存储芯片持续“高烧”，手机行业迎“大浪淘沙”

21财经01-12

这两年的年末，存储行业从业者李明的状态都颇为紧绷，但其原因又截然不同。自2025年下半年起，大批下游终端客户主动密集联络李明，寻求价格相对稳定的存储芯片，但李明也难以平衡。对比2024年下半年行业需求呈现的两极分化格局，当前的存储芯片市场在AI需求的强劲拉动下，已经全面转向卖方市场行情。“这种行情十多年没见过了。”李明对21世纪经济报道记者表示，存储芯片厂商的策略是尽力保住Tier1手机客户的需求...

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wave\"","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"80992":0.9,"81810":0.6,"03986":0.9,"MIUmain":0.6,"01810":0.9,"HXXD.SI":0.6,"02369":0.9,"ON":1.57},"content_text":"这两年的年末，存储行业从业者李明的状态都颇为紧绷，但其原因又截然不同。自2025年下半年起，大批下游终端客户主动密集联络李明，寻求价格相对稳定的存储芯片，但李明也难以平衡。对比2024年下半年行业需求呈现的两极分化格局，当前的存储芯片市场在AI需求的强劲拉动下，已经全面转向卖方市场行情。“这种行情十多年没见过了。”李明对21世纪经济报道记者表示，存储芯片厂商的策略是尽力保住Tier1手机客户的需求，但1000元价位段上下的手机出货预测正被厂商大幅下调。“存储芯片缺货行情下，我们预判手机市场会出现‘大浪淘沙’。”他补充道。多家第三方调研机构也指出，存储芯片价格持续上涨，将令2026年全球手机市场出货量同比由增转降，市场竞争加剧。（资料图）持续大涨当前，全球存储芯片市场正经历前所未有的涨价浪潮。这对以手机为主力产品的终端厂商而言，无疑构成了一场全方位的挑战。“举个例子，过去15年间，4GB的DRAM内存价格最高大约是20美元，但到2025年末已经是40~50美元。这是十多年都没见过的涨价幅度。”李明对记者分析道，其对手机客户的策略很简单，就是保住Tier1（第一梯队）客户，因为这些客户有更强的产品竞争力和相对稳定的出货量，即便面临手机大盘波动，大客户都可以保持相对稳定的存储芯片需求。这一轮涨价背后，有着复杂的产业逻辑。一方面，AI产业的爆发式增长重构了存储芯片市场的需求结构，三大DRAM存储芯片原厂将产能大量转向服务器相关的HBM（高带宽内存）产品，美系云服务商也愿意为这类产品支付更高价格，为存储芯片原厂带来高毛利率，因此也直接挤压了面向消费电子的终端存储芯片产能。另一方面，存储芯片行业的扩产周期客观上加剧了供应紧张——从购入新设备到实现量产，通常需要18~24个月的周期，即便在2025年下半年启动新产能建设，也需等到2027年才能形成有效供给，短期内供应缺口难以填补。“现在面对存储芯片产品的价格，我们多少有点‘恐高’。”李明坦言。然而，这种涨价行情还没有到终点。调研机构Counterpoint Research指出，存储芯片市场已进入“超级牛市”阶段，当前行情甚至超越了2018年的历史高点。预计2026年一季度存储芯片价格将飙升40%~50%，二季度预计还将再上涨约20%。（图源：Counterpoint Research内存月度价格追踪）群智咨询（Sigmaintell）执行副总经理兼首席分析师陈军向21世纪经济报道等记者分析指出，和以往存储芯片涨价情况不同，本次的涨价周期较长、涨幅也较大。对此，手机终端厂商主要采取两大应对策略：一是下调出货目标，优先保障利润空间；二是通过产品调价或适度 “降规” 来对冲成本压力。具体来看，调价方面，主要是相较同规格体系产品涨价10%~20%；“降规” 方面，则会对部分配置进行优化调整，比如沿用前代主芯片或影像结构件等，以此实现成本与收益的相对平衡，稳固整体盈利水平。变局前夜存储芯片是当下手机新品入市的核心竞争力指标，在这一轮涨价行情的传导作用下，预计将对整个手机行业的竞争格局产生深远影响。“目前，一些手机厂商大幅下调了对2026年1000元左右价位段手机出货的预测。”李明对21世纪经济报道记者分析称，这背后是一道成本平衡难题。结合2025年末的数据来看，64GB的NAND闪存产品价格在15美元左右，4GB的DRAM内存价格大约40多美元，再叠加相关存储套片、屏幕和PCB等主要配置，手机的成本已经接近90~100美元，加上其他研发和渠道投入、配件生产等环节，对1000元左右售价手机来说，已经很难完全覆盖成本。“不如协同上游存储芯片原厂，提供更高配置的存储芯片产品，将更多精力投入到2000元左右甚至以上的手机产品，对于手机厂商来说，才有利润空间可言。”李明对记者指出，2026年或成为低端手机市场的承压之年，尤其是主打千元机赛道的品牌，会面临成本与市场的双重挤压 。“这轮存储行情就像一场大浪淘沙。”陈军也持相近看法。“手机市场竞争已步入‘后半程’，从2026年起的未来数年，行业竞争将进入白热化阶段，各大厂商都会把保障盈利放在优先位置。” 他表示，受此影响，多家厂商纷纷下调2026年手机出货目标，整体预计市场出货量将下滑3%~4%，回落至约11.5亿台，其中国内安卓阵营的出货目标下修幅度相对较大。对手机厂商而言，这一轮行业变局实则是挑战与机遇并存。陈军进一步分析表示，手机市场的竞争已经来到分水岭，2026年就是关键的分界点。各家厂商前期积淀的技术储备、供应链把控能力和品牌资源，都将在2026年集中体现，具备竞争优势的厂商会持续领跑、强者愈强，而底蕴不足的玩家则会加速掉队。根据IDC预计，2026年中国智能手机市场600美元以上市场份额将达到35.9%，同比增长5.4个百分点；400~600美元市场份额10.1%，减少0.8个百分点；200~400美元市场份额34.0%，减少0.3个百分点；200美元以下市场份额将缩减4.3个百分点，达到20.0%。显然，存储芯片涨价引发的连锁反应，正加速智能手机行业从过去的规模扩张转向价值竞争。单纯比拼供应链管控能力和硬件配置的时代，正成为过去。能否在“AI+生态”的赛道上构建体验壁垒，能否在成本压力下精准定位产品与用户，将成为决定手机厂商能否穿越本轮“大浪淘沙”的关键。2026年，这场淘汰赛或许正在吹响起始哨声。（根据受访者要求，文中李明为化名）","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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