国泰海通：美联储1月降息门槛仍高

环球市场播报01-10

国泰海通研报称，12 月美国就业市场低招聘、低裁员的状态仍在持续。一方面，失业率超预期回落至4.4%，中断了持续回升的势头；但另一方面，新增就业仍呈放缓趋势，后续年度修正或有进一步下调。由于 12 月失业率尚未进一步走高且较多就业指标显示美国就业市场失速风险尚低，在已经连续三次降息的基础上，美联储或仍有暂停降息的空间。根据 CME 数据，非农数据公布后，市场预期 1 月降息的概率仅为 5%。...

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