权益市场突变，A50一度跌超1%！分析：三大变数来袭

券商中国01-07

权益市场出现了一些变数！今天，亚太市场中有两大市场表现乏力，其一是港股集体下跌，其二是日本股市全天走弱。并由此导致了A50一度下跌近1%。受此影响，虚拟币市场亦有趋弱的势头。那么，究竟发生了什么？首先，有外资机构下调阿里巴巴评级，给恒生科技股带来了一定的利空；其次，有色金属股（特别是贵金属）集体杀跌，亦成为市场杀跌之助力；第三，经中信证券测算，1月由于政府债融资、M0季节性波动、缴准基数扩大等原因...

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260107162830a6fdd6ba&s=b><strong>券商中国</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>权益市场出现了一些变数！今天，亚太市场中有两大市场表现乏力，其一是港股集体下跌，其二是日本股市全天走弱。并由此导致了A50一度下跌近1%。受此影响，虚拟币市场亦有趋弱的势头。那么，究竟发生了什么？首先，有外资机构下调阿里巴巴评级，给恒生科技股带来了一定的利空；其次，有色金属股（特别是贵金属）集体杀跌，亦成为市场杀跌之助力；第三，经中信证券测算，1月由于政府债融资、M0季节性波动、缴准基数扩大等原因...</p>\n\n<a 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Analysis: Three major variables are coming","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"159593":1.87,"09988":1.91,"ALBmain":0.6,"02899":0.9,"BABA":1.91},"content_text":"权益市场出现了一些变数！今天，亚太市场中有两大市场表现乏力，其一是港股集体下跌，其二是日本股市全天走弱。并由此导致了A50一度下跌近1%。受此影响，虚拟币市场亦有趋弱的势头。那么，究竟发生了什么？首先，有外资机构下调阿里巴巴评级，给恒生科技股带来了一定的利空；其次，有色金属股（特别是贵金属）集体杀跌，亦成为市场杀跌之助力；第三，经中信证券测算，1月由于政府债融资、M0季节性波动、缴准基数扩大等原因，存在一定的流动性缺口。然而，更值得关注的是大量结汇对流动性的影响。日本的麻烦1月7日，日经225指数收盘跌1.06%，报51961.98点。权重股任天堂大跌4.65%，爱德万测试大跌4.41%，日立跌3.34%，索尼跌3.28%，迅销跌2.74%。日元在亚洲时段继续对美元处于弱势，但跌幅明显受限，30年期日本国债收益率涨1.5个基点报3.505%，创纪录高位，日本2025年12月服务业PMI终值51.6。澳洲标普200指数收盘跌0.32%，报8695.6点。但韩国综合指数收盘上涨0.57%，报4551.06点。权重股中，现代汽车领涨，涨幅达13.8%；现代摩比斯上涨7.24%，起亚汽车上涨5.55%，韩国锌业上涨3.94%。港股市场跌幅也比较大。恒生指数午后失守26400点，跌幅一度超355点；恒生科技指数一度跌超2%。阿里巴巴跌3.979%，美团跌2.262%，腾讯跌1.976%。汇丰控股私有化恒生银行审议前夕，汇控回吐1.55%。可能是受港股带动，A50一度跌超1%。A股也一度跳水，但从整体指数来看，A股依然较为强势。截至收盘，沪指涨0.05%，深成指涨0.06%，创业板指涨0.31%。三大变数市场似乎存在三大变数，第一大变数来自阿里巴巴。自由资本市场（Freedom Capital Markets）当地时间周二将阿里巴巴评级从“买入”下调至“持有”，并将目标价从180美元/股下调至140美元/股。此次降级发生在阿里巴巴报告季度业绩超出预期之际，云业务成为该公司的主要增长驱动力。自由资本市场表示，他们担忧与云业务相关的资本支出急剧增加，而回报前景仍不确定。该机构还指出，尽管阿里巴巴在广告方面投入巨大，其零售业务与其他电子商务竞争对手相比增长较为温和。阿里巴巴在不大幅增加成本的情况下，扩展零售和云业务的能力将是未来几个季度影响阿里巴巴表现的主要因素。第二大变数来自贵金属。周三金价下跌，投资者进行获利了结，同时美元走强在本周关键就业数据公布前对整个贵金属板块情绪形成压制。GoldSilver Central董事总经理Brian Lan表示：“（贵金属）本周上涨（过快），总会出现一些获利回吐……美元也对价格形成了压力。”投资者预计美联储今年至少会降息两次，并关注周五公布的非农就业数据以获取更多线索。周三公布的JOLTS职位空缺调查和ADP就业数据也可能为市场定调。从A股来看，昨天大涨的紫金矿业今天出现了调整，也给沪指带来了一定压力。第三，流动性亦存变数。中信证券认为，在美元贬值预期下，为了维持外汇储备相对稳定，外汇占款很难大幅增加；然而央行不购汇但商业银行持续为企业结汇，会直接消耗银行体系内的“超额准备金”，从而在银行间市场造成结构性的流动性收紧压力。但最终资金面是否会趋势性收紧，取决于央行的对冲操作。央行可能持续通过逆回购、中期借贷便利（MLF）等货币政策工具进行“削峰填谷”，以维持流动性合理充裕。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2601875014","isCrawlerRequest":true}