AI与机器人梦想宏大，但电动汽车现实骨感：特斯拉在华市场连续两年萎缩

智通财经01-05

1月5日，尽管12月出货规模稍微有所回升，但是全球电动汽车领军者特斯拉公司的中国工厂出货量在2025年全年度相比于2024年仍出现显著下滑。由全球首富埃隆·马斯克领导的这家全球大型车企在全球销量显著放缓之际举步维艰，并失去了全球电动汽车市占率第一以及在中国的电动汽车市场份额第一的双重宝座。随着比亚迪、“蔚小理”、小米等中国最知名的电动汽车厂商们持续推出具备新颖功能的新款车型，中国电动汽车市场竞争...

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tom33
01-06
tom33
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years","themeId":"c286c75ec5e255f332a1148d637d884b","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5362fcbf04a4db78e5ce094761c3d2e0","symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1.98},"content_text":"1月5日，尽管12月出货规模稍微有所回升，但是全球电动汽车领军者特斯拉公司的中国工厂出货量在2025年全年度相比于2024年仍出现显著下滑。由全球首富埃隆·马斯克领导的这家全球大型车企在全球销量显著放缓之际举步维艰，并失去了全球电动汽车市占率第一以及在中国的电动汽车市场份额第一的双重宝座。随着比亚迪、“蔚小理”、小米等中国最知名的电动汽车厂商们持续推出具备新颖功能的新款车型，中国电动汽车市场竞争日趋激烈，特斯拉失去了中国市场以及全球最大规模电动汽车制造商的双重头衔，被比亚迪公司超越。根据中国乘用车协会的初步统计数据，特斯拉去年从其上海超级汽车工厂出货851,732辆电动汽车，较上年同期下降约7%。其中12月单月为97,171辆，而这仅是2025年第四个出现同比增长步伐的月份。值得注意的是，该份最新统计数据未拆分中国出货中出口的占比规模，不过其中大部分车辆在中国市场进行本地销售。上图显示，特斯拉在中国市场全年度出货量在2025年再次出现下滑。按2025年全年电动汽车销售/出货口径，特斯拉已把“全球电动汽车(EV/纯电BEV)第一”的榜首位置让给比亚迪，多家媒体与研究机构均据年度交付/销量数据作出这一最新的结论。中国市场的连续两年显著下滑凸显出特斯拉在其最大需求市场之一可能长期面临的艰难挑战。虽然市场对于特斯拉估值与基本面前景的展望已经全面转向基于特斯拉独家AI超算体系打造的FSD全自动驾驶、Robotaxi(完全无人自动驾驶出租车)，以及名为“擎天柱”的特斯拉AI人形机器人，但是特斯拉电动车销量与汽车业务基本面并未被削弱到无足轻重，它仍是当前现金流与资产负债表的支柱，也是FSD数据闭环与车队规模的基础(Robotaxi最终也要落到可规模化的车辆产能与运营)。更现实的是，在“特斯拉增长叙事换挡”的同时，市场仍会用交付、汽车毛利、价格竞争与区域份额去校准短期盈利与估值安全边际——所以销量对基本面影响更像是从“唯一主线”变成“底盘与约束条件”：销量/毛利决定“现金与投资者资金容错率”，而FSD/Robotaxi/Optimus决定“估值的上行想象力与特斯拉基本面前景天花板”。近几周多家媒体与卖方分析师们都直言，特斯拉在交付下滑背景下仍能维持高估值，主要靠投资者们以及“马斯克信徒们”押注其在自动驾驶与机器人上的潜在“平台级”增量利润池;甚至连特斯拉自身对交付的更保守展望，也被一些马斯克信徒解读为“短期汽车业务走弱无碍马斯克仍在大举押注自动驾驶/机器人创收大规模兑现”。然而，这并不意味着汽车业务不重要，而是意味着股价的边际定价因子更偏向“什么时候、以何种监管路径、在多大规模上实现可商业化的无人驾驶与Robotaxi”。此前这家总部位于美国奥斯汀的大型车企在第三季度交付量出现跳升，主要因为消费者在一项至关重要的美国电动汽车补贴到期前美国消费者们积极抢购电动车;但随着包括美国在内的全球各国缩减电动汽车政策支持，特斯拉所面临的需求疲软挑战仍在持续。此外，尽管马斯克淡出其在西方国家政治领域的高调逆反角色，但是消费者需求疲软仍然是拖累特斯拉全球销量的逆风因素。在艰难的一年里(即2025年)，特斯拉将“全球最大规模电动车制造商”的头衔让给了总部位于中国的比亚迪。毋庸置疑的是，特斯拉在中国市场所面临的电动汽车竞争正在不断加剧，比如小米等新锐电动汽车制造商们推出面向未来科技、强调驾驶功能高度智能化的新电动汽车车型，正不断赢得中国消费者青睐。小米推出的电动汽车产品直接瞄准特斯拉Model 3和Model Y。按中国汽车技术研究中心与Bloomberg Intelligence的统计数据，小米所推出的YU7运动型多用途车(即YU7 SUV)在中国某些月份甚至已逼近Model Y的销量数据;比如，11月小米YU7售出33,591辆，而Model Y则为33,935辆。中国乘用车协会的的初步统计数据还显示，2025年12月全国新能源汽车批发销量——包括插电式混合动力汽车与纯电动汽车，同比小幅增长4%至157万辆。按Bloomberg Intelligence基于协会数据的计算，中国全年新能源汽车销量大幅增长约25%。乘用车协会将于本月稍晚发布最终的2025年全年度销量数据。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":518872292823072,"gmtCreate":1767648068149,"gmtModify":1767648080831,"author":{"id":"3575336049872142","authorId":"3575336049872142","name":"tom33","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa9a2ae69ad94cc4f6f7359e1f604635","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575336049872142","authorIdStr":"3575336049872142"},"htmlText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","listText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","text":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dee8dd564fa3fc03f5eca1244b5b0b62"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/518872292823072","repostId":2601885499,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2601885499","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1767613942,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2601885499?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-05 19:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"AI与机器人梦想宏大，但电动汽车现实骨感：特斯拉在华市场连续两年萎缩","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2601885499","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，尽管12月出货规模稍微有所回升，但是全球电动汽车领军者特斯拉公司的中国工厂出货量在2025年全年度相比于2024年仍出现显著下滑。上图显示，特斯拉在中国市场全年度出货量在2025年再次出现下滑。中国市场的连续两年显著下滑凸显出特斯拉在其最大需求市场之一可能长期面临的艰难挑战。小米推出的电动汽车产品直接瞄准特斯拉Model 3和Model Y。乘用车协会将于本月稍晚发布最终的2025年全年度销量数据。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>1月5日，尽管12月出货规模稍微有所回升，但是全球电动汽车领军者<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>公司的中国工厂出货量在2025年全年度相比于2024年仍出现显著下滑。由全球首富埃隆·马斯克领导的这家全球大型车企在全球销量显著放缓之际举步维艰，并失去了全球电动汽车市占率第一以及在中国的电动汽车市场份额第一的双重宝座。</p><p>随着<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYDDY\">比亚迪</a>、“蔚小理”、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XIACY\">小米</a>等中国最知名的电动汽车厂商们持续推出具备新颖功能的新款车型，中国电动汽车市场竞争日趋激烈，特斯拉失去了中国市场以及全球最大规模电动汽车制造商的双重头衔，被<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>公司超越。</p><p>根据中国乘用车协会的初步统计数据，特斯拉去年从其上海超级汽车工厂出货851,732辆电动汽车，较上年同期下降约7%。其中12月单月为97,171辆，而这仅是2025年第四个出现同比增长步伐的月份。</p><p>值得注意的是，该份最新统计数据未拆分中国出货中出口的占比规模，不过其中大部分车辆在中国市场进行本地销售。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41853b03093ac97204be09dab2bcd130\" tg-width=\"805\" tg-height=\"447\"/></p><p>上图显示，特斯拉在中国市场全年度出货量在2025年再次出现下滑。</p><p>按2025年全年电动汽车销售/出货口径，特斯拉已把“全球电动汽车(EV/纯电BEV)第一”的榜首位置让给<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01211\">比亚迪</a>，多家媒体与研究机构均据年度交付/销量数据作出这一最新的结论。</p><p>中国市场的连续两年显著下滑凸显出特斯拉在其最大需求市场之一可能长期面临的艰难挑战。</p><p>虽然市场对于特斯拉估值与基本面前景的展望已经全面转向基于特斯拉独家AI超算体系打造的FSD全自动驾驶、Robotaxi(完全无人自动驾驶出租车)，以及名为“擎天柱”的特斯拉AI人形机器人，但是特斯拉电动车销量与汽车业务基本面并未被削弱到无足轻重，它仍是当前现金流与资产负债表的支柱，也是FSD数据闭环与车队规模的基础(Robotaxi最终也要落到可规模化的车辆产能与运营)。</p><p>更现实的是，在“特斯拉增长叙事换挡”的同时，市场仍会用交付、汽车毛利、价格竞争与区域份额去校准短期盈利与估值安全边际——所以销量对基本面影响更像是从“唯一主线”变成“底盘与约束条件”：销量/毛利决定“现金与投资者资金容错率”，而FSD/Robotaxi/Optimus决定“估值的上行想象力与特斯拉基本面前景天花板”。</p><p>近几周多家媒体与卖方分析师们都直言，特斯拉在交付下滑背景下仍能维持高估值，主要靠投资者们以及“马斯克信徒们”押注其在自动驾驶与机器人上的潜在“平台级”增量利润池;甚至连特斯拉自身对交付的更保守展望，也被一些马斯克信徒解读为“短期汽车业务走弱无碍马斯克仍在大举押注自动驾驶/机器人创收大规模兑现”。</p><p>然而，这并不意味着汽车业务不重要，而是意味着股价的边际定价因子更偏向“什么时候、以何种监管路径、在多大规模上实现可商业化的无人驾驶与Robotaxi”。</p><p>此前这家总部位于美国奥斯汀的大型车企在第三季度交付量出现跳升，主要因为消费者在一项至关重要的美国电动汽车补贴到期前美国消费者们积极抢购电动车;但随着包括美国在内的全球各国缩减电动汽车政策支持，特斯拉所面临的需求疲软挑战仍在持续。此外，尽管马斯克淡出其在西方国家政治领域的高调逆反角色，但是消费者需求疲软仍然是拖累特斯拉全球销量的逆风因素。</p><p>在艰难的一年里(即2025年)，特斯拉将“全球最大规模电动车制造商”的头衔让给了总部位于中国的比亚迪。毋庸置疑的是，特斯拉在中国市场所面临的电动汽车竞争正在不断加剧，比如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">小米</a>等<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688257\">新锐</a>电动汽车制造商们推出面向未来科技、强调驾驶功能高度智能化的新电动汽车车型，正不断赢得中国消费者青睐。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/81810\">小米</a>推出的电动汽车产品直接瞄准特斯拉Model 3和Model Y。按中国汽车技术研究中心与Bloomberg Intelligence的统计数据，小米所推出的YU7运动型多用途车(即YU7 SUV)在中国某些月份甚至已逼近Model Y的销量数据;比如，11月小米YU7售出33,591辆，而Model Y则为33,935辆。</p><p>中国乘用车协会的的初步统计数据还显示，2025年12月全国新能源汽车批发销量——包括插电式混合动力汽车与纯电动汽车，同比小幅增长4%至157万辆。</p><p>按Bloomberg Intelligence基于协会数据的计算，中国全年新能源汽车销量大幅增长约25%。乘用车协会将于本月稍晚发布最终的2025年全年度销量数据。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AI与机器人梦想宏大，但电动汽车现实骨感：特斯拉在华市场连续两年萎缩</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAI与机器人梦想宏大，但电动汽车现实骨感：特斯拉在华市场连续两年萎缩\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-05 19:52 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1388818.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>1月5日，尽管12月出货规模稍微有所回升，但是全球电动汽车领军者特斯拉公司的中国工厂出货量在2025年全年度相比于2024年仍出现显著下滑。由全球首富埃隆·马斯克领导的这家全球大型车企在全球销量显著放缓之际举步维艰，并失去了全球电动汽车市占率第一以及在中国的电动汽车市场份额第一的双重宝座。随着比亚迪、“蔚小理”、小米等中国最知名的电动汽车厂商们持续推出具备新颖功能的新款车型，中国电动汽车市场竞争...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1388818.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8350896f4f33c86bc28f200b67ab82b4","relate_stocks":{"LU0672654240.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD-H1","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","SG9999015952.SGD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (SGD) ACC","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","LU2756315664.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMI\" (SGDHDG) INC","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","BK4516":"特朗普概念","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","LU1629891620.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG2\" (H2-HKD) INC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC 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ACC"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1388818.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2601885499","content_text":"1月5日，尽管12月出货规模稍微有所回升，但是全球电动汽车领军者特斯拉公司的中国工厂出货量在2025年全年度相比于2024年仍出现显著下滑。由全球首富埃隆·马斯克领导的这家全球大型车企在全球销量显著放缓之际举步维艰，并失去了全球电动汽车市占率第一以及在中国的电动汽车市场份额第一的双重宝座。随着比亚迪、“蔚小理”、小米等中国最知名的电动汽车厂商们持续推出具备新颖功能的新款车型，中国电动汽车市场竞争日趋激烈，特斯拉失去了中国市场以及全球最大规模电动汽车制造商的双重头衔，被比亚迪公司超越。根据中国乘用车协会的初步统计数据，特斯拉去年从其上海超级汽车工厂出货851,732辆电动汽车，较上年同期下降约7%。其中12月单月为97,171辆，而这仅是2025年第四个出现同比增长步伐的月份。值得注意的是，该份最新统计数据未拆分中国出货中出口的占比规模，不过其中大部分车辆在中国市场进行本地销售。上图显示，特斯拉在中国市场全年度出货量在2025年再次出现下滑。按2025年全年电动汽车销售/出货口径，特斯拉已把“全球电动汽车(EV/纯电BEV)第一”的榜首位置让给比亚迪，多家媒体与研究机构均据年度交付/销量数据作出这一最新的结论。中国市场的连续两年显著下滑凸显出特斯拉在其最大需求市场之一可能长期面临的艰难挑战。虽然市场对于特斯拉估值与基本面前景的展望已经全面转向基于特斯拉独家AI超算体系打造的FSD全自动驾驶、Robotaxi(完全无人自动驾驶出租车)，以及名为“擎天柱”的特斯拉AI人形机器人，但是特斯拉电动车销量与汽车业务基本面并未被削弱到无足轻重，它仍是当前现金流与资产负债表的支柱，也是FSD数据闭环与车队规模的基础(Robotaxi最终也要落到可规模化的车辆产能与运营)。更现实的是，在“特斯拉增长叙事换挡”的同时，市场仍会用交付、汽车毛利、价格竞争与区域份额去校准短期盈利与估值安全边际——所以销量对基本面影响更像是从“唯一主线”变成“底盘与约束条件”：销量/毛利决定“现金与投资者资金容错率”，而FSD/Robotaxi/Optimus决定“估值的上行想象力与特斯拉基本面前景天花板”。近几周多家媒体与卖方分析师们都直言，特斯拉在交付下滑背景下仍能维持高估值，主要靠投资者们以及“马斯克信徒们”押注其在自动驾驶与机器人上的潜在“平台级”增量利润池;甚至连特斯拉自身对交付的更保守展望，也被一些马斯克信徒解读为“短期汽车业务走弱无碍马斯克仍在大举押注自动驾驶/机器人创收大规模兑现”。然而，这并不意味着汽车业务不重要，而是意味着股价的边际定价因子更偏向“什么时候、以何种监管路径、在多大规模上实现可商业化的无人驾驶与Robotaxi”。此前这家总部位于美国奥斯汀的大型车企在第三季度交付量出现跳升，主要因为消费者在一项至关重要的美国电动汽车补贴到期前美国消费者们积极抢购电动车;但随着包括美国在内的全球各国缩减电动汽车政策支持，特斯拉所面临的需求疲软挑战仍在持续。此外，尽管马斯克淡出其在西方国家政治领域的高调逆反角色，但是消费者需求疲软仍然是拖累特斯拉全球销量的逆风因素。在艰难的一年里(即2025年)，特斯拉将“全球最大规模电动车制造商”的头衔让给了总部位于中国的比亚迪。毋庸置疑的是，特斯拉在中国市场所面临的电动汽车竞争正在不断加剧，比如小米等新锐电动汽车制造商们推出面向未来科技、强调驾驶功能高度智能化的新电动汽车车型，正不断赢得中国消费者青睐。小米推出的电动汽车产品直接瞄准特斯拉Model 3和Model Y。按中国汽车技术研究中心与Bloomberg Intelligence的统计数据，小米所推出的YU7运动型多用途车(即YU7 SUV)在中国某些月份甚至已逼近Model Y的销量数据;比如，11月小米YU7售出33,591辆，而Model Y则为33,935辆。中国乘用车协会的的初步统计数据还显示，2025年12月全国新能源汽车批发销量——包括插电式混合动力汽车与纯电动汽车，同比小幅增长4%至157万辆。按Bloomberg Intelligence基于协会数据的计算，中国全年新能源汽车销量大幅增长约25%。乘用车协会将于本月稍晚发布最终的2025年全年度销量数据。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1.98}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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