涨势凶猛！这些巨头们坐不住了！

米宅01-09

1月7日，据华尔街见闻报道，三星电子总裁兼全球营销主管Wonjin Lee在接受采访时明确表示，半导体供应问题将影响所有人，组件成本正在上涨。尽管公司不希望将负担转嫁给消费者，但Lee坦言，公司已不得不开始考虑重新定价其产品。早前的《韩国经济日报》消息，三星电子与SK海力士计划在2026年第一季度将服务器DRAM价格较2025年第四季度大幅提升60%至70%，并向个人电脑与智能手机客户提出了相近...

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These giants can't sit still!","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDU":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"NVDA":1.91,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"MU":1.88,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"NVDS":0.6},"content_text":"1月7日，据华尔街见闻报道，三星电子总裁兼全球营销主管Wonjin Lee在接受采访时明确表示，半导体供应问题将影响所有人，组件成本正在上涨。尽管公司不希望将负担转嫁给消费者，但Lee坦言，公司已不得不开始考虑重新定价其产品。早前的《韩国经济日报》消息，三星电子与SK海力士计划在2026年第一季度将服务器DRAM价格较2025年第四季度大幅提升60%至70%，并向个人电脑与智能手机客户提出了相近幅度的涨价方案。这就是说，电脑、手机的成本将会在2026年继续延续2025年的上涨势头。其它用到存储芯片的汽车、智能家居比如扫地机、音响等也有可能面临成本上涨，而被迫涨价的挑战。此外，这种涨价有可能外溢到动力电池、传统空调、洗衣机等制造业产品。12026年，全球制造业的经济周期可能会被AI服务器搅得天翻地覆。它就像一只在巴西扇动翅膀的蝴蝶，正在引发全球范围内的龙卷风！先是影响了AI芯片、存储芯片、铜、铝、白银等等，再然后开始外溢到手机、笔记本等制造业终端产品。整个产业洗牌的过程中，经济的通胀开始缓慢抬升。不过，决定这种通胀是否能够持续下去的关键其实并不在于商家是否涨价，而是在于消费者是否愿意买单。这轮涨价，首当其冲的就是AI芯片价格。以英伟达为例，作为AI GPU的领军者，其产品价格在2025年持续上涨、包括接下来的2026年可能继续走高。比如基于Hopper架构的H100芯片，是当前AI服务器的核心产品。根据英伟达官方数据和市场报告，H100单张GPU的售价通常在2.7万美元至4万美元之间。2025年，由于供应链压力，还有需求爆发，H100虽然已经不是最新一代产品，但是价格依然坚挺。更新一代黑石（Blackwell）架构的B100芯片，据英伟达CEO黄仁勋在公开场合表示，它的成本在3万美元至4万美元之间。Blackwell架构的报价比Hopper架构更高，主要是因为该架构2080亿晶体管和台积电4纳米的制造工艺更加复杂。即使是芯片价格更贵了，市场依然供不应求。2025年，Blackwell架构芯片的销售已经远超Hopper架构芯片的销售峰值，创下了新的销售纪录。而英伟达下一代的Rubin架构芯片，价格预估要继续上涨。因为市场普遍的反馈是，Rubin架构成本将高于Blackwell，市场预计单芯片在4万美元以上。价格这么贵的原因也很简单。因为性能更高了，根据英伟达在CES 2026上的最新发布，Rubin平台包括CPU、GPU、DPU等，采用台积电3纳米工艺和HBM4内存，训练AI模型的速度是Blackwell的3.5倍，推理成本降低10倍。那么AI、AI芯片为什么一定要迭代这么快，发展这么快？慢一点发展不行吗？不行。因为这涉及国家与国家之间的战略竞争。正如高盛的一份报告《Powering the AI Era》指出，通过AI基础设施投资，国家可增强经济竞争力。但这也导致供应链紧张，芯片短缺成为全球性问题。换句话说，AI的发展，在未来几年都慢不下来。即使是砸钱，也不会让他慢下来。AI这只小蝴蝶的翅膀会越挥动越有劲儿，风暴即将来临。2原本，AI芯片的涨价只是与AI行业有关，与大多数老百姓的生活似乎没有什么太直接的关系。但是，很多人都没有想到的是，它会那么快地外溢到其他的商品价格。这就与老百姓有很大的关系了。第二个受到影响的就是存储芯片。AI模型训练需要海量数据存储，HBM（高带宽内存）和NAND/DRAM需求暴增。据快科技1月5日消息，2025年存储芯片价格开始上涨苗头，2025年4月起三星、SK海力士、美光这些全球厂商多次上调报价，涨幅15%-30%。行业内人士以为事情到此就结束了。可是万万没有想到，2025年第三、第四季度，三星、SK海力士、美光的报价再次上调，涨幅达30%-50%。这个时候，正好撞上手机厂商开新品发布会。手机厂商坐不住了，成本大幅增加，被迫涨价。红米K90系列标准版起售价较前代涨100-300元，同内存版本较前代最高涨600元。而小米 17 Ultra起售价6999元，较上一代小米 15 Ultra涨500元，同内存版本涨 500-700元。其他手机品牌也不同程度跟进涨价。这一下子，很多消费者就开始感觉到不对劲了，开始感觉到AI这只蝴蝶挥动的翅膀开始影响到老百姓的日常生活了。但是，事情很麻烦！涨价还在继续！市场预计，三星、SK海力士、美光的报价会在2026年继续上涨，差不多今年第二季度的时候，内存价格会在当前基础上再次上涨50%。比如，TrendForce集邦咨询资深研究副总经理吴雅婷就表示，DRAM 2026年供需缺口至少6%，均价上涨58%，涨价周期可能超过上一个周期（8个季度）。市场开始进入疯狂状态，甚至有报道，谷歌的采购高管因在韩国没能成功拿下内存优惠价合同而被开除。与此同时，希捷、西数这些硬盘价格也开始上涨；甚至连相机、电脑这些闪迪存储卡的价格也开始上涨。这个时候，笔记本、电脑品牌机、组装机彻底坐不住了。联想、戴尔、惠普这些电脑巨头开始发布涨价函，官宣涨价，最高能涨20%，最快12月中旬就生效。20%的涨幅并不小，一台5000元的笔记本，涨20%就得多花1000元；一台10000元的笔记本就得多花2000元，这差不多是一个大学生一个季度的生活费了。另外一个受到AI快速发展而出现涨价的领域是大宗商品。国际知名投资咨询机构麦肯锡报告指出，AI扩张将显著影响铜需求。2025年，铜价因AI数据中心和EV需求上涨。铝、镍、白银同样受影响。IB机构报告显示，2025年白银价格翻倍以上，涨145%，收于70美元/盎司以上，远超黄金的75%涨幅。银用于电子导电，AI服务器的增长直接推高需求。福布斯文章《AI Will Supercharge Energy And Metal Prices》强调，AI的建设发展将推动金属商品价格的上涨，铜是下一个，然后是铝和能源。虽然，空调、家电还没有大面积、全方位地提价，但是，如果铜、铝的价格继续上涨，后面的结果很难说。虽然新能源汽车价格内卷得很厉害，但是新能源汽车的各项成本都在上涨：电池价格在上涨，锂电池材料如六氟磷酸锂低点上来涨了100%以上、钴酸锂涨了150%+，电池级碳酸锂涨20%+。车身结构铝的价格在大涨，价格低点上来涨了25+。智能硬件存储芯片价格正如上文所说也在大涨。所以，新能源汽车的成本压力真的很大，有足够的理由去提价！总结一下，涨价是一把双刃剑，如果消费者能够消化这些上涨，就是经济的良性循环，就是温和通胀。但是，如果消费者无法吸收，中游企业将面临上下游两端压力的挤压，遭遇巨大的淘汰、洗牌挑战。希望这轮涨价不是危机，而是催化剂，推动各行各业从“价格战”到“价值战”的转型。大家是怎么认为的呢？","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"2","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2602231991","isCrawlerRequest":true}