21深度｜阿贝尔接棒，“后巴菲特时代”伯克希尔巨轮驶向何方

21世纪经济报道01-06

南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者吴斌六十载传奇徐徐落幕，一甲子辉煌如何续写？“我不需要成为第二个沃伦，我的任务是让这艘巨轮平稳航行。”巴菲特“接班人”格雷格·阿贝尔（Greg Abel）深知自己的定位和使命。随着2026年的钟声响起，执掌伯克希尔-哈撒韦六十载的巴菲特逐渐退居幕后，现年63岁的阿贝尔接替95岁高龄的巴菲特，伯克希尔正式迈进“阿贝尔时代”。从1964年到2024年，伯克希尔的总收益率...

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Abel）深知自己的定位和使命。随着2026年的钟声响起，执掌伯克希尔-哈撒韦六十载的巴菲特逐渐退居幕后，现年63岁的阿贝尔接替95岁高龄的巴菲特，伯克希尔正式迈进“阿贝尔时代”。从1964年到2024年，伯克希尔的总收益率达到惊人的5502284%，而同期标普500指数收益率只有39054%；从1965年到2024年，伯克希尔年化复合收益率高达19.9%，远高于标普500指数的10.4%。尽管巴菲特逐步退居幕后，但60年暴赚5.5万倍的财富神话将永远是价值投资的生动注脚。不过，“‘时间之父’不会放过任何人。迟早他会赢。”巴菲特如是感叹。在2023年查理·芒格驾鹤西去后，已经拄拐的巴菲特也主动选择隐退，一个时代正逐渐落下帷幕。在不少研究巴菲特的学者看来，“接班人”阿贝尔的各种特质都很像巴菲特，和巴菲特一样笑点很低、一样谦逊，做起生意来也一样拥有一种天生的“杀手本能”。对于阿贝尔，巴菲特评价颇高：当伯克希尔偶尔发现自己“深陷”于各种机会之中时，“格雷格已鲜明地展现出他在这种时候采取行动的能力，就像查理当年一样。”但阿贝尔不可能成为第二个巴菲特，“股神”的诞生离不开天时、地利、人和，缺一不可，阿贝尔不太可能复制巴菲特的投资神话，他终究要“走自己的路”。最好的传承，从来不是成为第二个谁，而是为同一个使命，写下属于自己的篇章。六十载弹指一挥间。1965年，巴菲特收购了伯克希尔。自那时起，他就一直担任董事长和首席执行官。在随后的漫长岁月里，伯克希尔从纺织厂转型为一家多元化的投资控股公司。年近期颐，巴菲特已然老矣，“不知何故，我真的到90岁左右才开始觉得自己变老了。”巴菲特感叹，“当你开始意识到，自己正在变老时——这一过程就不可逆转了。”2025年2月，巴菲特在年度股东信中分享自己和妹妹伯蒂交流手杖使用的心得，全球投资者意外发现：“股神”拄拐了。巴菲特开始偶尔失去身体平衡，有时候甚至记不起别人的名字。他还提到，会突然间觉得报纸看起来就像印的墨水太少了一样——视力变得不那么清晰了。因此，去年5月，在伯克希尔股价创下新高、市值接近1.2万亿美元的“高光时刻”，巴菲特在股东大会上宣布“退休”。巴菲特继续担任伯克希尔董事长职务，但卸任首席执行官为其逐步退出公司日常管理铺平道路。巴菲特对阿贝尔赞不绝口，称阿贝尔更亲力亲为的管理风格对伯克希尔旗下60多家子公司来说更有效。“格雷格的管理方式比我的有效得多，我可不想像他那么拼命工作。”在明确的管理分工下，阿贝尔的职责聚焦于BNSF铁路、制造业及能源业务的监督；副董事长Ajit Jain继续日常监管保险业务；原由阿贝尔负责的消费品、服务与零售业务交由豪华飞机部门NetJets的首席执行官Adam Johnson直接管理。不过，伯克希尔目前尚未正式公布其价值2832亿美元（截至2025年9月30日）的股票投资组合将由谁主导管理，这一庞大组合包含苹果、美国运通等核心持仓。伯克希尔的下一次年会将于2026年5月2日在奥马哈举行。今年的股东大会巴菲特将坐在台下，不再像往年那样上台回答问题——这是他最近宣布退休后的一大重要变动。尽管巴菲特坦承年龄让自己在某些方面变得迟钝，但他认为，自己仍然拥有最宝贵、也是最稀有的天赋。“我不会为20年、40年、60年前出现过的事情感到困扰，我现在依然能做出决策。如果市场出现恐慌，我还是能派上用场的——在股价暴跌、别人恐慌的时候，我不会被吓到。”巴菲特称，这一点并不受年龄限制，阿贝尔在这方面也很像他，阿贝尔也是一位成功的投资者，“他会知道应该把钱投资到哪里。”巴菲特向投资者保证，在离开CEO岗位后，自己将继续担任公司董事长，且多数时间仍会到岗办公，为阿贝尔的过渡与决策提供支持，而不是坐在家里看肥皂剧。巴菲特强调，在某些情况下，他仍会“留在公司，并且可能会派上用场”。一个关乎传承的巧合，在1962年悄然发生：当巴菲特为未来的商业与投资帝国奠定基石时，他的继任者悄然诞生。1962年，巴菲特开始以每股7.6美元的价格买入陷入困境的新英格兰纺织厂。在传奇的起点，阿贝尔同年出生在加拿大草原城市埃德蒙顿，这座城市被誉为加拿大“石油之都”。他的母亲是一位家庭主妇，曾兼任法律助理，父亲则从事灭火器销售工作。“小城青年”阿贝尔的首次商业冒险是骑着单车挨家挨户投递广告传单，每份报酬0.25美分。他还收集被丢弃的汽水瓶，不断寻找更优的回家路线，以便途中发现更多弃瓶。每次放学，他能捡到多达5个瓶子，到周末时，他的房间里就能堆满20个瓶子，总价值约1美元。在熟识者眼中，阿贝尔擅长建立深厚人际关系。富国银行前高管马克·奥曼（Mark Oman）表示，他与人初识便能成为朋友，虽非外向张扬型，但他百分百友善。“没人比格雷格更会营造聚会氛围——不是靠夸张手段，而是通过个性化关怀让每位宾客尽兴。\"阿贝尔与巴菲特的交集始于四分之一世纪前伯克希尔进军能源领域之时。自2008年出任伯克希尔哈撒韦能源公司（BHE）CEO以来，阿贝尔逐步构建起覆盖公用事业、输油管道、天然气工厂、风能与太阳能电站以及庞大输电网络的能源帝国，该板块现已成为巴菲特商业王国的重要支柱。阿贝尔最主要的成就大多是在公用事业领域取得的。在巴菲特眼中，阿贝尔就是一个超级明星。他不声不响、小心翼翼，让人信服地打造了全美最大的能源供应商之一。1997年CalEnergy营收23亿美元、利润1.39亿美元；到了2022年，伯克希尔哈撒韦能源公司营收飙升至264亿美元，利润达39亿美元。伯克希尔的制造、服务与零售板块规模达1650亿美元，涵盖NetJets、本杰明·摩尔（Benjamin Moore）、Clayton Homes等数十家子公司（不包括铁路与能源业务），在这一板块，阿贝尔也带来了显著改善，将运营利润率从2017年的4.9%提升至2023年的7.6%。自2018年以来，阿贝尔担任伯克希尔非保险业务副董事长，负责铁路、公用事业、能源、制造业及零售等业务。阿贝尔近年来扮演的一个关键角色是，他参与了伯克希尔对日本五大商社的投资。阿贝尔表示，对日本五大商社的投资不仅是一笔好的交易，双方也建立了紧密的长期合作关系，他预计伯克希尔将持有这些贸易公司50年甚至“永久”。外界在很长时间里都在猜测，阿贝尔可能就是巴菲特“接班人”。2021年5月1日，彼时97岁的芒格在回答有关公司未来文化的问题时，意外脱口而出：“格雷格会延续这种文化。”阿贝尔成为巴菲特接班人的消息被确认。伯克希尔的股权活动呈现出双面灵活性。一方面，伯克希尔控制着许多企业，持有至少80%的被投资方股份。通常情况下会拥有100%股权。这189家子公司与可交易的普通股有相似之处，但远非完全相同。这个集合价值数千亿美元，包括一些罕见的“宝石”、许多还不错的但远非令人惊叹的企业以及一些表现不佳的令人失望的企业。另一方面，伯克希尔拥有十几家非常大且利润丰厚的企业的小部分股份，这些企业家喻户晓，如苹果、美国运通、可口可乐和穆迪。在2024年底，伯克希尔的部分所有权持股价值2720亿美元。可以理解的是，真正杰出的企业很少会整体出售，但这些公司的一部分股权可以在周一到周五在华尔街购买，在极个别情况下会以折扣价出售。在“阿贝尔时代”，伯克希尔未来可能继续走稳健、保守的路线，而不会突然变得激进或大幅改变投资风格。投资者密切关注阿贝尔会对伯克希尔的发展轨迹或者千亿美元级别的股票投资组合做出哪些改变，但很难出现超级大转变。阿贝尔已经证明自己是一位比巴菲特更“亲自上手”以及亲力亲为的顶尖管理者，但他仍遵循伯克希尔对被收购公司给予自主权的模式。阿贝尔会向公司领导层提出尖锐问题，并要求他们对业绩负责。与\"放手管理\"的巴菲特不同，阿贝尔事必躬亲，对低效表现绝不姑息。美国运动品牌布鲁克斯前首席执行官Jim Weber透露，阿贝尔每年都会数次造访公司位于西雅图的总部，与管理层讨论公司战略。“如果你的表现不佳，他会直接告诉你，并给你几个月时间调整。”CFRA Research资深分析师Cathy Seifert预计，阿贝尔时代的管理方式很可能比巴菲特时代更加灵活，投资界很可能会对阿贝尔的管理风格表示赞赏，因为这在一定程度上会把事情“扣紧、收拢”。如果这有助于业绩表现，那也确实无可指摘。六十载巴菲特时代逐渐落幕，“巴菲特溢价”也正在消退，伯克希尔这艘巨轮正驶向一片辽阔而礁石密布的海域。虽然有巴菲特的强力背书，但由于多年来投资者因巴菲特负责管理资金，才愿意为伯克希尔的股票支付溢价，因此当巴菲特即将离开时，投资者对伯克希尔的信心受挫是不可避免的。去年伯克希尔罕见遭遇“卖出”评级。2025年10月，Keefe, Bruyette & Woods将伯克希尔A类股的评级从“与大盘持平”下调至“跑输大盘”，称公司“诸多因素正朝着不利方向发展”。在巴菲特卸任消息宣布后，伯克希尔的股价一度下跌逾10%，同期标普500指数涨幅超过10%。2025年，伯克希尔A类股价上涨10.85%，而标普500指数涨幅则为16.39%。华尔街金融巨头Edward Jones资深分析师James Shanahan表示，在巴菲特宣布卸任首席执行官后出现的一段显著跑输大盘之后，近期将伯克希尔的评级从持有上调至买入，这种抛售带来逢低买入机遇。如果阿贝尔依托庞大现金流增加投资活动或实施股票回购，可能成为伯克希尔股价的强大催化剂。也有不少人持悲观看法。KBW分析师Meyer Shields警告称，继任问题可能进一步拖累伯克希尔股价，“因为我们认为伯克希尔信息披露不足”，一旦投资者无法再依赖巴菲特在伯克希尔的存在，很可能会令他们望而却步。近年来，伯克希尔似乎难以保持强劲的业绩增长速度，其规模已变得极其庞大，同时也难以找到新的且足够重要的收购标的。即便是2025年秋天以97亿美元收购西方石油公司旗下OxyChem，可能也不足以对伯克希尔的利润产生明显积极影响。部分曾经蓬勃发展的子公司目前也表现疲软。巴菲特本人承认，伯克希尔旗下部分企业长期表现不佳，并存在一些“拖后腿”的业务板块。截至2025年三季度末，伯克希尔现金储备膨胀至创纪录的3817亿美元，超过去年一季度创下的3477亿美元前高。面对长期担任巴菲特副手的阿贝尔，伯克希尔的股东仍在观望他能否在投资业务上创造出投资神话。毫无疑问，在投资方面，股东们并不会给予阿贝尔类似于他们对巴菲特那样的无条件信任。需要注意的是，尽管伯克希尔拥有数千亿美元现金储备，却坚持不支付股息，这在投资界引起了广泛的关注和讨论。在巴菲特看来，将公司的利润用于再投资，而不是以股息的形式返还给股东，能够创造更大的长期价值。1965—2024年，伯克希尔股东只收到过一笔现金股息。1967年1月3日，伯克希尔支付了101755美元或每股A类股10美分。巴菲特已经不记得为什么他向伯克希尔的董事会提出了派息，但他强调这似乎像一场“噩梦”。“这是一种非常微小的方式，伯克希尔的股东们通过放弃股息，选择再投资而不是消费，参与了一个投资奇迹。”巴菲特感叹，最初这种再投资微不足道，几乎可以忽略不计，但随着时间的推移，它呈指数级增长，反映了持续的储蓄文化与长期复利效应的结合。坚守不支付股息的策略最终助推了惊人的投资回报。但如果阿贝尔无法为伯克希尔账上3817亿美元现金找到富有成效的用途，投资者们可能会推动公司开始大规模派发股息，或采用传统的股票回购计划以提升他们持有的股份价值。巴菲特认为，伯克希尔只应在股价便宜时才选择回购股票，而他从2024年初以来就没有这么做过。由于巴菲特掌控了近30%的投票权，阿贝尔在一段时间内将能免受这类压力带来的重大负面影响。“后巴菲特时代”伯克希尔这艘巨轮扬帆启航，阿贝尔能否创造新的传奇？时间会给出答案。可以确认的是，这位价值投资新舵主会铭记：慢一点，才能走得更远。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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