2026产能归零！全球内存巨头：需求远超供应极限

半导体行业观察01-12

核心要点由于英伟达（Nvidia）、AMD 和谷歌（Google）制造的强力 AI 芯片对内存的需求量极大，今年全球内存供应将入不敷出。预计本季度计算机内存（RAM）的价格将比 2025 年第四季度上涨超过 50%。华尔街一直在询问苹果（Apple）和戴尔（Dell Technologies）等消费电子公司将如何应对内存短缺，以及他们是否会被迫提高产品售价或削减利润空间。由于所有计算设备都需要内存...

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Global memory giants: demand far exceeds supply limits","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"NVD2.UK":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"AMD":1.87,"NVDS":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"USJW.SI":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"MU":1.96,"NVDX":0.6,"NVDA":1.92,"NVDY":0.6},"content_text":"核心要点由于英伟达（Nvidia）、AMD 和谷歌（Google）制造的强力 AI 芯片对内存的需求量极大，今年全球内存供应将入不敷出。预计本季度计算机内存（RAM）的价格将比 2025 年第四季度上涨超过 50%。华尔街一直在询问苹果（Apple）和戴尔（Dell Technologies）等消费电子公司将如何应对内存短缺，以及他们是否会被迫提高产品售价或削减利润空间。由于所有计算设备都需要内存（简称 RAM）来进行短期数据存储，而今年这些关键组件的供应量将无法满足全球需求。这是因为英伟达、AMD 和谷歌等公司在其人工智能芯片中需要消耗大量的 RAM，而这些公司在组件供应的排队序列中处于首位。目前，三大主要内存供应商——美光（Micron）、SK 海力士（SK Hynix）和三星电子（Samsung Electronics）——几乎垄断了整个 RAM 市场，其业务正受益于需求的激增。\" 我们看到内存需求出现了非常剧烈且显著的增长，这远远超出了我们的供应能力。根据我们的评估，这也超出了整个内存行业的供应能力，\" 美光业务首席执行官 Sumit Sadana 本周在拉斯维加斯举行的 CES 消费电子展上告诉 CNBC。美光的股价在过去一年上涨了 247%，该公司报告其最近一个季度的净利润增长了近三倍。三星本周也表示，预计其 12 月季度的营业利润也将增长近三倍。与此同时，SK 海力士在韩国的股价飙升，正考虑在美国上市；该公司在 10 月曾表示，其 2026 年全年的 RAM 产能需求已提前售罄。价格涨势前所未有现在，内存价格正在攀升。总部位于台北、密切关注内存市场的研究机构 TrendForce 本周表示，预计本季度 DRAM 内存的平均价格将比 2025 年第四季度上涨 50% 至 55%。TrendForce 分析师 Tom Hsu 告诉 CNBC，内存价格如此幅度的涨幅是 \" 前所未有 \" 的。三比一的产能权衡Sadana 表示，像英伟达这样的芯片制造商会在负责计算的部件（GPU）周围布置多个快速、专用的组件块，称为高带宽内存（HBM）。当芯片制造商展示新芯片时，HBM 通常肉眼可见。美光为英伟达和 AMD 这两家领先的 GPU 制造商提供内存。英伟达最近投入生产的 Rubin GPU，每颗芯片配备高达 288GB 的下一代 HBM4 内存。HBM 安装在处理器上下方可见的八个区块中。该 GPU 将作为名为 NVL72 的单机架服务器的一部分出售，该系统恰如其分地将 72 颗此类 GPU 组合在一起。相比之下，智能手机通常仅配备 8GB 或 12GB 的低功耗 DDR 内存。然而，AI 芯片所需的 HBM 内存比消费者笔记本电脑和智能手机中使用的 RAM 要求苛刻得多。HBM 专为 AI 芯片所需的高带宽规格而设计，生产工艺复杂，美光需要在一颗芯片上堆叠 12 到 16 层内存，将其变成一个 \" 立方体 \"。当美光生产 1 比特（bit）的 HBM 内存时，就必须放弃为其他设备生产 3 比特的传统内存。Sadana 解释道：\" 由于这种‘三比一’的关系，当我们增加 HBM 供应时，市场上留给非 HBM 部分的内存就会变少。\"TrendForce 分析师 Hsu 表示，内存制造商更倾向于服务器和 HBM 应用，而非其他客户，因为该业务的需求增长潜力更高，且云服务提供商对价格的敏感度较低。去年 12 月，美光表示将停止部分针对消费级 PC 组装者的业务，以便为 AI 芯片和服务器节省供应。科技行业内部的一些人对消费者 RAM 价格上涨之快感到惊讶。Juice Labs 的联合创始人兼技术主管 Dean Beeler 表示，几个月前，他为电脑装满了 256GB 的 RAM（目前消费级主板支持的最大容量），当时花费约 300 美元。\" 谁能想到仅仅几个月后，这些内存竟然涨到了约 3000 美元，\" 他周一在 Facebook 上发帖称。\" 内存墙 \" 挑战Majestic Labs 联合创始人 Sha Rabii 表示，早在 2022 年底 OpenAI 的 ChatGPT 上市之前，AI 研究人员就开始将内存视为瓶颈。Rabii 曾任职于谷歌和 Meta 的芯片部门。Rabii 解释说，早期的 AI 系统是为卷积神经网络等模型设计的，它们对内存的需求低于目前流行的大语言模型（LLM）。虽然 AI 芯片本身的运算速度越来越快，但内存却跟不上。这导致强大的 GPU 经常处于 \" 空转 \" 状态，等待运行模型所需的数据。\" 你的性能受限于内存的容量和速度。如果你只是盲目增加 GPU 的数量，并不能带来收益，\"Rabii 说道。AI 行业将这种现象称为 \" 内存墙 \"（Memory Wall）。美光的 Sadana 说：\" 处理器花费了更多时间在‘转笔头’（无所事事），等待数据传输。\"更多、更快的内存意味着 AI 系统可以运行更大的模型，同时为更多客户提供服务，并增加 \" 上下文窗口 \"，让聊天机器人能够记住之前的对话，从而提升个性化体验。2026 年产能已售罄华尔街一直在询问苹果和戴尔等消费电子公司将如何应对内存短缺。Hsu 指出，如今内存约占笔记本电脑硬件成本的 20%，而 2025 年上半年这一比例仅为 10% 至 18%。苹果首席财务官 Kevan Parekh 在 10 月曾淡化内存价格的影响，但戴尔在 11 月表示，预计受内存短缺影响，所有产品的成本基础都会上升。戴尔首席运营官 Jefferey Clarke 表示，这可能会影响到设备的零售价格。\" 我不认为这不会传导至客户群，\"Clarke 说，\" 我们会尽一切努力减轻这种影响。\"即便是在 HBM 市场最大的客户英伟达，也面临着对其贪婪内存需求的质疑。在 CES 的新闻发布会上，英伟达 CEO 黄仁勋被问及是否担心游戏玩家会因为内存短缺导致的游戏机和显卡涨价而对 AI 技术产生怨恨。黄仁勋表示，英伟达是内存的大客户，与相关公司有长期合作，但归根结底，由于 AI 的需求太高，需要建设更多的内存工厂。Sadana 表示，目前美光对某些客户只能满足其三分之二的中期内存需求。虽然美光正在爱达荷州和纽约州建设大型新工厂，但这些工厂要到 2027 年至 2030 年间才能上线。就目前而言，Sadana 坦言：\" 我们 2026 年的产能已经售罄。\"","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"2","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.43.1","shortVersion":"4.43.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2602567333","isCrawlerRequest":true}