AI热潮力压地缘风险，道指、标普500指数创新高｜美股一线

21财经网01-07

（资料图）南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者吴斌报道美国东部时间1月6日，美股三大指数全线收涨，道指、标普500指数均创历史新高。截至收盘，道指涨0.99%，报49462.08点；纳指涨0.65%，报23547.17点；标普500指数涨0.62%，报6944.82点。随着美股第四季度财报季临近，华尔街整体估值仍处于相对高位。目前标普500指数的预期市盈率约为22倍，比去年11月的23倍略降，但仍高于...

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报道美国东部时间1月6日，美股三大指数全线收涨，道指、标普500指数均创历史新高。截至收盘，道指涨0.99%，报49462.08点；纳指涨0.65%，报23547.17点；标普500指数涨0.62%，报6944.82点。随着美股第四季度财报季临近，华尔街整体估值仍处于相对高位。目前标普500指数的预期市盈率约为22倍，比去年11月的23倍略降，但仍高于过去五年的平均水平19倍。1月5日，投资者一度押注委内瑞拉事件或为美国企业获取委内瑞拉石油资源铺平道路，能源股一度大涨。但冷静一天后，能源股在前一交易日大涨后回落，埃克森美孚下跌3.4%，雪佛龙下跌4.5%，能源巨头重返委内瑞拉仍有巨大不确定性。CES搅动资本市场在2026年国际消费电子展（CES 2026）上，“黄衣教主”的一举一动也在影响资本市场的走势。英伟达CEO黄仁勋表示，搭载新型Rubin芯片的服务器机架将可采用无需水冷机的温度进行冷却，其所需气流与搭载Blackwell芯片的机架基本相当。数据中心冷却概念股走低，江森自控跌逾6%，特灵科技跌2.5%。与此形成鲜明对比的是，AI热潮下存储芯片严重短缺，涨价潮推动了半导体板块的强势行情，美光科技领跑。黄仁勋强调内存与存储需求的重要性，相关概念股持续走高，闪迪飙升27%，美光科技大涨10%。Baird投资策略师Ross Mayfield表示，科技股在去年年底曾短暂停下脚步，但没有人会质疑，人工智能是一项具有颠覆性的技术。“我们正在看到芯片股领涨，这在预期之中，同时周期性板块轮动仍在持续。”接下来投资者将密切关注美股财报季。Argent Capital投资组合经理Jed Ellerbroek表示，大型科技公司即将迎来非常强劲的财报季，资本支出预测很可能会再次被上调。美股走势分歧重重在经历了连续三年的大涨后，华尔街对2026年美股表现整体偏乐观。摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师Mike Wilson预测，受业绩、监管放松、美联储政策、人工智能应用、油价和美元或继续下跌、估值抬升等多重催化剂驱动，美国股市将继续上涨。他对于股票的投资首选建议包括金融股、医疗保健股、非必需消费品股、工业股以及小盘股。近期，关于美股估值过高和股价涨势难以持续的警告屡屡被强劲的企业盈利所化解。市场预计2026年的盈利增速将接近14%，高于2025年的12%，这可能为股市表现提供支撑。不过，仍有分析师对未来忧心忡忡。美国银行证券策略师Victoria Roloff和Savita Subramanian在研究报告中表示，在指数中占据过高权重的大型科技公司资本密集度不断上升、估值倍数偏高，以及劳动力市场出现裂痕，这些因素共同构成了采取“更为谨慎立场”的理由。全球最大对冲基金桥水基金的创始人达里奥警告称，推动华尔街科技股上涨的人工智能热潮现在正处于“泡沫早期阶段”。新任命的美联储主席和联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）将倾向于压低名义和实际利率，这或将支撑资产价格，并进一步吹大泡沫。2025年，标普500指数上涨16%，人工智能领域的赢家英伟达、Alphabet、博通、微软贡献最大。但与此同时，人们也越来越担心大型科技公司在AI领域的巨额支出能否产生相应回报。未来一年，微软、Alphabet、亚马逊和Meta的资本支出预计将增长34%，总计达到约4400亿美元。OpenAI承诺将在AI基础设施上投入超过1万亿美元。此外，AI领域的扩张过于依赖“循环投资”，投资和支出在OpenAI与几家上市科技巨头之间来回流动。展望未来，Sevens Report创始人Tom Essaye警告称，像美股刚刚结束的这种三年连涨行情往往发生在市场周期后期，并常常通向周期性熊市。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"2","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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