自动驾驶巴士解锁万亿市场的商业确定性

极目新闻01-07

长期以来，市场对自动驾驶巴士的认知被困在“千亿级”的框架里，但随着政策、需求、场景与技术的四重共振，一个万亿规模的智行蓝海正悄然崛起。四重共振：重构赛道的价值边界要理解Robobus的万亿潜力，需从政策、需求、场景和技术四个维度去寻找答案。首先，全球范围内的政策加码，正在为Robobus市场搭建起确定性的发展框架。早在2023年11月，就发文推动智能网联汽车准入和上路通行试点，支持L3级及更高级别...

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market","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"81211":0.6,"516520":1.86,"002594":0.6,"01211":0.9,"HYDD.SI":0.6,"BYDDY":0.6},"content_text":"长期以来，市场对自动驾驶巴士的认知被困在“千亿级”的框架里，但随着政策、需求、场景与技术的四重共振，一个万亿规模的智行蓝海正悄然崛起。四重共振：重构赛道的价值边界要理解Robobus的万亿潜力，需从政策、需求、场景和技术四个维度去寻找答案。首先，全球范围内的政策加码，正在为Robobus市场搭建起确定性的发展框架。早在2023年11月，就发文推动智能网联汽车准入和上路通行试点，支持L3级及更高级别自动驾驶功能商业化运用。截至2025年，国内已有28个城市开放L4级自动驾驶测试，通过政策沙盒支持Robobus开展示范应用。中国政策密度与推进力度均居全球前列，已完成从“封闭测试”到“全域开放”的跨越。国际市场的动作同样密集。新加坡明确2025年底前将自动驾驶车辆纳入全国公交体系，三大智慧城市示范区率先布局；德国、法国则在园区、景区等封闭场景完成规模化试点，预计2026年推出跨区域开放道路政策等等。市场需求亦正在爆发。随着老龄化加剧，劳动力结构性短缺和人力成本高企已成全球公交行业难题。Robobus的规模化应用不仅能填补人力空白，更将大幅降低公交运营成本。根据Fortune Business INSIGHTS测算，全球城市客车市场规模到2032年将达4320亿美元，仅智能化升级就催生出超千亿美元的市场。除此之外，丰富的适配场景开拓了Robobus的应用边界。从上海的“无人夜宵巴士”试点填补夜间交通空白，到机场、园区、景区、大型赛事活动的定制化接驳服务，Robobus已从单一的公交替代，升级为多元场景的智能出行解决方案，商业前景激增。技术端的成熟突破，提供了自动驾驶巴士落地的“临门一脚” 。当前的L4级自动驾驶技术正进入以“端到端大模型”为核心的2.0阶段，显著提升了在复杂城市场景下的泛化能力和决策效率。在这一背景下，自动驾驶技术的渗透正在加速，预计Robobus在2032年市场规模将达405亿-470亿美元，其商业化前景将不容小觑。梯次破局：从景区接驳驶向城市干线国内的Robobus的落地目前呈现出“文旅景区先行、城市公交跟进”的梯次化特征。早在 2022 年，江西龙虎山景区就引入了自动驾驶小巴，验证了技术在复杂山地丘陵路况下的稳定性。此后，天津生态城的“旅游+生活”混合场景、乌镇世界互联网大会等大型活动，进一步验证了Robobus的商业可行性。如今，这种能力正溢向城市公开道路。目前，北京、上海、苏州等城市已经率先跑通了成熟的运营模式：北京经开区的Robobus实现了公开道路常态化载人运营，苏州落地了国内首个常态化无人公交项目，而上海嘉定作为智能网联汽车示范区，不仅将蘑菇车联MOGOBUS纳入日常接驳场景，更成为其AI大模型的核心测试与落地基地。不过因为并不像Robotaxi那样饱受关注，Robobus尚未陷入过于激烈的市场竞争，这使得以蘑菇车联为代表的头部企业得以借此抢占先机。据爱分析测算，蘑菇车联在全栈技术能力、场景落地能力、可持续盈利能力等多个维度均为领先，市占率位居第一，已建立起深厚的技术与市场壁垒。具体来说，蘑菇车联提出了“视觉为主+固态激光雷达”的方案，全栈自研了端到端系统MOGO AutoPilot，并拥有全球最大的巴士数据集以及独有的路侧数据集等等，在技术上代际领先。也因此，作为全球唯一同时具备“L4全栈技术+城市级AI调度平台+发达国家主干道商业化落地”实力的Robobus企业，蘑菇车联得以于去年10月联手比亚迪，中标新加坡首条L4级Robobus公交线，成功将“中国方案”输出至海外发达国家。作为被低估的“增长极”，多数人仅将自动驾驶巴士视为“传统巴士的替代”，却忽略了它是智慧城市重要基建与智能交通体系的核心环节，更是“短距、中低速、高频”接驳场景的最佳解决方案。在政策、需求、场景和技术四重因素共振的驱动下，自动驾驶巴士正在释放万亿潜力，成为自动驾驶行业可能最具商业确定性的垂直赛道。在这个过程中，以蘑菇车联为代表的先行者，正稳健地主导着交通图景的重构。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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