大厂正在抛弃GPU

半导体行业观察01-05 09:47

英伟达的人工智能加速器H200供不应求，凸显了全球人工智能基础设施市场严重的供应短缺。预计今年图形处理器（GPU）的订单量将高达200万块，但目前可用的GPU仅有约70万块。如果GPU无法按时供应，数据中心的建设进度可能会受到影响，这将促使大型科技公司寻求使用专用集成电路（ASIC）作为替代方案。5日，市场研究公司TrendForce表示，预计今年人工智能服务器市场中，云服务公司对自研ASIC的...

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GPUs","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"NVD2.UK":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"ON":0.79,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"ASIC":1,"TCO":1,"NVDX":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVDA":0.79,"GOOGL":0.9,"GOOG":0.9,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"HBM":1,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"CAGR":1,"NVDU":0.6,"AMZN":0.9,"NVDS.UK":0.6},"content_text":"英伟达的人工智能加速器H200供不应求，凸显了全球人工智能基础设施市场严重的供应短缺。预计今年图形处理器（GPU）的订单量将高达200万块，但目前可用的GPU仅有约70万块。如果GPU无法按时供应，数据中心的建设进度可能会受到影响，这将促使大型科技公司寻求使用专用集成电路（ASIC）作为替代方案。5日，市场研究公司TrendForce表示，预计今年人工智能服务器市场中，云服务公司对自研ASIC的需求增速将超过GPU的需求增速。云公司ASIC的增长率预计为44.6%，高于GPU的16.1%。这被解读为GPU供应受限正在加速ASIC普及的结构性信号。尽管GPU用途广泛、性能卓越，且人工智能基础设施部署迅速，但业界预计其供应链风险将在今年达到顶峰。GPU的生产工艺、封装和高带宽内存（HBM）相互关联，因此任何一个环节的瓶颈都可能导致整体供应中断。尤其值得注意的是，市场对英伟达（Nvidia）的人工智能半导体需求激增，但英伟达和全球最大的晶圆代工厂台积电（TSMC）的产能甚至无法满足50%的需求。台积电正在扩建先进封装工艺生产线，这些生产线对于生产人工智能加速器至关重要，例如CoWoS（芯片封装在晶圆基板上）。然而，由于产能扩张投资需要时间，今年订单量快速增长与实际出货量之间必然会出现差距。在此背景下，ASIC芯片——去年由谷歌的张量处理单元（TPU）引领，开创了新的发展趋势——正受到广泛关注。由于ASIC芯片是为特定的AI工作负载而设计的，因此初始开发成本较高，但从长远来看，它们在能效、性能和总体拥有成本（TCO）方面具有优势。谷歌已经通过TPU在内部处理了相当一部分AI训练和推理任务，亚马逊也在利用Trainium和Inferentia等专用芯片重塑其云成本结构。市场研究公司Mordor Intelligence在一份半导体市场报告中指出，人工智能加速器市场的ASIC机构用户预计到2030年将保持约28%的复合年增长率（CAGR）。另一家市场研究公司Credence Research也预测，生成式人工智能ASIC市场规模将从2024年的约249亿美元增长到2032年的约1867亿美元，年均增长率约为28.6%。业界普遍认为今年将是ASIC市场增长的关键转折点。亚马逊网络服务（AWS）一位高管表示：“此次供应短缺是短期现象，但会对决策产生长期影响。”他还补充道：“从大型科技公司的角度来看，GPU不再是稳定的‘基本商品’，而已成为易受外部因素影响的战略资产。因此，降低GPU依赖度、提高ASIC在新数据中心投资计划中的占比，正逐渐成为切实可行的替代方案。”参考链接https://biz.chosun.com/en/en-it/2026/01/05/GCYZD5MYRNA6HE4J7AWJTUNXCI/（来源：编译自chosun）*免责声明：本文由作者原创。文章内容系作者个人观点，半导体行业观察转载仅为了传达一种不同的观点，不代表半导体行业观察对该观点赞同或支持，如果有任何异议，欢迎联系半导体行业观察。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, 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