ASIC需求激增，摩根大通上调CoWoS产能，2026 年将达12.7 万片/月（附带2026/27各家加速卡出货情况）

AI产业链研究01-09

当下，CoWos 的产能紧缺是分析师的共识，这也是制约英伟达 H200 扩产的最重要瓶颈。因此，CoWos 能否扩产对整个 AI 供应链都十分重要。小摩 1 月 7 日发布报告称，再度上调 CoWoS 产能预期（系 3 个月内第二次上调），将 2026/2027 年的产能预期分别上调 8% 与 13%，以此反映台积电 2026 年下半年及 2027 年的新增产能落地情况。小摩目前预计，台积电 ...

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reach 127,000 pieces/month in 2026 (with shipments of various accelerator cards in 2026/27)","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TSM":1.88,"JPM":1.91,"NVDA":1.85,"03145":0.6},"content_text":"当下，CoWos 的产能紧缺是分析师的共识，这也是制约英伟达 H200 扩产的最重要瓶颈。因此，CoWos 能否扩产对整个 AI 供应链都十分重要。 小摩 1 月 7 日发布报告称，再度上调 CoWoS 产能预期（系 3 个月内第二次上调），将 2026/2027 年的产能预期分别上调 8% 与 13%，以此反映台积电 2026 年下半年及 2027 年的新增产能落地情况。小摩目前预计，台积电 2026 年底的 CoWoS 产能将达到每月 11.5 万片晶圆当量，外加日月光、安靠等主流封测厂商贡献的每月 1.2 万至 1.5 万片晶圆当量增量，其中额外增长空间主要来自 ASIC 产业链。这些数字跟我们之前分享过的大摩的预测不相上下台积电CoWos产能扩张计划：2026年月产目标12.5万片，客户排产情况更新小摩同时预测，鉴于台积电正积极响应 GPU 及 ASIC 厂商释放的强劲需求信号，2027 年 CoWoS 产能增速将进一步加快。台积电本次产能扩张以 CoWoS-L 工艺为主，其 14 厂与 12 厂的部分 65 纳米前段制程产能，已开始被规划用于大规模集成电路（LSI）及中介层的制造。台积电 CoWoS-S 工艺的供应规模或将基本保持平稳，而在 2026 至 2027 年期间，会将更多 CoWoS-R 工艺的产能外包给日月光等专业封测代工厂（OSAT）。包括英伟达、AMD、Broadcom等重点需求方的情况如下：更详细的CoWos产能的客户需求组成，请看下图：来自TSMC和非TSMC的产能组成情况如下：报告还同时给出了英伟达、AMD、Google、AWS、Meta以及Microsoft的各家公司的芯片出货量预测：","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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