芯片制程“破2进1” “1.4纳米”2027年或试产

中国经营网01-10

中经记者谭伦北京报道日前，在低调官宣2纳米制程已于2025年第四季度正式量产后，台积电披露下一代1.4纳米工艺研发工作也已顺利展开，其相关工厂建设正加速推进。按照既有节奏，其1.4纳米工艺的风险性试产工作预期将于2027年启动。这一系列的进展，在巩固台积电在晶圆代工领域霸主地位的同时，也宣告全球半导体物理制造极限的产业竞争正式进入全新的1纳米时代。在当前的全球半导体制造版图中，台积电占据绝对主导，...

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260110042723a70895ab&s=b><strong>中国经营网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>中经记者谭伦北京报道日前，在低调官宣2纳米制程已于2025年第四季度正式量产后，台积电披露下一代1.4纳米工艺研发工作也已顺利展开，其相关工厂建设正加速推进。按照既有节奏，其1.4纳米工艺的风险性试产工作预期将于2027年启动。这一系列的进展，在巩固台积电在晶圆代工领域霸主地位的同时，也宣告全球半导体物理制造极限的产业竞争正式进入全新的1纳米时代。在当前的全球半导体制造版图中，台积电占据绝对主导，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260110042723a70895ab&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0572939691.SGD","symbol_name":"Janus Henderson Horizon Asian Dividend Income A2 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1\" and \"1.4 nanometers\" may be trial production in 2027","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"SOXX":0.6,"INTC":0.9,"SMH":0.6,"03145":0.6,"TSM":1.96},"content_text":"中经记者谭伦北京报道日前，在低调官宣2纳米制程已于2025年第四季度正式量产后，台积电披露下一代1.4纳米工艺研发工作也已顺利展开，其相关工厂建设正加速推进。按照既有节奏，其1.4纳米工艺的风险性试产工作预期将于2027年启动。这一系列的进展，在巩固台积电在晶圆代工领域霸主地位的同时，也宣告全球半导体物理制造极限的产业竞争正式进入全新的1纳米时代。在当前的全球半导体制造版图中，台积电占据绝对主导，三星奋力追赶，英特尔则试图通过技术革新实现弯道超车。其中，三星电子希望通过率先应用GAA（全环绕栅极）架构实现“弯道超车”；昔日霸主英特尔则在“五年四个节点”战略的驱动下，试图通过制程之争重回巅峰。目前，台积电尚未披露采用其1.4纳米制程的客户名单。但据媒体报道称，苹果已拿下台积电2纳米初期半数以上的产能，用于生产A20和A20 Pro芯片，因此，市场预计其大概率会再度成为1.4纳米的最大客户。对此，CHIP中国实验室主任罗国昭向《中国经营报》记者表示，半导体先进制程的研发素来紧凑，量产一代之际，下一代的预研便已开始。考虑到当前全球市场对AI算力的巨大需求，2纳米至1.4纳米的过渡间隔或将缩短，其量产进程或也将进一步提前。“破2进1”双线推进作为当前全球半导体制造领域的执牛耳者，台积电一直以其精准的时钟节奏著称。此次2纳米的量产与1.4纳米的推进依然如此。半导体产业分析师季维认为，制程转换背后，也意味着台积电完成了从FinFET（鳍式场效应晶体管）架构向GAA架构的平稳过渡。据台积电官方信息，最新量产的2纳米工艺（N2）采用第一代纳米片晶体管架构，较此前3纳米/3纳米增强版在能耗与性能上有较大改进。其中，相同功耗下性能提升10%—15%，相同性能下功耗降低25%—30%，晶体管密度提升约20%。量产上也形成多厂扩产格局，同时服务苹果、英伟达等客户，展现出对多元需求的覆盖。台积电CEO魏哲家表示，2纳米良率表现良好，2026年将在智能手机与AI/HPC需求推动下加速产能爬坡。得益于稳定的良率控制与头部客户加持，台积电2纳米制程有望快速形成规模效应，进一步拉开与竞争对手的差距。而对于正在推进的1.4纳米制程，已释出的信息显示，其技术路线被视为台积电“渐进式更小节点”的战略。一方面，其继续在N2上滚动优化（N2派生版本），另一方面，则推进研发与产线前置建设，以便在N2成熟后迅速转入下一代节点的试产与放量。在技术路线上，据台媒相关消息，1.4纳米制程或延续GAA架构并引入超级电轨背面供电技术，重点优化AI芯片与高性能计算场景的性能表现。但其初期良率或低于20%，待逐步攀升后，需求才可能迎来激增。目前，台积电目标是在2027年前后启动1.4纳米制程风险试产，2028年前后逐步进入量产。罗国昭认为，按照市场信息推断，台积电短期仍会以2纳米为主，产能聚焦高端手机或AI芯片供给。中期则预计将视1.4纳米良率曲线而定，若能在进入量产的前一年内将良率推高，市场需求便可能出现“弹性爆发”。季维则认为，由于1.4纳米制程的晶体管尺寸进一步微缩，光刻图案的重叠精度要求已达到原子级，这使得每片晶圆的造价成本可能急剧攀升，从而影响其市场定价。但考虑到先进制程客户的营收能力，有望进一步推高台积电未来的收入。三星、英特尔紧随作为台积电目前最直接的两大对手，三星和英特尔长期以来一直与其在先进制程上角力。业内广泛认为，此次台积电“破2进1”，将逼迫三星和英特尔加紧追赶步伐。从2022年开始就实现3纳米GAA工艺量产、与台积电针锋相对的三星，近年来在产品路线上提出明确的时间表：早在对外发布的制程路线图中，三星曾将2纳米与1.4纳米纳入其中长期计划，并规划到2027年前后推进1.4纳米级别的制程投产。公开信息显示，其第二代2纳米工艺（SF2P）采用进阶版MBCFET架构，相较3纳米性能提升12%、功耗降低25%，同时引入后侧电源交付网络技术，优化功率效率。在刚刚举行的2026 CES展上，高通CEO安蒙透露，已就2纳米芯片代工与三星进行积极洽谈，相关设计工作已完成，目标是尽快实现商业量产。在罗国昭看来，三星的优势在于其在设备整合、封装等关键环节的一体化协同，但挑战在于若要与台积电抗衡，仍需要持续改善良率。近年来，三星曾在某些关键节点上暴露出良率低的问题，导致部分客户转单或拖延，因此，良率也成为三星过去两年的改进重心。以2纳米为例，初期三星2纳米良率仅20%—30%，经持续优化，至2025年年底已达40%—50%，目标是在2026年年初提升至70%。尽管仍低于台积电2纳米70%以上的良率水平，但也能满足大规模商业化的基本要求。三星官方信息显示，其正将德州工厂作为2纳米产能核心，通过多元化供应链策略分流台积电客户资源，在先进制程市场抢占更多份额。而老牌巨头英特尔则以“回归制造”与“代工厂扩张”为双重目标。在近年来提出包括18A（等同于1.8纳米级别）、14A（等同于1.4纳米级别）等命名的路线，并通过美国官方投资法案与巨额资本投入，加速本土产能扩张。记者从英特尔方面获悉，目前其18A制程引入RibbonFET（GAA晶体管）与PowerVia（背面供电）双重技术，已于2025年进入量产阶段，预计在2026年扩大商业化应用。罗国昭认为，18A被英特尔视为“夺回制程领导权”的关键。如果18A能证明其效能，那么14A则有望吸引大量原本属于台积电的客户。就在2025年10月，英特尔曾公开展示基于18A工艺的Panther Lake处理器晶圆。目前，其正将亚利桑那州工厂作为18A产能核心，目标是拿到苹果、英伟达等头部客户的订单，以重塑其在晶圆代工市场的地位。市场价值初显伴随1.4纳米制程进入研发周期，全球半导体产业价值也有望迎来新一轮增长，同时推动下游应用领域的技术革新。季维认为，进入2纳米制程后，1.4纳米将不只是代表一个孤立的技术节点，而是连接智能终端、云端AI、边缘计算与汽车电子等多重场景的关键桥梁。若1.4纳米能够在2027—2028年进入稳定放量期，其打通融合多应用场景预计将是其首要价值。从需求端来看，AI芯片、智能驾驶、高端消费电子是1.4纳米工艺的核心应用场景。据国际半导体产业协会及其他机构发布的研报，2025年AI芯片制造商对3纳米及以下制程设备采购量同比激增，占全球先进设备总需求的三成以上，随着大模型训练与推理需求持续释放，1.4纳米制程将成为AI芯片性能突破的关键支撑。智能驾驶领域同样潜力巨大，车规级芯片正逐步向1.4纳米及以下工艺渗透，1.4纳米制程可实现更高的算力密度与更低的功耗，满足自动驾驶感知、决策、控制等多环节的高性能需求。据Gartner、IDC等第三方机构预测，到2030年，全球先进制程（5纳米以下）代工市场规模将突破1200亿美元。其中，1.4纳米及以下节点将占据高端逻辑芯片产值的40%以上。季维指出，由于1.4纳米极高的进入壁垒，已有市场机构预计其初期代工单价将比3纳米高出约50%。这对晶圆厂而言，尽管研发成本高企，但其长尾效应可能带来的利润却非常惊人。对于市场竞争格局，罗国昭认为，若台积电在1.4纳米上能够尽快取得快速良率提升，并与大客户绑定，台积电的领先优势将进一步放大，可能导致高端市场的“单极”格局短期内更稳固。反之，若三星或英特尔通过差异化技术或本地化政策工具成功争取到高价值订单，则全球高端代工市场可能出现更明显的“分区化”竞争，客户会根据产品类别与合规需求选择不同代工厂，而这一点，在1.4纳米时代可能会更明显。此外，对于各方关注的中国市场，先进制程领域的竞争压力也正在倒逼本土企业加速突围。目前以中芯国际为代表的厂商在成熟制程领域持续扩产，同时加大先进技术研发投入。Yole Group预测，2030年中国大陆有望以30%的全球晶圆代工产能份额，成为全球最大代工中心。虽然在先进制程方面仍面临突围挑战，但这种追赶，无疑将令1.4纳米时代的竞争格局充满想象空间。（文章来源：中国经营网）","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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