聊一聊AI硬件和软件

傅里叶的猫01-09

最近AI硬件的行情并不是很好，但还好今晚美股的硬件板块表现还可以。高盛最近连续发了几篇关于光模块和PCB的报告，都没能把旭创和胜宏拉起来。市场下跌的原因可能是多方面的，我们只能强行找一些可能的原因。Memory缺的有些夸张在Macquarie前几天的一个报告中，提到未来两年DRAM行业的新增产能仅能支持约15GW的AI数据中心建设。这一硬性约束将迫使全球雄心勃勃的AI扩建计划出现大规模的延期与重新...

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Alpha的测算，2025年全球数据中心装机量是17.4GW，今年能到30.2GW。也就是说今年由于Memory的限制，AIDC的增长不会像预期的那么快，这可能是最近市场对这个报告的解读造成硬件的下跌。AI软件最近AI软件/应用的行情应该是超出了很多人的预期，我们前几天写过一篇关于AI Agent/软件的文章，目前还是比较看好今年的AI应用。下面简单梳理一下AI软件的宏观逻辑。1、政策国家持续加码AI扶持政策，从宏观引导转向精准落地。2025年“人工智能+”行动计划已在医疗、教育、制造、农业等领域启动试点。2026年初，八部门发布“人工智能+制造”专项意见，明确量化目标：推动3-5个通用大模型赋能制造业，打造100个工业高质量数据集，推广500个典型应用场景，培育相关企业。核心逻辑是推动行业数字化、规则化，形成可复制的落地模式。2026年预计将出台更多专项细则，聚焦高质量数据集建设和场景闭环落地，成熟后向全国推广。政策重点支持方向包括制造业，以及医疗、教育等与国计民生相关的领域。2、大厂竞争2026年，国内外科技巨头聚焦AI流量入口争夺与生态构建，竞争策略更灵活密集。大厂核心战略分C端、B端两条线：To C端：聚焦入口构建与效率提升，变现能力最强。例如，阿里千问绑定淘宝、飞猪账号优化购物相关功能；OpenAI推出ChatGPT House强化用户心智。To B端：通过卖token、布局开发者生态带动云收入。例如，阿里云通义智能硬件推出多模态开发软件，赋能眼镜、学习机等硬件交互革新。此外，竞争已延伸至实体场景，ROBOTAXI成为新焦点，Waymo、特斯拉均在加速布局。3、技术突破2026年AI模型技术演进核心是三大关键词：世界模型、原生多模态、自进化智能体（记忆）。其中原生多模态是突破重点，国内处于初步探索阶段，海外由谷歌引领。原生多模态发展分三阶段：语言模型调用独立模态模型（如视觉、语音），比如豆包生成图片。多模态映射为语义向量实现混合输入输出，存在信息减损，阿里千问VL系列是代表。端到端统一混合编码解码，谷歌已实现，是当前最先进范式。未来，AI模型能力仍有巨大提升空间，多模态智力水平从当前30分提升至90分将实现质变；2026年或出现记忆、反思相关的技术创新，谷歌有望引领方向。关于AI 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