碳酸锂短期存在回调风险

期货日报01-09

近期，受需求增长预期增强、国内大型矿山复产延期等利多消息提振，碳酸锂期货价格加速上行。供应增量有限澳大利亚方面，Greenbushes矿山约52万吨精矿产能在2025年年底如期投产，但产能提升周期较长，短中期供应增量相对有限。在产矿山中，Pilgangoora、Kathleen Valley及Holland矿山供应有望增长，Mt Marion和Wodgina矿山有低品位矿石处理计划，短中期供应或...

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Marion和Wodgina矿山有低品位矿石处理计划，短中期供应或有所下降。非洲方面，Bougouni矿山首批货源即将到港，后续马里矿山稳定发运将带来一定的供应增量。此外，刚果（金）政局动荡、尼日利亚采矿政策变动较大，导致Manono矿山新增产能投放延期、存量矿山供应也可能中断。国内方面，2025年12月紫金矿业旗下道县矿冶一体化项目投产，短中期会带来一定的供应增量。宁德时代枧下窝矿山复产时间尚未确定，仍需进一步跟踪。巴西方面，Grota do Cirilo矿山及Mibra项目复产后将带来一定的供应增量，但数量有限。综合来看，短中期澳大利亚锂精矿产量稳中有增，我国产量有望小幅增长，非洲产量存在不确定性。矿石提锂方面，短中期来看产线复产与检修并存，随着资源供应增加以及冶炼产能扩张，预计矿石提锂产量小幅增长。盐湖提锂方面，短期国内盐湖企业处于季节性减产与新产线产能爬升阶段，国内盐湖提锂产量相对稳定。看向海外，根据智利及阿根廷的发运数据推算，短期南美盐湖提锂出口至我国的数量将小幅下滑。中期来看，阿根廷多个项目仍处于产能爬升阶段，智利SQM氢氧化锂产线正在扩产，后续我国进口量或进一步增长。回收提锂方面，废料供应依然不足。碳酸锂价格高企给湿法产线带来了一定的利润空间，预计短中期回收提锂维持小幅增产趋势。整体来看，短中期碳酸锂供应整体维持增长趋势，但增长空间较为有限，且供应增量兑现存在不确定性。终端需求分化一方面，今年国内“两新”政策（大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新）迎来优化，汽车定额补贴调整为按车价比例补贴，预计国内新能源汽车销量稳中有增。值得注意的是，“两新”政策加大了对绿色转型的支持力度。比如，继续支持报废国四及以下排放标准营运货车更新为低排放货车，优先支持更新为电动货车。事实上，国内新能源重卡渗透率仍有较大提升潜力，在“两新”政策加码的背景下，新能源重卡销量仍有较大增长空间。海外方面，欧盟多个成员国计划扩大新能源汽车补贴力度，海外新能源汽车销量也有望增长。短期来看，一季度为新能源汽车销售淡季，当前新能源汽车产销已出现放缓迹象，预计短期动力电芯产量小幅下滑，中期将延续增长态势。另一方面，国内外储能需求持续向好，国内头部厂商储能电芯订单已排至二季度。但是，当前储能电芯产能存在瓶颈，短期难以大幅增长。中期来看，随着储能电芯产能持续扩张，产量有望进一步增长。后市展望综上所述，碳酸锂供应增量有限，短中期终端需求分化，基本面呈现“短期宽松、中期偏紧”的格局。当前市场已经对中期碳酸锂产业链价格上涨进行计价，在此背景下，期货与现货存在较大价差，下游对高价货源的接受度不高。短期碳酸锂期货价格存在回调风险，预计经过短期调整后，中期价格将延续偏强走势。（作者单位：国元期货）编辑：张瑶","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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