广发证券：煤炭业有望迎来新周期估值弹性有望显现

智通财经网01-05

智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，十四五煤价中枢大幅上移，十五五煤炭业有望迎来新周期，价值凸显。总体来看，行业景气度正在改善，十五五有望稳中向好。该行认为26年煤炭价格中枢有望提升至750元/吨左右，龙头公司股息率多为4-6%水平，优势明显。尤其在煤价悲观预期扭转后，估值弹性有望显现。广发证券主要观点如下：周期复盘：十四五煤价中枢大幅上移，十五五有望迎来新周期复盘煤炭行业各轮周期，近五年需求...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2601764040?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2026-01-05 10:15","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","id":"2601764040","market":"hk","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"广发证券：煤炭业有望迎来新周期 估值弹性有望显现","media":"智通财经网","content":"<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，十四五煤价中枢大幅上移，十五五煤炭业有望迎来新周期，价值凸显。总体来看，行业景气度正在改善，十五五有望稳中向好。该行认为26年煤炭价格中枢有望提升至750元/吨左右，龙头公司股息率多为4-6%水平，优势明显。尤其在煤价悲观预期扭转后，估值弹性有望显现。广发证券主要观点如下：周期复盘：十四五煤价中枢大幅上移，十五五有望迎来新周期复盘煤炭行业各轮周期，近五年需求...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1388461.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>广发证券：煤炭业有望迎来新周期 估值弹性有望显现</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n广发证券：煤炭业有望迎来新周期 估值弹性有望显现\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-05 10:15 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1388461.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，十四五煤价中枢大幅上移，十五五煤炭业有望迎来新周期，价值凸显。总体来看，行业景气度正在改善，十五五有望稳中向好。该行认为26年煤炭价格中枢有望提升至750元/吨左右，龙头公司股息率多为4-6%水平，优势明显。尤其在煤价悲观预期扭转后，估值弹性有望显现。广发证券主要观点如下：周期复盘：十四五煤价中枢大幅上移，十五五有望迎来新周期复盘煤炭行业各轮周期，近五年需求...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1388461.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK0188","symbol_name":"融资融券","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1388461.html","article_id":"2601764040","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2601764040","pubTimestamp":1767579305,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","name":"智通财经网"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，十四五煤价中枢大幅上移，十五五煤炭业有望迎来新周期，价值凸显。尤其在煤价悲观预期扭转后，估值弹性有望显现。广发证券主要观点如下：周期复盘：十四五煤价中枢大幅上移，十五五有望迎来新周期复盘煤炭行业各轮周期，近五年需求增速和煤价中枢均有提升。总体来看，行业景气度正在改善，十五五有望稳中向好。尤其2026年是十五五首年，宏观政策力度或加大，煤炭需求韧性显现，增速或超过1%。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"zhitongcaijing.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"161032":"煤炭","BK0188":"融资融券","BK1147":"投资银行业与经纪业","BK0012":"证金概念","000776":"广发证券","BK1564":"中资券商股","LU1934453819.USD":"AB CHINA A SHARES EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK0183":"MSCI概念","BK0028":"国家队","LU1979443071.USD":"AB CHINA A SHARES EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (USDHDG) INC","BK0276":"资本市场","SG9999001093.SGD":"United Greater China Fund A Acc SGD","01776":"广发证券"},"translate_title":"GF Securities: The coal industry is expected to usher in a new cycle and valuation flexibility is expected to emerge","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"161032":1.5,"01776":1.5,"000776":1.5},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，十四五煤价中枢大幅上移，十五五煤炭业有望迎来新周期，价值凸显。总体来看，行业景气度正在改善，十五五有望稳中向好。该行认为26年煤炭价格中枢有望提升至750元/吨左右，龙头公司股息率多为4-6%水平，优势明显。尤其在煤价悲观预期扭转后，估值弹性有望显现。广发证券主要观点如下：周期复盘：十四五煤价中枢大幅上移，十五五有望迎来新周期复盘煤炭行业各轮周期，近五年需求增速和煤价中枢均有提升。从2025年来看，上半年行业延续景气回落，下半年供需从宽松转向平衡略偏紧。港口动力煤/焦煤全年均价同比分别-18%/-25%，而下半年环比分别+6%/+19%，供需方面：(1)火电发电量1-11月同比-0.7%(下半年整体好转);(2)化工需求/钢材产量分别+11%/+4%，体现一定韧性;(3)前11月煤炭产量+1.4%，相比上半年5.4%大幅回落，而进口累计同比下降12%。总体来看，行业景气度正在改善，十五五有望稳中向好。供给重构：从保供增长，到达峰回落20-24年煤炭产量累计增长23%至47.8亿吨。25年产量增速显著回落，1-11月新疆产量仅增2.6%，晋陕蒙增速也降至1.2%。进入十五五，煤炭产量或从过去五年的保供增长，进入达峰回落阶段。预计26年-28年产量增速在0.5%-1.0%水平(受监管政策影响阶段性可能负增长)。需求重构：电力时代需求结构向上，增长韧性或延续25年电力耗煤成为拖累煤炭需求的重要因素。但下半年开始用电量增速大幅回升(前11月+5.2%)，同时风光新增装机/利用小时/发电量增速均有下降。展望未来五年，该行认为受益于新兴制造和数字算力快速增长、三产和居民电气化进一步提升，用电需求有望维持约5%增长，而新能源新增装机相对过去三年或有放缓，火电发电量仍有增长空间，同时化工需求增速预计约5%，而钢铁和建材降幅有望收窄。尤其2026年是十五五首年，宏观政策力度或加大，煤炭需求韧性显现，增速或超过1%。从全球供需、大宗商品、产业链视角看煤炭行业全球：26-30年预计煤炭主产国产量多有回落，而东南亚需求维持3-5%增长(IEA预计25-30年全球产量和消费量复合增速分别为-1.1%/-0.6%)，供需整体紧平衡;商品：相对于其他大宗品，煤炭表现偏弱，尤其是铜煤比、金煤比处于历史高位;产业链：煤炭占工业利润已降至历史低位(前11月5%)，钢铁、建材亦回落明显，而电力占比已达10%高位。风险提示下游需求回落，产量和进口量超预期增长，成本大幅提升。更多港股重磅资讯，下载智通财经app更多港股及海外理财资讯，请点击www.zhitongcaijing.com（搜索“智通财经”）；欲加入智通港股投资群，请加智通客服微信(ztcjkf)","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2601764040","isCrawlerRequest":true}

广发证券：煤炭业有望迎来新周期 估值弹性有望显现

精彩评论

广发证券：煤炭业有望迎来新周期估值弹性有望显现