2026年继续“氪金”，阿里对淘宝闪购依旧很上心

三易生活01-12

近日有传言称，阿里方面在与投资者进行小范围内部沟通时表示，“闪购的首要目标是份额增长，会坚定加大投入以达到市场绝对第一”。对此广大吃瓜群众应该就可以放心了，因为“外卖大战”在2026年还要接着打，大家依然能吃到便宜的外卖。事实上，阿里继续加码的决策应该超出了大多数投资机构以及从业者的预期，毕竟参与这一场外卖大战的阿里、京东、美团，都实实在在付出了总计千亿元人民币的亏损。毕竟真金白银的投入不可能永远...

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sales","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"ALBmain":0.6,"09988":1.96,"BABA":1.96},"content_text":"近日有传言称，阿里方面在与投资者进行小范围内部沟通时表示，“闪购的首要目标是份额增长，会坚定加大投入以达到市场绝对第一”。对此广大吃瓜群众应该就可以放心了，因为“外卖大战”在2026年还要接着打，大家依然能吃到便宜的外卖。事实上，阿里继续加码的决策应该超出了大多数投资机构以及从业者的预期，毕竟参与这一场外卖大战的阿里、京东、美团，都实实在在付出了总计千亿元人民币的亏损。毕竟真金白银的投入不可能永远持续下去，补贴终有停止的时候。例如美团为了守住外卖市场的份额，对餐饮行业加大直接补贴力度，使得核心本地商业板块由盈转亏，直接导致该公司在去年第三季度录得自上市以来最大的经调整净亏损。而作为挑战者的阿里和京东，日子同样也不好过，两家的销售和市场费用同比翻倍增长。外界一致认为贯穿2025年的外卖大战即将鸣金收兵的原因，在于监管机构出手给非理性竞争踩刹车，再叠加外卖大战导致各家财报都极为难看，所以进入去年冬季后，阿里、美团、京东对于外卖的补贴力度也在下降。最重要的原因是“高频带动低频”的叙事近乎破灭，阿里、京东高管所称的“外卖与电商主站消费之间有良好的协同性”，更多是一种理想、而非事实。在这一轮外卖大战中，阿里和京东为何聚焦奶茶、咖啡，看中的便是后者属于典型的日常高频消费品类。虽然奶茶的客单价低，但是用户心智强，且复购率高。所以对阿里和京东而言，用一杯奶茶吸引用户打开主站App，显然就远比从抖音、快手、小红书引流获客更有性价比。刘强东就曾明确表示，“来京东买餐饮外卖的消费者中有40%的人会交叉去买京东的电商产品，我们做外卖亏的钱，比去抖音、腾讯买流量要划算。”但遗憾的是，随着京东在去年11月中旬推出独立的京东外卖App，用高频外卖带动电商低频的叙事几乎就破灭了。因为用户点外卖和网购背后的心理状态完全不同，在点外卖时，用户图的是方便快捷地实现吃饱喝足，属于典型的“即时满足”，但切换到电商场景，用户就必然会比价格、看参数，再加上等待快递物流的时间，就属于是“延迟满足”。试想有多少人会在点了中午的外卖后，会想着给家里添一把椅子，或是去买一台最新款的手机呢？所以从某种意义上来说，只有“三十分钟送万物”成为现实，消费者对于即时零售的心智完全建立，“高频带低频”才能成立，它是即时零售的终点而非起点。当这一轮外卖大战的底层逻辑无法自洽，也就不怪外界认为阿里、京东、美团会收缩战线了。当然，由于担心出现“鹬蚌相争渔翁得利”的局面，这三家也都有意识地降低了调门。此前在被问及这场“外卖大战”是否会有赢家时，美团核心本地商业CEO王莆中就曾表示，“我觉得千万不要变成类似一战，欧陆打残了，美国崛起了。赢家不是在场的人，这是最差的结果。”那么如今在一众互联网厂商里，谁能当这个“渔翁”呢？似乎抖音的概率最大。就在京东、美团、淘宝闪购围绕外卖进行轰轰烈烈的“百亿补贴”时，抖音方面却在悄然推进抖音超市合并至抖音小时达，并宣称这是“提升即时零售业务效能”。没错，抖音其实也盯上了即时零售，只不过他们的策略是“暗度陈仓”。所以问题就来了，为什么阿里如今反而会主动加码呢？其实他们讲的已经不再是“高频带动低频”叙事，即淘宝闪购通过外卖补贴带动淘宝主站流量增长，将外卖流量转化为电商订单，而是入局即时零售对于盒马、天猫超市的拉动极为显著，且淘宝闪购本身的GMV提升、订单结构也在持续改善。据悉，阿里的2025年四季度前瞻纪要显示，去年第四季度淘宝闪购增长势头继续强劲、非餐即时零售进展快速、同时比竞争对手亏损收敛速度更快。目前，淘宝闪购的非茶饮类订单已经占到75%以上，高客单价订单持续增长，就意味着他们的业务结构更加健康。用阿里高层的话来说，就是得益于履约物流效率提升、高客户留存率与客单价上涨的多重驱动，自9月以来淘宝闪购单位经济效益显著改善。即时零售赛道比的就是谁能亏最少的钱做更大的规模，现在淘宝闪购的单位经济效益与友商拉开差距，就坚定了阿里方面继续投入的决心。淘宝闪购对于盒马、天猫超市的拉动，大概率是阿里在2026年年初喊出“坚定加大投入，以达到市场绝对第一”的关键。此前淘宝闪购与尼尔森联合发布的即时零售报告表明，即时零售的很多需求来自“食、游、购、娱、健、养”等一系列生活方式的需求。也就是说，吃只是一种生活方式，是用户心智的起点。外卖带动了用户使用阿里的配送网络与商户资源购买食品、生鲜、医药的需求，淘宝闪购对于盒马、天猫超市的拉动，也证明了淘宝闪购并不需要独自完成整个用户的转化，只要形成一个入口把阿里的整体解决方案展示给用户即可。现在能带动用户在天猫超市购买食杂百货，未来便能让他们在天猫购买数码、家电、鞋服，届时“万物近场消费化”就算成了。简而言之，阿里最初希望淘宝闪购通过补贴吸引的消费者，能直接在淘宝主站买买买的谋划确实可能落空了，但他们意外地发现用户虽然不买数码家电，却会购买生鲜零食，算得上是意外之喜。从一步到位变成徐徐图之，这便是阿里对于即时零售的战略转变。【本文图片来自网络】","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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