“翘尾效应”失灵！去年12月乘用车零售量同比下降14%

每日经济新闻01-12

近日，乘联分会公布的数据显示，2025年12月，国内乘用车市场零售量约226.1万辆，同比下降14%。《每日经济新闻》记者复盘往年数据发现，这是国内乘用车市场近4年（2022年至2025年）来首次在12月出现销量同比下滑。而上一次车市12月“翘尾效应”失灵，发生在2021年12月。根据乘联分会数据，当期，国内乘用车市场零售量约210.5万辆，同比下降7.9%。与2021年特殊市场环境不同，2025...

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260112210700a4bacb42&s=b><strong>每日经济新闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>近日，乘联分会公布的数据显示，2025年12月，国内乘用车市场零售量约226.1万辆，同比下降14%。《每日经济新闻》记者复盘往年数据发现，这是国内乘用车市场近4年（2022年至2025年）来首次在12月出现销量同比下滑。而上一次车市12月“翘尾效应”失灵，发生在2021年12月。根据乘联分会数据，当期，国内乘用车市场零售量约210.5万辆，同比下降7.9%。与2021年特殊市场环境不同，2025...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260112210700a4bacb42&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"SG9999015952.SGD","symbol_name":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (SGD) 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Passenger car retail sales fell 14% year-on-year in December last year","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"81211":0.6,"161028":1.61,"600104":1.67,"GELYY":1.67,"HYDD.SI":0.6,"01211":1.74,"09863":1.67,"002594":1.74,"00175":1.67,"BYDDY":1.74},"content_text":"近日，乘联分会公布的数据显示，2025年12月，国内乘用车市场零售量约226.1万辆，同比下降14%。《每日经济新闻》记者复盘往年数据发现，这是国内乘用车市场近4年（2022年至2025年）来首次在12月出现销量同比下滑。而上一次车市12月“翘尾效应”失灵，发生在2021年12月。根据乘联分会数据，当期，国内乘用车市场零售量约210.5万辆，同比下降7.9%。与2021年特殊市场环境不同，2025年12月乘用车市场销量同比下滑与政策调整有关。乘联分会秘书长崔东树认为：“近期，全国大多数省份置换更新与以旧换新补贴出现不同程度的调整，加剧了消费者观望情绪，也为（去年）12月车市带来了较大的减速蓄势。”新能源车渗透率近60%乘联分会数据显示，2025年12月，新能源车在国内总体乘用车的零售渗透率为59.1%，较2024年同期提升9.6个百分点。复盘2025年新能源乘用车渗透率走势，可以发现其呈现持续增长的态势。2025年1月，新能源车国内零售渗透率为41.5%，8月逐步加速增长，渗透率达到55.2%，年末渗透率逼近60%。具体来看，2025年12月，自主品牌中的新能源车渗透率为80.9%；豪华车中的新能源车渗透率为39.1%；主流合资品牌中的新能源车渗透率为8.2%。对比来看，2025年1月，自主品牌中的新能源车渗透率为60.6%；豪华车中的新能源车渗透率为20%；主流合资品牌中的新能源车渗透率仅有3%。由此来看，自主和豪华品牌新能源车渗透率都提升了约20个百分点，呈现高增长态势。崔东树认为：“新能源车渗透率接近60%，意味着市场进入了‘新能源主导’的新阶段，需及时调整政策，以促进行业实现和谐高质量发展。”不过，从2025年整体来看，新能源乘用车累计零售1280.9万辆，同比增长17.6%，渗透率为53.3%。出口市场方面，新能源车出口量已接近乘用车出口量的一半。乘联分会数据显示，2025年12月，新能源乘用车出口27.3万辆，同比增长119.8%，占乘用车出口量的46.4%，较去年同期增长15.4个百分点。其中，插混车型出口量已占到整个新能源车出口量的40%。细分来看，新能源车出口量居前五位的企业分别是：比亚迪汽车（13.16万辆）、奇瑞汽车（4万辆）、吉利汽车（1.83万辆）、零跑汽车（1.3万辆）和上汽乘用车（1.2万辆）。今年乘用车市场怎么走？尽管2025年12月车市翘尾行情未现，但车市依旧保持较强韧性。乘联分会数据显示，2025年全年，国内乘用车市场累计零售量约2374.4万辆，同比增长3.8%。从过去3年（2023年至2025年）来看，2025年乘用车市场增速最低。作为对比，2024年该增速为5.6%，2023年该增速为5.5%。实际上，自2025年四季度起，国内乘用车市场就开始出现销量同比下滑。对此，崔东树认为：“2025年四季度乘用车零售量走低是很少见的现象。从各方面来看，这是随着以旧换新和报废更新政策阶段性收缩，导致消费者暂时延迟购买，对车市也带来了明显的结构和速度调整。”2025年末，部分消费者购车的观望心态加剧，但这也为2026年年初车市积蓄了一定的动能。“2026年以旧换新政策虽补贴力度形成梯度退坡，但较2025年启动更早，整体看有利于稳定消费预期，有利于1月车市‘开门红’的实现。”崔东树表示。2025年12月30日，商务部、国家发展改革委等8部门办公厅发布关于印发《2026年汽车以旧换新补贴实施细则》，其中明确补贴标准：新能源车价大于16.67万元，燃油车价格超15万元，即可分别获得2万元和1.5万元的全额报废更新补贴；新能源车价超18.75万元，燃油车价大于21.67万元，可分别获得1.5万元和1.3万元的全额汽车置换更新补贴。“随着政策的引导，2026年高端新能源车和燃油车市场会是一大趋势，尤其是售价在20万元以上的插混、增程车型，以及18万元以上的纯电动车，会有较好市场表现。”崔东树认为，2026年，价格竞争仍然是车市竞争的关键点。而对于近两年一路增长的出口市场，崔东树则持谨慎态度。他认为，2026年，纯电动车的出口增速或不及2025年。乘联分会方面预测，2026年，国内乘用车市场预计呈现“前高、中低、后高”的“U型”走势，车市总体销量与2025年持平，出口仍保持10%以上的中高速增长，但国内去库存压力仍较大，因此乘用车厂商批发量预计将实现1%的增长。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2602021510","isCrawlerRequest":true}

“翘尾效应”失灵！ 去年12月乘用车零售量同比下降14%

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“翘尾效应”失灵！去年12月乘用车零售量同比下降14%