先进封装火了，2026谁吃香？

半导体产业纵横01-05

本文由半导体产业纵横（ID：ICVIEWS）编译自technews中国台湾半导体产业产值预计2026年维持19%高速成长，先进封装扩产加速成拉升整体产业潜力的关键动能。全球高效能运算（HPC）与人工智能（AI）芯片需求持续井喷的情况下，共同推动半导体产业重心加速转向先进制程与先进封装领域。根据企业的最新产业展望，中国台湾半导体产业产值预计在2026 年将维持19% 的高速成长。其中，先进封装的扩产...

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packaging is on fire, who will be popular in 2026?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"ASX":1.87,"03145":0.6,"TSM":1.97},"content_text":"本文由半导体产业纵横（ID：ICVIEWS）编译自technews中国台湾半导体产业产值预计2026年维持19%高速成长，先进封装扩产加速成拉升整体产业潜力的关键动能。全球高效能运算（HPC）与人工智能（AI）芯片需求持续井喷的情况下，共同推动半导体产业重心加速转向先进制程与先进封装领域。根据企业的最新产业展望，中国台湾半导体产业产值预计在2026 年将维持19% 的高速成长。其中，先进封装的扩产加速被视为整体产业上修潜力的关键动能之一。随着芯片设计复杂度、测试难度以及封装尺寸持续攀升，先进封装已成为延续摩尔定律、实现异构集成、提升芯片算力的重要推手。晶圆代工龙头引领CoWoS 产能跃升中国台湾晶圆代工领导者台积电凭借其在前后段制程的领导地位，持续主导先进封装市场。由于云端AI 引领GPU/ASIC 需求上升， CoWoS（Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate） 先进封装供不应求状况加剧。为满足强劲的AI 芯片需求，台积电正加速扩充CoWoS 产能。产能大幅上修：上修台积电2026年底CoWoS产能预估14%，达到125Kwpm（千片/月），且预计2027 年底将进一步提升至170Kwpm。台积电的先进封装技术正朝向多元化发展，除了CoWoS 的强劲需求外，SoIC（System-on-Integrated-Chips） 技术已获得AMD MI300 等产品应用，NVIDIA、Broadcom 也预计在2027 年后导入。此外，苹果的A20 芯片预计将导入WMCM（Wafer-level Multi-Chip Module），用于iPhone 18/ 折叠手机。台积电正在开发CoPoS（Chip-on-Package-on-Substrate） 技术，预计在2027年后导入AI/HPC 相关芯片，目的在提升封装面积利用率、生产效率并降低成本。台积电的先进封装厂区广泛分布，包括龙潭（AP3）、台中（AP5）、竹南（AP6）、嘉义（AP7）、台南（AP8）等。其中，AP8 的扩产加速主要用于满足CoWoS-L 的需求，而嘉义的AP7 则专注于SoIC 和WMCM。在美国亚利桑那州（Arizona）的AP9 和AP10 厂区，未来规划亦将包含CoWoS、SoIC 及CoPoS 技术。OSAT 加速承接外溢订单，面板级封装成长期动能由于台积电CoWoS 产能吃紧，且CSP（云端服务供应商）考量分散业务风险，委外封测代工（OSAT） 企业正成为此波AI 封测需求扩张的第二波成长动能。日月光投控预计将可满足外溢的AI芯片需求，特别是CoWoS-S/R 部分。此外，晶圆级测试（CP）LEAP（先进封装及测试）业务显著成长。OSAT 端的CoWoS 扩产将在2026 年进入成长加速期。日月光投控的先进封装产能预计将由2025 年底的5 Kwpm，快速成长至2026 年底的20 Kwpm。在先进封装产能陆续开出、产品组合转佳以及台积电释出更多先进封装及CP 测试订单的挹注下，OSAT产业产值预计2026年将加速年增至17%，达到8,600亿元新高。为优化AI 芯片的整体拥有成本，并应对芯片尺寸不断增长的趋势，OSAT 企业正积极发展面板级封装。由于圆形中介层在尺寸超过9.5x 光罩大小时经济效益大幅缩减，OSAT 厂商（如日月光投控、Amkor、力成）倾向采用大尺寸面板封装方案（如日月光的FoCoS 采用600×600mm 规格，Amkor 的HPLPT 为650×650mm），以追求生产效益最大化，此趋势将带来优越的成本效益比。测试复杂度提升，供应链全面受惠先进封装的导入及AI 芯片的升级，使得芯片测试变得更加关键且复杂。 AI GPU/ASIC 芯片测试时间倍增，测试复杂度和封装尺寸持续上升。AI 芯片失效的成本极高，促使产业必须提供完整的测试项目覆盖，以提升终端运行的稳定性。测试产值预计在2026 年将扩张至34% 的成长率，达到1,156 亿元。晶圆测试（CP，Chip Probing）外包趋势确立，有利于中国台湾测试界面厂商。高功率和高温需求推升探针卡组装与设计难度，有利于旺硅（探针卡，特别是ASIC订单）。最终测试（FT）和系统级测试（SLT）面临散热和尺寸挑战。 NVIDIA 下一代Rubin 芯片功耗预计将达2.3kw，为Blackwell B200 的1.6 倍，带动SLT 设备必须再次升级。其中，鸿劲凭借在HPC分选机（Handler）超过80% 的市占率，受惠于AI 加速器中介层尺寸持续放大和散热规格提升，其HPC 分选机出货量预计在2026 年成长20%。在致茂方面，受惠于SLT 设备升级（Rubin 机台ASP 预计提升33%），以及Metrology（探针针痕机）设备逐步导入国内晶圆代工厂和OSAT 的先进封装新建产线。最后在颖崴部分，受惠于大尺寸封装测试座需求，其测试座在NVIDIA AI GPU 的领导地位稳固。设备与厂务迎接扩产加速期中国台湾持续明确的 “+1建厂趋势” 和先进封装产能的上修动能，使设备与厂务族群营运转佳。由于台积电CoWoS 新增扩产需求，以及OSAT 端CoWoS 扩产将于2026 年进入成长加速期，整体设备厂务族群2026 年营收预计将成长17%。在先进封装设备类股的选择上，弘塑做为先进封装设备首选，提供CoWoS、SoIC 及WMCM 的湿制程设备及化学品整合方案。预估台积电/日月光投控2026 年先进封装资本支出将年增29%，弘塑营收预计年增24%。至于，志圣则是专注于光与热为核心技术的设备（如贴膜、压膜、烘烤、除泡），营收结构横跨半导体先进封装与先进PCB。受惠于CoWoS、SoIC、WMCM 等先进封装扩产需求，其先进封装业务营收预计年增49%。在厂务及耗材类股选择上，台积电在中国台湾规划增加至少4 座先进封装厂，因此帆宣受惠于建厂需求，特别是台积电美国厂建置加速。作为自动化供应系统厂商，其在手订单已突破940 亿元，能见度延伸至2027 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先进封装火了，2026谁吃香？