25%上行空间可期!台积电(TSM.US)绩前小摩唱多：2026年Q1及全年指引料强劲基本面驱动估值重塑

智通财经01-12

智通财经APP获悉，芯片代工巨头台积电(TSM.US)将于本周四公布2025年第四季度业绩。摩根大通近日发布研报称，预计台积电届时将给出强劲的2026年第一季度及全年业绩指引。小摩补充称，相信该公司未来几个月的每股收益预测将获进一步上调，维持对台积电在中国台湾上市的股票“增持”评级，对该股到2026年12月的目标价为2100新台币，这一目标价较该股上周五收盘价有25%的上行空间。小摩提到，台积电在...

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href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1391625.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，芯片代工巨头台积电(TSM.US)将于本周四公布2025年第四季度业绩。摩根大通近日发布研报称，预计台积电届时将给出强劲的2026年第一季度及全年业绩指引。小摩补充称，相信该公司未来几个月的每股收益预测将获进一步上调，维持对台积电在中国台湾上市的股票“增持”评级，对该股到2026年12月的目标价为2100新台币，这一目标价较该股上周五收盘价有25%的上行空间。小摩提到，台积电在...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1391625.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4585","symbol_name":"ETF&股票定投概念","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1391625.html","article_id":"2602590844","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2602590844","pubTimestamp":1768208212,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"stock_zhitongcaijing","name":"智通财经网"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"智通财经APP获悉，芯片代工巨头台积电将于本周四公布2025年第四季度业绩。摩根大通近日发布研报称，预计台积电届时将给出强劲的2026年第一季度及全年业绩指引。小摩提到，台积电在2025年12月的营收为3350亿新台币，同比增长20.4%、环比下降2.5%，使得2025年第四季度营收达1.046万亿新台币，同比增长20%、环比增长6%。这与小摩的预期相符。小摩表示，该行设定的2026年12月目标价2100新台币，基于约20倍的12个月前瞻市盈率，反映了积极的基本面需求驱动因素。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"zhitongcaijing.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU1803068979.SGD":"FTIF - 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Franklin Mutual US Value A Acc SGD"},"translate_title":"25% upside is expected! TSMC (TSM.US) Pre-performance Xiaomo Singing Bullish: 2026 Q1 and full-year guidance is expected to be strong, fundamentals drive valuation reshaping","themeId":"c34a1b4663771e0a6f41b4f3565f1d30","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TSM":1.96,"03145":0.6},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，芯片代工巨头台积电(TSM.US)将于本周四公布2025年第四季度业绩。摩根大通近日发布研报称，预计台积电届时将给出强劲的2026年第一季度及全年业绩指引。小摩补充称，相信该公司未来几个月的每股收益预测将获进一步上调，维持对台积电在中国台湾上市的股票“增持”评级，对该股到2026年12月的目标价为2100新台币，这一目标价较该股上周五收盘价有25%的上行空间。小摩提到，台积电在2025年12月的营收为3350亿新台币，同比增长20.4%、环比下降2.5%，使得2025年第四季度营收达1.046万亿新台币，同比增长20%、环比增长6%。这与小摩的预期相符。该行认为，由于新台币走弱以及产能利用率提高，台积电2025年第四季度的毛利率也有望超过指引(该公司指引区间为59%-61%，小摩预期为62%)。对于2026年第一季度，小摩认为，由于N3制程产能需求强劲和人工智能(AI)业务占比提升，预计台积电将给出第一季度营收环比基本持平的指引，而小摩的预期为增长2%(以美元计算)。小摩补充称，由于更多加急订单、N4/N3及CoWoS涨价、N3产品组合改善(高性能计算占比提升)以及新台币持续疲软，毛利率可能再次走高，预计台积电将给出第一季度毛利率为61%-63%的指引，而小摩的预期为63%。至于2026年全年，小摩认为，台积电将给出全年营收增速位于20%区间中段的指引(小摩预期为以美元计算增长30%)，并将其2024-2029年数据中心AI收入复合年增长率上调至50%区间中段(小摩预期为57%)，2026年资本支出将在460亿美元至500亿美元之间(小摩预期为480亿美元)。小摩表示，该行设定的2026年12月目标价2100新台币，基于约20倍的12个月前瞻市盈率，反映了积极的基本面需求驱动因素。主要下行风险包括：(1)AI资本支出出现任何疲软;(2)英特尔带来的竞争压力加大;(3)内存成本上升导致智能手机需求疲软。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2602590844","isCrawlerRequest":true}

25%上行空间可期!台积电(TSM.US)绩前小摩唱多：2026年Q1及全年指引料强劲 基本面驱动估值重塑

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25%上行空间可期!台积电(TSM.US)绩前小摩唱多：2026年Q1及全年指引料强劲基本面驱动估值重塑