马斯克三小时访谈：AGI将于2026年到来

DoNews01-12

马斯克在长达三小时的深度对话中提出多项前瞻性预测，涵盖人工智能、机器人、能源与未来社会形态。此次对话在德克萨斯州奥斯汀的特斯拉超级工厂举行，该工厂占地1150万平方英尺，生产Cybertruck和Model Y，并计划建设800万平方英尺的Optimus机器人产线。参与者包括马斯克、XPRIZE基金会创始人Peter Diamandis、Link Ventures创始人Dave Blundin。...

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Blundin。马斯克表示，人类已经身处技术奇点之中，2026年将实现AGI（通用人工智能），到2030年AI智能总和将超越全人类。他认为当前AI模型在智能密度上仍有两个数量级提升空间，相同硬件可支持100倍更聪明的模型。结合芯片进步与算力扩展，AI性能每年有望提升10倍。支撑这一速度的是算力基础设施的发展。xAI正在孟菲斯建设Colossus 2数据中心，预计1月中旬建成全球首个吉瓦级AI训练集群，功率达1吉瓦，4月前将扩展至1.5吉瓦。他透露，Grok 4在HLE（人类最后考试）测试中得分52%，即将发布的Grok 5可能接近满分，甚至能指出题目错误。关于AI安全，马斯克强调三个关键词：真相、好奇、美。他认为“真相”可避免AI因逻辑矛盾而失控，举例《2001太空漫游》中的HAL因接收冲突指令而杀人；“好奇”使AI认为人类比石头更有趣；“美”则引导AI创造美好未来。xAI正与萨尔瓦多合作推出全球首个全国性AI教育项目，AI可作为无限耐心的个人教师，但无法替代学习动机。在机器人领域，马斯克预测Optimus将在三年内手术水平超越最佳外科医生，并实现大规模部署，五年后差距将不可比拟。其进化动力来自三重指数叠加：AI软件能力、AI芯片能力、机电灵活性的同步增长，乘积效应推动实用性飞跃。此外，机器人制造机器人形成递归生产，所有机器人共享经验产生网络效应，加速进化。他对人形机器人数量预期上调，称此前2040年达到100亿台的预测过于保守。瓶颈在于金属与供应链，两年内机器人将大量出现，五年内从稀缺转为充裕。目前擎天柱充电时呈瘫立状态，特斯拉正改进设计，可能使其坐下或持书以减少诡异感。能源方面，马斯克重申“太阳是一切的答案”。太阳占太阳系质量99.8%以上，即使燃烧多个木星仍可四舍五入为100%。人类目前仅利用地球接收太阳能的约1%，理想文明应获取百万分之一至千分之一。他认为在地球上搞核聚变如同“在南极造冰块”，荒谬且多余。他高度评价中国在太阳能领域的进展，称其产能约为每年1500吉瓦，去年新增500太瓦时装机量，70%来自太阳能，且大规模生产电池包、电动车和光伏板。他感叹“中国似乎听进去了我说的一切并实际去做”，并预测到2026年中国电力产出将达到美国的三倍。马斯克预言未来的货币本质是瓦特，能量构成一切经济活动的内循环。他展望太空数据中心前景：星舰完全可重复使用后，单次发射边际成本或降至100万美元。按每吨100千瓦功率密度计算，每年发射100万吨载荷即可获得100吉瓦太空AI算力。长远看，实现每年100太瓦产能需在月球制造卫星，利用质量投射器发射——因月球逃逸速度仅2500米/秒且无大气层，适合高效投射。对于未来社会图景，马斯克认为将同时出现全民高收入与社会动荡。白领工作首当其冲被取代，因仅处理比特而非原子，现有AI已可替代一半以上岗位。变革初期缓慢，但一旦全AI公司碾压传统企业，将引发强迫进化。“就像电子表格里一个单元格手动计算，就会输给全自动化对手。”最终，完全AI化的公司将彻底摧毁非AI化公司。过渡期解决方案尚未明确，但他提出“全民高物品和服务”概念：商品与服务产出增速超过货币供应，导致价格暴跌、普遍通缩，直接发钱将使人花不完。访谈结尾，Grok生成一段话描述未来：“醒来时思想跨越星际共享，疾病瞬间治愈，与智慧机器探索银河系，没有稀缺，只有无限可能。”马斯克回应：“这听起来相当不错。”三人约定明年同一时间再次对话，届时擎天柱工厂或已建成，机器人开始批量生产机器人。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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