聊天机器人救不了AI产业？物理机器人希望很大，但面临致命挑战_极客网

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极客网·机器人1月12日当下，整个AI产业正被一个尖锐问题拷问：“砸了这么多钱，你凭什么赚钱？”AI产业曾有一套看似清晰的盈利逻辑：企业采购英伟达、AMD、博通的芯片，搭配Arista Networks设备，砸钱建起数据中心，便坐等技术变现。但如今，“投资猛增、回报渺茫”的现实，让这套底层逻辑遭遇到投资者的集体质疑，AI的光环正在加速褪去。若几千亿美元的投入，最终只换来更智能的聊天机器人，这样的“...

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Physical robots have great hopes, but face deadly challenges _ Geek.com","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"AVGO":0.9,"NVDA":1.86},"content_text":"极客网·机器人1月12日当下，整个AI产业正被一个尖锐问题拷问：“砸了这么多钱，你凭什么赚钱？”AI产业曾有一套看似清晰的盈利逻辑：企业采购英伟达、AMD、博通的芯片，搭配Arista Networks设备，砸钱建起数据中心，便坐等技术变现。但如今，“投资猛增、回报渺茫”的现实，让这套底层逻辑遭遇到投资者的集体质疑，AI的光环正在加速褪去。若几千亿美元的投入，最终只换来更智能的聊天机器人，这样的“创新”显然撑不起市场的期待。就在全行业陷入迷茫之际，一道曙光浮现：让AI赋能实体自动化设备，尤其是机器人，被视作AI突破盈利困境的关键抓手。AI机器人落地难：机械手“笨拙”是关键中的关键机器人的普及进程始终步履维艰，核心症结在于三大核心障碍尚未突破。其一，需强大的智能算法支撑，才能让机器人精准协调各类传感器与驱动装置；其二，如何将智能决策转化为稳定、可重复的肢体动作，仍是行业攻坚的难点；其三，居高不下的成本，更是制约其规模化应用的关键瓶颈。这其中，人形机器人产业的核心瓶颈在于难以复刻人类精准灵活的肢体动作。贝恩咨询预测，未来3年，人形机器人的智能与感知能力将实现大幅跃升，有望在零售服务、货物分拣等封闭场景中胜任特定工作。从商业逻辑来看，AI要突破盈利困局，机器人无疑是最佳切口，但现实难题是：当前的机器人普遍“笨拙”，无法胜任绝大多数复杂工作。业内共识是，除非工程师能研发出媲美人类手掌的精巧灵敏机械手，否则人形机器人只能局限于搬运货箱、分拣零件等基础重复性工作。但从技术现状来看，这一目标仍遥不可及。马斯克曾感慨：“对人手研究得越深入，就越惊叹其精妙——四根手指加一根拇指的组合、特定的活动自由度、不同肌肉的力量差异、精准的手指长度配比，每一处都是自然进化的奇迹。”当前，人形机器人不仅技术不成熟，造价更是高得离谱——动辄5万美元以上的成本，使其相比人力劳动的性价比优势大打折扣。Plus One Robotics创始人兼CEO埃里克·涅韦斯（Erik Nieves）直言，除了软件技术的缺失，硬件层面更缺少能实现高精度、大运动幅度的微型马达和驱动器。人类手部的肌腱与手臂肌肉的分布，是经过亿万年进化的最优解；而要让机器人手部达到同等灵巧度，需在每个指关节都安装微型马达，这在当前技术条件下难以实现。如今机器人的手部动作协调性，仅相当于蹒跚学步的幼儿堆叠积木的水平。万亿愿景与现实鸿沟：机器人能撑起AI的未来吗？尽管现状严峻，但行业对人形机器人的未来仍充满期待。英伟达CEO黄仁勋断言，人形机器人将成为有史以来规模最大的产业之一；特斯拉CEO马斯克更是放言，旗下擎天柱（Optimus）机器人或将成为史上最重磅的产品。华尔街分析师的预测更为激进：到2050年，全球人形机器人产业营收规模将达到5万亿至10万亿美元；加拿大皇家银行资本市场（RBC Capital Markets）甚至预测，未来人形机器人的部署数量可能超过全球道路上行驶的汽车。值得注意的是，自动驾驶本质上就是“带轮子的机器人”。愿景看似光明，但技术瓶颈、资金压力与社会适配性等多重阻碍，让这一蓝图的实现绝非朝夕之功。尤其机械手的“笨拙”短板，成为制约人形机器人商业化的致命伤。目前来看，在AI赋能机器人的变革浪潮中，中国企业正成为核心力量。2025年，中国工业机器人安装量约达29.5万台，远超美国的3.4万台、德国的2.7万台，更碾压英国的2500台。即便在Kickstarter等海外创新平台，诸多定价合理的新型机器人产品，背后也多是中国初创企业的身影。可以预见，若机器人时代真正来临，中国企业将站在产业变革的最前沿。一言以蔽之，不少人都相信AI机器人是AI盈利困局的破局点，但机器人真的救得了烧钱的AI吗？一切有待时间验证。（小刀）","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2602856044","isCrawlerRequest":true}