周末重点速递丨春季行情如何轮动？券商聚焦商业航天、算力等配置机会

每日经济新闻01-11

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！　　每经记者|杨建每经编辑|肖芮冬　　据《上海证券报》报道，我国2025年12月向ITU（‌国际电信联盟）申请了超20万颗卫星的频轨资源。其中超19万颗卫星来自近期刚刚成立的无线电创新院。上海社会科学院信息研究所副所长丁波涛及头部商业卫星公司的专家解读称，这意味着卫星频轨资源申请已上升至国家战略层面。　　...

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Brokerages focus on allocation opportunities such as commercial aerospace and computing power","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"AI":0.74,"SINA":0.65,"TSYW.SI":0.6},"content_text":"炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 　　每经记者|杨建    每经编辑|肖芮冬    \n　　据《上海证券报》报道，我国2025年12月向ITU（‌国际电信联盟）申请了超20万颗卫星的频轨资源。其中超19万颗卫星来自近期刚刚成立的无线电创新院。上海社会科学院信息研究所副所长丁波涛及头部商业卫星公司的专家解读称，这意味着卫星频轨资源申请已上升至国家战略层面。\n　　华金证券：春季行情如何轮动？春季行情可能进入主升阶段\n　　复盘历史，春季行情主升阶段可能出现补涨，政策和产业趋势向上的行业可能恒强。补涨行业多为估值情绪偏低且后续融资大幅流入的成长行业。\n　　当前来看，今年春季行情主升阶段科技成长和部分周期行业可能持续占优。传媒、计算机、电新、医药等科技成长行业在后续春季行情中可能补涨。首先是传媒、医药、计算机、电新等估值和情绪偏低。其次是今年春季行情主升阶段融资可能继续流入科技成长和部分周期行业。\n　　行业配置上，短期继续聚焦科技成长和周期成长主线。春季行情主升阶段主题指数通常表现偏强。商业航天和脑机接口可能成为春季行情主题投资的主线。一是商业航天受政策和海内外产业趋势共振，发展空间巨大，至2035年太空经济规模有望达到1.8万亿美元。二是脑机接口也受强政策扶持，市场规模可能不断扩张。\n　　短期可继续逢低配置政策和产业趋势向上的军工（商业航天）、电新（核聚变、储能）、传媒（AI应用、游戏）、计算机（AI应用、脑机接口）、机械设备（机器人）、医药（脑机接口、创新药）、电子（半导体、AI硬件）、通信（AI硬件）等行业。\n　　中邮证券：告别“一次性”时代，可回收火箭重塑商业航天\n　　我国已将商业航天提升至“航天强国”的战略高度，并规划万星星座以竞逐太空经济制高点。当前，行业正遵循SpaceX以“猎鹰9”（可重复使用下成本或低于千美元/kg，考虑运力提升，成本有望进一步下降）所验证的“低成本、高频次”技术范式。为迎头赶上，我国必须攻克发射成本高、频次低、运力有限等瓶颈。\n　　我国破局之路已然明确，且正在加速推进：（1）可回收火箭方面，我国“朱雀三号”等已进入关键验证阶段，旨在复制成本革命路径；（2）卫星规模化制造方面，国内年产超500颗的智能生产线已现，海南文昌卫星超级工厂（设计年产1000颗）预计2025年底竣工，将推动单星成本大幅下降；（3）发射频次方面，海南商业发射场等专用基础设施投用，将系统性提升发射保障能力。随着这三大驱动力形成共振，我国发射成本有望进入快速下行通道，推动商业航天突破规模化临界点，从技术验证迈入市场扩张的快速发展新阶段。\n　　随着可回收火箭与批量化制造突破“上天贵、组网慢”的瓶颈，商业航天正步入“建得起”的规模化时代，未来或陆续考虑商业化路径，太空算力作为重要场景得到国内外的普遍关注。全球AI算力需求激增，地面数据中心面临“能耗墙”和“散热墙”的双重制约。在此背景下，太空算力凭借其能源成本极低、散热成本趋零、数据传输成本与延迟双降的独特物理优势，成为商业航天最具潜力的高价值落地场景与必然演进方向之一。当前，以美国谷歌、SpaceX和国内轨道辰光、之江实验室为代表的各方已推出相关计划并开展技术试验，持续催化太空算力发展。\n　　配置方面，可关注商业航天，包括星图测控、中科星图、航天宏图、超图软件等标的；太空算力，包括顺灏股份、普天科技、星图测控、中科星图等标的。\n　　国金证券：机器人行业跨越0-1，坚守核心供应链\n　　特斯拉跨越0-1，国内1-N加速，上肢渐成熟将会加速渗透率提升。\n　　海外方面，特斯拉进展最快，大模型和终端竞争下，关注北美其他巨头供应链投资机会。特斯拉硬件方案已经于2025H2趋于收敛，预计2026Q1大脑等算法趋于收敛，特斯拉是海外最快迈向商业化的人形本体公司。预计一旦特斯拉第三代机器人表现超预期，海外苹果、OpenAI和英伟达等将会加速量产人形机器人。\n　　国内方面，商业化和技术迭代并行，机器人本体上市潮到来。投融资方面，截至2025年，国内机器人本体企业融资金额累计超百亿。量产节奏方面，优必选规划2026年实现数千台的量产规模，智元机器人预计2026年实现数万台的量产规模。随着明年宇树、乐聚等头部本体陆续登陆资本市场，我们认为将掀起新一轮国内机器人产业化浪潮。\n　　配置方面，2026年是人形机器人0-1兑现的重要节点，全球将会迈入机器人“军备竞赛”。特斯拉链的收敛，重点关注拓普集团、三花智控、五洲新春（维权）、蓝思科技等；技术迭代与收敛，重点关注宁波华翔、英诺赛科、日盈电子、泛亚微透等；海外其他供应链的机会，重点关注兆威机电、银轮股份、汉威科技以及电子链标的相关机会；国内本体和应用垂类机会，关注供应链亿嘉和（维权）、翔楼新材、东方精工、均胜电子等；围绕长期确定性，重点关注奥比中光、英诺赛科、宁波华翔。\n　　中邮证券：大厂需求加速，字节AIDC和算力链有望迎来订单爆发\n　　2026年或为国内Capex投入大年。字节跳动已作出初步规划，2026年资本开支拟达到约1600亿元人民币，高于2025年约1500亿元人民币的投入。字节的AI芯片预算约为850亿元人民币，并已经下了2万颗H200的测试单。另外，阿里已明确将AI作为未来优先级方向之一，计划在未来三年内投入超过3800亿元人民币用于技术研发和基础设施，并有望上移该目标。由于字节等国内大厂加速投入，预计将进一步加大AIDC和算力采购规模。\n　　供需格局改善下，大厂IDC有望迎来订单修复、上架提升。在AI驱动的新增需求与政策支持共同作用下，IDC行业有望迎来供需格局改善：一端是大厂Capex回流至AI、国产算力接受度上升与NV高端芯片边际改善有望带动的招投标重启与大单落地；另一端是能评审批谨慎、核心区位资源稀缺使新增无序供给显著放缓。\n　　由此，2026年有望进入“订单修复—集中交付—上架率提升—利润释放”的兑现期，行业利用率与价格信号或同步改善，估值具备由底部向常态区间回归的条件。\n　　配置方面，可关注润建股份、东阳光、大位科技、润泽科技等标的。\n新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：杨赐","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2602404532","isCrawlerRequest":true}