阿里、京东们没做到的事，为什么沃尔玛做到了？

蓝鲸财经01-12

文｜锦缎服务消费的风越刮越大，作为其中最大体量的行业之一的零售，却起起伏伏，未曾有像美股那样的长牛。中美零售生存环境的差别，确实像隔着一个太平洋；但即使水土有别，洋品牌山姆中国在零售哀鸿遍野的今天却仍在高歌猛进。因此，不管是为了在服务消费主题掘金潮中厘清思绪，还是琢磨商业模式因地制宜还是寰宇普适，当下，镜鉴美国零售牛股——沃尔玛，都迫在眉睫。01 沃尔玛长牛，终成全球市值最大的零售公司中国零售市场...

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href=https://www.lanjinger.com/d/1767919295434031427><strong>蓝鲸财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>文｜锦缎服务消费的风越刮越大，作为其中最大体量的行业之一的零售，却起起伏伏，未曾有像美股那样的长牛。中美零售生存环境的差别，确实像隔着一个太平洋；但即使水土有别，洋品牌山姆中国在零售哀鸿遍野的今天却仍在高歌猛进。因此，不管是为了在服务消费主题掘金潮中厘清思绪，还是琢磨商业模式因地制宜还是寰宇普适，当下，镜鉴美国零售牛股——沃尔玛，都迫在眉睫。01 沃尔玛长牛，终成全球市值最大的零售公司中国零售市场...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.lanjinger.com/d/1767919295434031427\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK1615","symbol_name":"港股-互联网","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.lanjinger.com/d/1767919295434031427","article_id":"2602593969","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2602593969","pubTimestamp":1768196015,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lanjinger_stock","name":"蓝鲸财经"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"即使作为一家“老店”，如今的沃尔玛仍没显出疲态。区别在于，沃尔玛做到了，永辉、苏宁、阿里、京东们却未曾做到。物流体系是沃尔玛核心壁垒。在沃尔玛的收入结构中，山姆会员店的收入占比稳定在13%左右。参照沃尔玛在大众商超的定位，其在山姆会员店上，基本复刻了效率模型。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"lanjinger.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"89618":"京东集团-SWR","BK1615":"港股-互联网","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0327786744.USD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 USD","LU0251143458.SGD":"Fidelity Emerging Markets 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沃尔玛长牛，终成全球市值最大的零售公司中国零售市场总是充斥着盛极而衰的故事：永辉超市曾凭借生鲜优势搅动行业格局，苏宁易购以家电连锁模式登顶过零售之巅，居然之家曾经意欲改造云龙混杂的家装行业，如今都深陷亏损、破产的泥沼。电商中国虽然全球领先，但激烈的格局之争从未停歇过，阿里作为中国电商流通规则的开创者，目前面对份额被蚕食也束手无策。而美国商超龙头沃尔玛，全球零售份额达到3.7%，略高于亚马逊的3.6%；同时，沃尔玛市值接近 9000 亿美元（若将亚马逊零售业务单独拆分，其市值与沃尔玛处于同一水平），成为美股前二十大市值中唯一来自传统行业的企业。这家成立于 1962 年的零售巨头，历经折扣店浪潮、电商冲击、全球化竞争等多重考验，却反直觉的霸占全球零售第一宝座已超过30年之久，始终屹立不倒，成为经典的长牛股。即使作为一家“老店”，如今的沃尔玛仍没显出疲态。按照风投女王徐新评价零售企业的金标准——看同店有没有增长来衡量，如今的沃尔玛北美单店收入仍有低个位数的同比增长，零售无长牛论不攻自破。更有耐人寻味的是，沃尔玛商业模型已经超越了“零售无门槛、竞争最惨烈”的经典研究范式，市场给公司的估值甚至高达 40 倍 PE，远超国内零售企业普遍 10 倍左右的市盈率。美股市场对其最新的定价定义，已经是“全渠道零售”综合商：从线下折扣店到仓储会员店，从本土扩张到全球化布局，从线下零售到线上转型，沃尔玛构建了难以撼动的多业态护城河。全渠道零售战略转型是所有零售商都梦寐以求的。当年苏宁想转型线上、当前阿里京东等想转型线下、专业家居零售想转型买手、跨境电商想开拓全球。区别在于，沃尔玛做到了，永辉、苏宁、阿里、京东们却未曾做到。02 六十年打造令人艳羡的全渠道商业模型相对中国市场而言，美国确实是零售行业的沃土，零售在美国流通体系内，有很强的话语权，这是沃尔玛成功的最大前提。由于美国很早就完成了工业化，统一大市场又造就了大生产体制，头部生产商为了对接大规模的消费者需求，更愿意与大型零售商直接合作，独立批发商和分销商的功能被大幅削弱；简单来说，就是天然有近乎于C2M的影子。同时，美国地广人稀、居住分散，中产阶层多分布在城市周边，这种人口分布特征催生了大卖场、仓储超市等聚集型业态。即土地成本低廉使得仓储成本和物流成本可控，成熟的公路网络和物流基础设施，让大宗商品的干线运输成本极低，能够实现全国一盘货。最终导致商品流通环节上，品牌和零售两端高度集中，中间渠道天然被排除，最终形成美国“大零售、小批发”的流通体系，零售商最终掌握了产业链的主导权，流通环节的利润未被复杂的中间环节耗散。在这样独特的产业链价值分工中，零售企业要获得市场份额，要竞争的东西很简单，那就是极致效率下的规模经济，才能在低价竞争中生存，所以沃尔玛从诞生之初就将效率刻入基因中。取得份额领先的沃尔玛又凭借规模优势进一步强者恒强：对上游供应商形成极强的议价能力，将采购成本压至最低；同时还能导入先进的物流系统和精细化管理，比如早在 1970 年代就投入 7 亿美元建设计算机和卫星通信系统，实现对库存和销售数据的实时监控。总结来说，沃尔玛的线下商超业务是其基本盘；其最强效率模型体现在三个方面：定位清晰：大众消费的性价比之选。沃尔玛美国商场坚持“每日低价”的核心策略，聚焦大众消费群体，提供海量 SKU，以生鲜和日用品为引流核心，满足家庭一站式购物需求，消费者经常开车去采购一周所需的物资，便捷性和性价比远高于收一堆快递。物流体系和供应链效率。物流体系是沃尔玛核心壁垒。在美国拥有超过4300家门店作为履约节点，90%的美国人口居住在距其门店10英里范围内；通过持续的数字化改造，沃尔玛将线下门店升级为微型履约中心，提供到店自提和送货上门服务。极致的供应链效率。通过整合订货、交叉配送等流程优化，以及自动化仓储系统，其库存周转天数的持续下降——从1986年的72天降至2023年的40天左右，近3年公司北美门店减少100家，但单平米收入却增长23%， 再次提升了运营效率。成本控制能力。沃尔玛通过规模化采购、自有物业占比高、运营流程优化等多种方式，将运营成本压至行业最低水平。其毛利率虽然不高，但通过严控费用率，实现了稳定的净利率。相比之下，中国流通体系截然不同，呈现“生产庞杂、消费分层”的复杂特征，所以传统批发环节利益关系错综，且极其低效，大量利润被中间环节吞噬，比如即使全国最知名的大单品飞天茅台的出厂价、批发价、零售价都差别巨大，近期i茅台的飞天秒光就是力证。国内商超的巅峰出现在短缺经济时期，那个时候能够拿到货就可以躺着赚钱。所以国内的零售企业，依赖于通道费的联营模式，简单来说绝大部分都是“二房东”，缺乏自主采购、选品和定价能力，毕竟后者是吃亏不讨好的辛苦钱。与供应商一起收割消费者终走向末路。随着过剩经济的到来，电商这种高效的模式，对商超进行了摧枯拉朽般的冲击，线下零售最后也是山姆教大家做人了。即使2023年超市行业开始进行后知后觉的所谓“调改”，也由于病入膏肓再难回天了。可以作为对比的是，美国商超的资产周转率是中国超市龙头企业的2 倍以上，说明表面看着一样，但实际完全就是两种生意。所以在美国的商超，很多商品还比中国便宜，就是因为他们渠道效率极高、加价率极低。不仅仅是线下商业模式领先，在成立20年之后，沃尔玛用了40年的时间最终打造了“全渠道零售”的商业帝国，是更值得我们羡慕的故事。图：沃尔玛发展历程 资料来源：锦缎绘制03 迈向全渠道之一：仓储会员店，跟Costco分庭抗礼，在中国更加成功面对 Costco 在仓储会员店领域的强势竞争，沃尔玛于 1983 年推出山姆会员店（Sam’s Club），如今已成为全球第二大仓储会员店品牌，体量仅次于 Costco。在沃尔玛的收入结构中，山姆会员店的收入占比稳定在13%左右。参照沃尔玛在大众商超的定位，其在山姆会员店上，基本复刻了效率模型。仍基于性价比的差异化定位：山姆会员店定位中高收入家庭和小型企业主，采用“宽品类、窄商品” 的选品策略，SKU 数量控制在 5000个左右，远低于传统超市，通过精选商品和大包装销售，实现极致性价比。会员体系和粘性，则与Costco类似。供应链：除复用沃尔玛的供应链之外，还进一步提升消费者的使用体感。如在履约能力方面，山姆会员店积极拥抱数字化，通过在门店周边布局前置仓，提供“极速达” 即时配送服务，提升购物便利性的同时降低履约成本。成本控制：主要体现在选品。其自有品牌 Member’s Mark 覆盖生鲜、家居等多个品类，年化销售额超百亿美元，占山姆总销售额的 30%，不仅毛利率高于代工品牌，更通过独家供应建立了更高的会员粘性。而在中国市场，沃尔玛的商超效率模型其实不如本土电商，如今也在闭店潮中；但山姆中国却是独树一帜的存在，在线下零售哀鸿遍野的这几年，山姆中国每年的增速都超过9%，单店平均销售额高达 17.0 亿元。相比之下，中国本土的仓储会员店尝试，无论是永辉的仓储店转型，还是盒马 X 会员店，都未能形成真正的竞争力，核心原因在于缺乏选品能力和自有品牌建设，供应链议价能力不足，难以实现极致性价比，陷入“形似而神不似” 的困境。资料来源：公司公告03 迈向全渠道之二：全球化有取有舍沃尔玛多年的全球化历程并非一帆风顺，曾先后进入27个海外国家/地区，但因激烈的本土竞争、消费偏好差异等因素，从德国、日本、韩国等8个市场退出，现身说法证明“零售是一个本土化特征极强的行业”。不过最终沃尔玛海外收入占比仍达到18%左右，成为其全渠道战略的核心支撑。公司的全球化战略核心在于务实——有取有舍：难以适配的市场果断收缩资源，聚焦高潜力核心市场。目前，沃尔玛的海外业务集中在 18 个国家，其中墨西哥和中美洲地区、加拿大、中国三大核心市场又贡献了国际业务收入的80%左右。这些市场要么与美国流通体系相似（如加拿大），要么拥有庞大的消费群体和增长潜力（如中国、墨西哥），能够充分发挥沃尔玛的供应链和运营优势，是其本土效率模型的复制与变形。资料来源：公司公告以墨西哥市场为例，作为沃尔玛最大的海外市场，其成功的关键在于深度本土化业态创新。沃尔玛并未简单复制美国的超级购物中心模式，而是大力发展更贴近当地社区、符合高密度居住和步行消费习惯的 Bodega 社区店。这种小型业态以极致的便利性和高性价比，深度渗透墨西哥市场，成为当地零售行业的标杆。在中国市场，沃尔玛最成功的就是前文提到的山姆会员店。截至 2025 年，沃尔玛在中国拥有超过 800 万的山姆会员用户，电商占比接近 50%，成为中国市场的主要增长驱动力。在印度，沃尔玛并未选择自建实体店，而是斥资 160 亿美元控股印度最大电商平台 Flipkart，通过赋能本土龙头，快速获取 43% 的电商市场份额，绕开了直接运营的政策壁垒和文化差异；在巴西，沃尔玛适配当地消费习惯，增加生鲜和食品品类的占比，优化支付方式，推出符合当地购买力的价格策略。这种有所为有所不为、因地制宜的全球化智慧，让沃尔玛在海外市场实现了高质量增长。公司明确提出，未来五年国际业务的销售额和利润将至少翻倍，其中印度和墨西哥市场将贡献约三分之二的增长动能，国际业务的营业利润率有望在 3-5 年内达到 6%。04 迈向全渠道之三：线上化，有条不紊跟上趋势而非颠覆自我相信大家最为关心的问题是：为什么沃尔玛没有被电商冲垮？从数据上来看：其海外和北美市场中来自电商收入占比分别在25%、19%左右，这与全球、美国的电商化率是一致的。这说明沃尔玛这艘巨轮，在美国和全球都没有被线上化趋势冲垮，反倒是有条不紊的跟上了线上化的大潮。数据来源：公司公告首先是美国的流通体系本身效率较高，电商的渗透率提升并不陡峭，这给了传统企业足够的时间应对。在电商冲击下，沃尔玛并未像传统零售商那样被动，而是以“线上线下融合” 的主动思路，从2016年大力加码电商开始，实现了平稳转型，最终形成了与亚马逊等的差异化优势。具体来说，沃尔玛的线上转型策略极具特色，并非盲目追求线上规模，而是依托线下门店网络，构建了独特的履约体系。其电商履约主要依靠两种模式：“门店即仓”，利用 4300 多家线下门店作为履约节点，提供到店自提和即时配送服务；“沃尔玛履约服务（WFS）”，为第三方卖家提供仓储、分拣、配送等一站式服务，对标亚马逊 FBA。这种模式的优势在于，无需投入巨额资金建设独立的仓储物流体系，能够充分发挥线下门店的网络效应，降低履约成本。同时，沃尔玛结合自己运营线下和山姆的经验，在用户粘性上发力，推出Walmart+会员体系，年费98美元，提供免费当日达、汽油折扣、“扫描&走”结账等权益，截至2025年，Walmart+会员贡献了约17%的销售额，成为电商业务增长的核心支柱；而且75%的Walmart+会员同时也是亚马逊Prime会员，表明其在食品杂货配送领域的独特价值。简单来说，线上的沃尔玛还是那个沃尔玛，电商成为其延伸线下效率模型的工具。资料来源：eMarket引申一点。相比之下，阿里的电商模式虽然在国内取得巨大成功，但本质上是基于中国流通体系缺陷的“颠覆式创新”，通过绕开传统流通环节实现效率提升；然而，这种模式难以复制到海外成熟市场，阿里的速卖通在海外难以形成与亚马逊、沃尔玛抗衡的竞争力。05 回归本源：优秀零售的本质是效率模型的扩张从大面上来看，沃尔玛的成功，是流通体系、战略布局、运营效率和长期主义共同作用的结果，天时地利人和缺一不可，所以中国企业肯定是难以全盘复制，但其转型全渠道零售商的路径中的诸多经验，仍可借鉴。永辉、苏宁、京东、阿里们的困境，本质上是未能抓住零售的核心——效率，而陷入了对渠道、模式或流量的盲目追求，最终在过剩经济中被越来越“挑剔”的消费者抛弃，更遑论转型“全渠道零售商”。简言之，全渠道零售商只是结果而不是目标，真正的内核在沃尔玛的选择始终是，站在消费者这侧。降低成本、提升周转、优化体验，最终建立“效率模型”，然后对模型持续进行迭代和复制。最终体现的就是极强的适应能力，从仓储式会员、到全球化、到线上化，打造了全渠道的效率模型。图：沃尔玛转型全渠道零售成功在于将效率模型复制来源：锦缎绘制无论是线上还是线下，无论是本土还是全球，谁能更好地降低成本、提升效率、满足需求，谁就能在千变万化的竞争环境中始终屹立不倒。转型全渠道零售商模式，在永辉、苏宁、京东、阿里们没做到，但沃尔玛做到了的这一比对中，我们找到了最关键归因：零售行业没有永恒的模式，只有永恒的效率。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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