马斯克放言：AGI今年将实现 20年内所有商品服务都将接近免费

快科技01-11

快科技1月11日消息，据媒体报道，在近期的一次访谈中，马斯克再次对人工智能的发展做出大胆预测，认为通用人工智能（AGI）或将在2026年实现，而到2030年，人工智能的能力将超过全人类智能的总和。这一判断相较于多数主流机构预测的“2030年后”明显更为激进。马斯克解释称，当前AI正呈现“超音速海啸”般的指数级加速。他透露，旗下模型Grok?5计划于今年第一季度发布，目前已具备分析照片中电路图错误的...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2602553211?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2026-01-11 15:31","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2602553211","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"马斯克放言：AGI今年将实现 20年内所有商品服务都将接近免费","media":"快科技","content":"<div>\n<p>快科技1月11日消息，据媒体报道，在近期的一次访谈中，马斯克再次对人工智能的发展做出大胆预测，认为通用人工智能（AGI）或将在2026年实现，而到2030年，人工智能的能力将超过全人类智能的总和。这一判断相较于多数主流机构预测的“2030年后”明显更为激进。马斯克解释称，当前AI正呈现“超音速海啸”般的指数级加速。他透露，旗下模型Grok?5计划于今年第一季度发布，目前已具备分析照片中电路图错误的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8ppSJRuYTXx\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"ifeng_tech","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>马斯克放言：AGI今年将实现 20年内所有商品服务都将接近免费</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n马斯克放言：AGI今年将实现 20年内所有商品服务都将接近免费\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-11 15:31 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8ppSJRuYTXx><strong>快科技</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>快科技1月11日消息，据媒体报道，在近期的一次访谈中，马斯克再次对人工智能的发展做出大胆预测，认为通用人工智能（AGI）或将在2026年实现，而到2030年，人工智能的能力将超过全人类智能的总和。这一判断相较于多数主流机构预测的“2030年后”明显更为激进。马斯克解释称，当前AI正呈现“超音速海啸”般的指数级加速。他透露，旗下模型Grok?5计划于今年第一季度发布，目前已具备分析照片中电路图错误的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8ppSJRuYTXx\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4516","symbol_name":"特朗普概念","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8ppSJRuYTXx","article_id":"2602553211","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2602553211","pubTimestamp":1768116664,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"ifeng_tech","name":"凤凰网财经"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"马斯克解释称，当前AI正呈现“超音速海啸”般的指数级加速。马斯克进一步指出，未来20年，底层经济逻辑将发生根本性变化，能源可能取代传统货币成为主要价值衡量标准。随着AI与机器人的普及，商品与服务的生产成本将趋近于零，产能增速有望超过货币供应增速，从而导致价格普遍下降。但马斯克同时警告，这一转变过程并不会一帆风顺。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"ifeng.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"BK4516":"特朗普概念","LU1066053197.SGD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM3\" (SGDHDG) INC","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0323591593.USD":"SCHRODER ISF QEP GLOBAL QUALITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","LU1267930730.SGD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金AS Acc SGD (CPF)","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0496367417.USD":"富兰克林黄金和贵金属A（acc）","LU1366192091.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY PLUS \"AM\" (USD) INC","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z8W00.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"A\" INC","LU0055631609.USD":"贝莱德世界黄金基金A2","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU2403377893.USD":"ALLIANZ SELECT INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (USD) INC","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU0368265764.SGD":"Blackrock World Gold Fund A2 SGD-H","LU2250418816.HKD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0498741114.HKD":"FRANKLIN GOLD & PRECIOUS METALS \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4555":"新能源车","LU2602419157.SGD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"AC\" (SGD) ACC","LU2360107168.USD":"BGF NEXT GENERATION TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU1145028129.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AQ\" (USD) INC","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","LU2236285917.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU1232071149.USD":"AZ FUND 1 GLOBAL GROWTH SELECTOR \"AAZ\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","LU1674673691.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AD\" (USD) INC","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","LU2420271590.USD":"ALLIANZ SELECT INCOME AND GROWTH \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc H2-SGD","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU1674673428.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4588":"碎股","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","LU1066051498.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM2\" (USD) INC","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0708995401.HKD":"FRANKLIN U.S. OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU2456880835.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU2471134952.CNY":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (CNYHDG) INC","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","LU2471134879.HKD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (HKD) INC","BK4598":"佩洛西持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","IE00B19Z8X17.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH  \"AG\" (USD) ACC","LU2471134523.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0345769128.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2471134796.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU2750360641.GBP":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (GBPHDG) INC","LU0210536198.USD":"JPM US GROWTH \"A\" ACC","LU0820562030.AUD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMH2\" (AUDHDG) H2 INC","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","LU0345769631.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","LU2750360997.AUD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (AUDHDG) INC","LU2896262040.SGD":"JPM US GROWTH FUND \"A\" (SGD) ACC","SG9999015945.SGD":"LionGlobal Disruptive Innovation Fund A SGD","UFO":"Procure Space ETF","LU0345770308.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0345770993.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU0672654240.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD-H1","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","SG9999015952.SGD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (SGD) ACC","LU0498741890.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Gold and Precious Metals A (acc) SGD","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU2756315664.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMI\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","LU1629891620.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG2\" (H2-HKD) INC","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","BK4604":"机器人概念","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU1778281490.HKD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU2360106780.USD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","SG9999015986.USD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0077335932.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICAN GROWTH \"A\" INC","LU1066051225.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AC\" (USD) ACC","LU2756315318.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (SGDHDG) INC A","LU2023250330.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4612":"AI芯片","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","BK4017":"黄金","LU1066051811.HKD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM2\" (HKD) INC","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU2462157665.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00BK4W5M84.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (HKD) ACC","SG9999015978.USD":"利安颠覆性创新基金A","LU0964807845.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME & GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","BK4543":"AI","LU2417539215.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMF\" (USD) INC","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","LU2108987350.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV GLOBAL OPPORTUNITY SUSTAINABLE (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","TSYW.SI":"TESLA 3xLongSG261006","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU2213496289.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU2290526834.HKD":"BGF NEXT GENERATION TECHNOLOGY \"A2\" (HKDHDG) ACC"},"translate_title":"Musk announced: AGI will realize this year that all goods and services will be nearly free within 20 years","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1.71,"UFO":0.6,"TSYW.SI":0.6},"content_text":"快科技1月11日消息，据媒体报道，在近期的一次访谈中，马斯克再次对人工智能的发展做出大胆预测，认为通用人工智能（AGI）或将在2026年实现，而到2030年，人工智能的能力将超过全人类智能的总和。这一判断相较于多数主流机构预测的“2030年后”明显更为激进。马斯克解释称，当前AI正呈现“超音速海啸”般的指数级加速。他透露，旗下模型Grok?5计划于今年第一季度发布，目前已具备分析照片中电路图错误的能力。他表示：“当前的AI在算法层面仍有巨大的优化空间，我认为在同等硬件条件下，智力密度还能再提升10到100倍。”马斯克进一步指出，未来20年，底层经济逻辑将发生根本性变化，能源可能取代传统货币成为主要价值衡量标准。随着AI与机器人的普及，商品与服务的生产成本将趋近于零，产能增速有望超过货币供应增速，从而导致价格普遍下降。马斯克表示：“届时所有东西都会变得极其便宜，人人都能轻松获得所需的商品与服务。”但马斯克同时警告，这一转变过程并不会一帆风顺。未来几年经济社会将经历一段“颠簸”期，人类将同时面对激进的技术变革、社会动荡与前所未有的繁荣，而这将是迈向新时代不可避免的过渡阶段。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2602553211","isCrawlerRequest":true}