阿里巴巴-W阿里千问破局，云业务利润率提升可期

浙商证券01-06

一句话逻辑：阿里巴巴作为国内领先的卡位AI全栈的云平台公司，云业务高景气+中期利润率提升的高确定性，将带来估值提升。区别于市场：1)被低估的千问2C潜力。2)现金流承压主因即时零售投入，净现金保障充裕。要点1：阿里千问公测23天MAU破3000万，成全球增长最快AI应用之一，与豆包竞争AI入口。阿里千问通过“免费+增值+B端开源”，同时与阿里生态融合，重点聚焦专业级场景与长上下文处理。豆包则以超1...

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increase","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":1.96,"ALBmain":0.6,"09988":1.96},"content_text":"一句话逻辑：阿里巴巴作为国内领先的卡位AI全栈的云平台公司，云业务高景气+中期利润率提升的高确定性，将带来估值提升。区别于市场：1)被低估的千问2C潜力。2)现金流承压主因即时零售投入，净现金保障充裕。要点1：阿里千问公测23天MAU破3000万，成全球增长最快AI应用之一，与豆包竞争AI入口。阿里千问通过“免费+增值+B端开源”，同时与阿里生态融合，重点聚焦专业级场景与长上下文处理。豆包则以超1亿DAU居国内AI原生应用榜首，采用闭源多模态Agent路线与“免费+增值+B端MaaS”模式，覆盖全场景与轻量高频需求。二者在模型架构、生态布局、核心能力与适用场景上形成差异化竞争。要点2：千问有望以AI Agent“自主决策+动态协同”能力重塑阿里生态。在电商领域，千问重构“人货场”全链路，商家端通过AI团队降本增效，消费者端借助AI万能搜、比价、个性化推荐优化体验。飞猪“问一问”功能7×24小时拆解复杂出行需求，联动实时数据生成可一键预订的完整行程。2025年12月千问与高德实现系统级对接，接入超2亿POI与实时时空引擎，标志千问向生活助手转型，实现从“意图理解”到“服务执行”的跨越。要点3：资本开支高增、自由现金流承压但现金保障充裕，云业务利润率长期提升的确定性高。阿里巴巴25Q3的资本开支达到314.28亿人民币，同比增幅达到85.12%，处于高速增长期。阿里巴巴25Q2、25Q3连续两个季度自由现金流下降引发市场担忧。公司25Q3自由现金流为-218.4亿，主要系“外卖大战”和大幅增加资本开支的影响。截至25Q3，阿里巴巴集团账面仍有2923亿人民币净现金和其他流动性投资，为新业务投入提供保障。阿里云的EBITA Margin相较于亚马逊AWS、微软智能云的经营利润率还有较大的差距，但可以从google cloud过去的经验印证：随着规模的提升(规模效应的释放)，公有云业务的利润提升弹性大。这也意味着随着阿里云规模的增长，在跨越早期高投入的阶段后，长期利润率提升的确定性较高，且利润率提升空间大。与此同时，阿里云出海也会带来规模提升、盈利能力提升的影响。检验与催化：阿里巴巴智能云业务集团利润率提升。盈利预测与估值我们预计公司FY2026-2028的收入为10682.27、11778.75、12981.16亿元，同比增速为7.2%、10.3%、10.2%；归属于普通股东的经调整净利润为1198.52、1601.10、2136.25亿元，同比增速为-24.1%、33.6%和33.4%。我们采用分布估值法对公司进行估值，考虑后续年度利润的高成长性，我们对公司FY2027年经调整净利润给予12倍PE，对FY2027年云业务收入给予7倍PS，对应目标价为189.09港币/股，维持“买入”评级。风险提示产业竞争加剧、AI应用商业化落地不及预期。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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