传统电商寒冬：阿里淘天，迎风逆行！

商业早八点01-12

阿里2025年第四季度财报公布前夜，市场情绪再度紧绷，北美市场开始流传阿里本季度业绩不太妙。作为中国电商与AI领域的双巨头，阿里的估值建立在三大核心支柱上：淘天电商、阿里云和淘闪业务。而本次业绩预警，恰恰针对这三方面：淘天电商CMR增速下调、阿里云增速“正常”、淘闪减亏“一般”。01 .淘天电商：寒冬中的逆风宏观环境与政策变动让淘天电商本季度面临巨大挑战。国家统计局数据显示，10月、11月实物电商...

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.阿里云：增速“正常”背后的高预期阿里云增速被市场赋予过高期望。2025年9月季度34%的增速将市场期待抬高到一个不切实际的水平，部分外资行甚至将12月季度的预期增速调至38%。实际上，阿里在callback会议上，管理层一直在尝试降低市场预期，但卖方机构仍坚持高预测。现在所谓的增速“正常”，实际是指35%左右的同比增长，与9月季度基本持平。AI驱动增长引擎依然强劲。摩根士丹利预计阿里云营收增长将保持强劲势头，同比增速有望加速至35%以上，且未来在2027财年有进一步加速至40%的潜力。AI相关产品收入已连续九个季度实现三位数同比增长，占外部客户收入比例超过20%。需求强劲程度甚至超出了供给能力，管理层重申“需求增速快于人工智能服务器能力的提升速度”。03 .淘闪业务：减亏“一般”的真相亏损收窄幅度成为焦点。根据最新数据，淘闪业务25年四季度亏损预计在200亿+水平。这一数字与高盛的预期基本吻合。从单均亏损看，市场预期存在较大分歧。一些分析认为，淘闪12月季度的单均亏损约为3.2元，按日均7000万单计算，单季亏损在220-230亿之间。UE改善已取得实质性进展。管理层表示，与7月/8月相比，闪购业务本季度迄今的单位经济亏损已下降一半。这主要得益于产品结构改善（非饮料订单超过75%）、平均客单价提升以及配送成本的下降。非餐即时零售进展快速，同时比竞争对手亏损收敛速度更快。10月淘闪总订单7400万，11月达到8000万单，预计12月将保持在7200万单以上。04 .三线作战的战略困境阿里巴巴当前面临三线作战的战略困境：同时在货架电商、即时零售和云业务三大战线投入巨资。货架电商基本盘继续被拼多多和抖音侵蚀。赚钱的盘子低迷，而花钱的两个盘子（即时零售和云业务）短期无法盈利，这种局面自然引发市场悲观情绪。管理层明确表态闪购份额必须达到市场绝对第一，这意味着在较长时间内需要持续大量投入。这种战略决心虽然显示了公司的长期承诺，但也不可避免地引发了对短期盈利能力的担忧。不过，阿里核心电商的盈利能力依然稳健。中信建投分析指出，若扣除闪购业务的影响，阿里巴巴核心电商业务的EBITA实现了同比中个位数的正增长。05.写在最后市场对阿里Q4业绩的过度反应，更多反映了预期与现实管理的落差，而非基本面的根本恶化。近日阿里股价的下跌，很大程度上是市场对预期修正的过度反应，而非公司基本面的根本性转变。随着今天阿里与外资行的预沟通信息逐渐清晰，三大业务线的真实表现将水落石出。真正的考验在于阿里能否在投入与产出、短期亏损与长期壁垒之间找到平衡点。阿里作为中国极少数的“全栈AI企业”，其长期价值仍被市场低估。就像一位分析师所言：“阿里是最像谷歌的中国公司，自有人工智能全系统模型+齐备的行业生态，且都处于行业顶尖地位”。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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