股大涨5.26%，而今天，阿里港股也随之展开反弹。阿里、美团此前的下跌，主要与管理层发布商业平台“监管新规”有关。新规明确禁止商业平台大数据“杀熟”，由此引发市场对互联网巨头的短期担忧。但同一件事，放在美股市场，阿里没有下跌，反而大涨，说明不同的市场，理解可能完全不一样。难怪...

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thing","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"89988":0.6,"HMTD.SI":0.6,"ALBmain":0.6,"03690":1.88,"MPNGY":1.88,"BABA":1.93,"METmain":0.6,"09988":1.93,"HBBD.SI":0.6},"content_text":"昨天（1月8日），笔者在文章中谈到了近期阿里、美团等互联网龙头的持续下跌。但昨天晚上，在美股市场，却有意外惊喜，阿里巴巴美股大涨5.26%，而今天，阿里港股也随之展开反弹。阿里、美团此前的下跌，主要与管理层发布商业平台“监管新规”有关。新规明确禁止商业平台大数据“杀熟”，由此引发市场对互联网巨头的短期担忧。但同一件事，放在美股市场，阿里没有下跌，反而大涨，说明不同的市场，理解可能完全不一样。难怪昨天晚上，知名私募人士但斌也发微博称“同样一件事情，国内（内资）和外资的判断不一样”。或许，外资会认为，管理层的监管新规，其力度没有预期中强，这只是短期影响，长期看，有助于行业的良性发展，反而是好事。所以，阿里股价才会大涨。其实，同样一件事，不仅仅内资和外资的判断不一样，对阿里和美团的看法，似乎也明显不同。从昨天南向资金的买卖情况来看，南向资金净买入阿里巴巴港股的金额约为3.5亿港元。今天来看，这些资金是抄到底了。但对美团却不一样，昨天南向资金净卖出美团约2亿港元。再看美团的表现，昨天跌了3.35%，今天盘中跌幅又超过2%。由此可见，同样是外卖市场的深度参与者，市场对阿里和美团的态度，也明显不同。我觉得，最大的区别，或许还是在于阿里在其他领域的领先。比如在人工智能领域，尽管美团也有投入，但相比阿里，确实太少太少。2025年到2027年，阿里巴巴在人工智能领域的投资计划是3800亿元，这就是差距。虽然在同一件事上，内资、外资、机构、散户，可能会存在不同的理解。但在有些事情上，最终又会形成共识。观点上形成的共识，最终也会体现在股价变化的趋势上。而当下，几乎可以形成的一点共识是，今年不论A股还是港股，市场的主线，依然是硬科技，包括人工智能、芯片、人形机器人等。从今年以来港股上市的新股来看，也是按照这条主线在运行。比如壁仞科技、精锋医疗、智谱、天数智芯、MINIMAX等，还有即将在港交所上市的兆易创新，皆是如此。我专门看了一下近期港股打新的热度。壁仞科技，认购倍数超过2300倍，上市股价就翻倍，市值约900亿港元。智谱，认购倍数约1159倍，上市后累计涨幅超过40%，总市值超600亿港元。天数智芯，认购倍数超400倍。精锋医疗，认购倍数超1000倍。今天上市的MINIMAX，认购倍数也高达1800多倍。更有意思的是，这些新股如壁仞科技、精锋医疗、智谱、MINIMAX、天数智芯没有一家公司盈利，都是亏损的，市场却依然愿意去追捧，其实也说明了当下市场的偏好，不是说喜欢亏损股，而是偏好硬科技。封面图片来源：图片来源：每日经济新闻 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港股“子”曰 | 同一件事 两种完全不同的理解

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港股“子”曰 | 同一件事两种完全不同的理解