2025全年销量出炉：汽车行业维持“一超多强”格局，三大预期打开行业空间

智通财经01-08

2025年刚迈过去，这一年发生了很多事，专研产品及技术的零跑很少露面，却能作出斐然的成绩，2024年创始人IP盛行一时，如今却遭受舆论旋涡，此外，“降价+内卷”依旧是汽车行业的主旋律，BBA大降价促销，特斯拉销量下滑，这风云变幻的市场格局剑指国产新能源崛起。智通财经APP了解到，汽车行业陆续公布了这一年的销量，整体格局稳定，比亚迪仍一家独大，而局部市场份额有所变动，零跑成为最大的新势力黑马，但几家...

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href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1390275.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2025年刚迈过去，这一年发生了很多事，专研产品及技术的零跑很少露面，却能作出斐然的成绩，2024年创始人IP盛行一时，如今却遭受舆论旋涡，此外，“降价+内卷”依旧是汽车行业的主旋律，BBA大降价促销，特斯拉销量下滑，这风云变幻的市场格局剑指国产新能源崛起。智通财经APP了解到，汽车行业陆续公布了这一年的销量，整体格局稳定，比亚迪仍一家独大，而局部市场份额有所变动，零跑成为最大的新势力黑马，但几家...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1390275.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"EVS.SI","symbol_name":"MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility 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space","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"81211":0.6,"BYDDY":1.93,"000625":1.78,"002594":1.93,"01211":1.93,"EVS.SI":0.6,"GELYY":1.81,"HYDD.SI":0.6,"00175":1.81,"00285":0.73,"09863":1.95},"content_text":"2025年刚迈过去，这一年发生了很多事，专研产品及技术的零跑很少露面，却能作出斐然的成绩，2024年创始人IP盛行一时，如今却遭受舆论旋涡，此外，“降价+内卷”依旧是汽车行业的主旋律，BBA大降价促销，特斯拉销量下滑，这风云变幻的市场格局剑指国产新能源崛起。智通财经APP了解到，汽车行业陆续公布了这一年的销量，整体格局稳定，比亚迪仍一家独大，而局部市场份额有所变动，零跑成为最大的新势力黑马，但几家欢喜几家愁，部分传统合资品牌销量步入熊路。根据各大车企公布的销量，比亚迪以460.24万辆销量稳居第一，在新能源汽车上月销处于遥遥领先的地位，零跑以59.7万辆成为新势力的榜首，月销自2025年3月以来持续霸榜，且已连续9个月销冠。此外，以鸿蒙智行及小米汽车为代表的异军突起，销量在新势力中均脱颖而出。这销量数据的背后，是产品力及营销力等多维度要素的综合体现，然而根据乘联会，前11月新能源零售渗透率已超过50%，在高基数下增速趋于放缓趋势，市场蛋糕也越来越小，“三大预期”成为车企在“决赛圈”的制胜关键。喜忧参半，行业格局趋于稳定智通财经APP了解到，从12月份销量整体看，各大车企喜忧参半，一方面新势力普遍销量增长，其中零跑（09863）销量6.4万辆，增长达42.11%，蔚来销量4.81万辆，增长达54.6%，小米超过五万辆，增长超100%；另一方面，传统车企处境并乐观，老龙头上汽集团销量下滑达17.3%，其中上汽大众销量下滑高达32.4%。从全年销量看，大部分车企销量均实现了增长，传统车企中，比亚迪（01211）销量遥遥领先，而吉利以39%的增速领先于其他车企；而造车新势力普遍大幅增长，其中零跑增速103.1%，小鹏增速125.94%，蔚来增速46.9%，小米增速超200%，理想由于去年高基数及产品周期空挡，销量下滑19%。从新能源车销量来看，传统车企中，除了比亚迪外，其他车企均加速新能源化转型，2025年全年，上汽新能源车销量164.3万辆，同比增长33.12%，渗透率36.45%；吉利汽车新能源车168.78万辆，同比增长90%，渗透率55.78%；长安新能源车111万辆，同比增长51.1%，渗透率38.1%。新势力销量虽然增长较快，但在绝对值上仍逊于传统车企，值得一提的是，在国产新能源围剿下，海外车企特斯拉销量受挫，全球销量163.61万辆，同比下降8.6%，在中国市场销量仅为60万出头，市场份额持续下降。新能源汽车行业格局趋于稳定，不过可以清晰看到新能源汽车的三大方向：一是智驾，近期首批L3级有条件自动驾驶车型准入许可，L3级自动驾驶商业化应用在即，将为消费市场带来新动能；二是长续航需求，800V标航800公里的普遍推行，固态电池也将迎来投产预期；三是出口，自2024年下半年以来，新能源出口量持续大增，已成为各大车企角逐市场的必争之地。三大预期空间打开，关注低估值龙头机遇在AI发展浪潮下，智驾的运算及推理能力已经来到了L3级别。2025年12月份，工业和信息化部正式公布我国首批L3级有条件自动驾驶车型准入许可，其中长安牌SC7000AAARBEV型纯电动轿车及极狐牌BJ7001A61NBEV型纯电动轿车入选，而小鹏也获L3级自动驾驶道路测试牌照。政策推动，加上多元场景释放，无人驾驶也逐步渗透到各大领域，包括私家车、出租车以及矿车等，新能源汽车市场空间也进一步打开。长续航已经成为购车必选标准之一，增程以及插混之所以卖的好，主要是因为考虑到了长途驾驶需求，而目前标航普遍来到了800公里以上，且大部分标配800V，充电速度大幅提升，解决了长途顾虑，可吸引部分油车换车需求。另外固态电池拥有更强的充电性能及续航，海内外均在加码发力，在今年1月份，芬兰科技先驱 Donut Lab 凭借全球首款量产级全固态电池，而中国也有多家车企宣布即将量产车型，截至2025年年底，我国已有1.44万项固态电池相关专利。在出海方面，2025年新能源车出口火爆，以比亚迪及奇瑞为国产新能源代表，带动出口的大幅增长，全年出口量增速超过90%。奇瑞2025年出口量134.4万辆，同比增长17.4%，连续23年位居中国品牌乘用车出口第一，比亚迪紧跟其后，全年乘用车及皮卡在海外市场的累计销量104.96万辆，同比增长145%。对于车企而言，把握这三大预期，快速提升市场份额，以站稳行业地位。不过虽然大部分新势力高速增长，但仍处于亏损状态，现金流成为最核心的发展指标，现金流越充裕，决赛圈胜率更高。目前来看，零跑已实现盈利，且现金流强劲，经营现金流持续净流入，在这方面相比于同行处于领先地位。当然，2026年仍具有较大的挑战，一方面新能源车购置税补贴即将退坡，叠加两新政策补贴金额的不确定性，市场竞争可能会更加激烈；另一方面价格内卷加速市场出清，部分产品力及市场处于劣势车企，将逐步被淘汰，剩者为王。目前行业格局基本处于相对稳定的状态，比亚迪一家独大，新势力零跑领跑。从投资维度看，2025年汽车行业先扬后抑，目前处于调整周期，部分标的估值跌入黄金坑，且新能源汽车三大预期推动估值提升。比亚迪作为全球新能源汽车龙头，可投价值高，该公司全产业链布局，具备上游材料涨价的成本控制空间，终端汽车销量龙头稳固，地位难以撼动，且出海增长迅猛，已成为核心增长曲线之一。从各大投行的观点看，大和表示预计2026年其海外销量将达150-160万辆，相较2025年同比增60%-80%，乐观情境下可达200万辆，而核心增长驱动力仍为东南亚、欧洲及南美洲市场。零跑是新势力领头羊，销量已连续9个月销冠，势不可挡，主打年轻人的SUV，主力车型B系列及C系列均成为市场中爆款产品，出海也在加速增长，也稳居国内新势力出海龙头，并且是为数不多实现盈利的标的。美银证券研报指出，基于更强劲销量增长及海外扩张，受惠于强劲的车款周期与跟Stellantis的合作，美银对零跑的目标价为90港元，相比于目前价格高出了近一倍。另外，小鹏汽车也获得了多家投行看好，比如东吴证券研报指出，小鹏在C端以“增程+出海”为核心，依托批量爆款能力加速全球化；在B端，以前装量产优势和全栈自研技术切入Robotaxi千亿级市场，此外机器人IRON实现“仿生+AI”融合，2026年启动商业化试点，飞行汽车A868也计划2026年下半年开启交付。该公司具有多重光环优势，但多业务模式处于未盈利状态，商业化仍需市场验证。总的看来，2025年汽车行业喜忧参半，AI的高速发展以及智驾的普及，国产新能源汽车得到空前发展，不断挤压合资品牌的生存空间，但行业竞争非常激烈，谁都不想步入威马、哪咤及极越后尘。面对更加激烈的竞争环境，三大预期，包括智驾、续航及出海已成为各大车企业务开拓的重心。政策开路，市场预期打开，搏杀之下孰强孰弱，2026年新能源汽车行业仍旧是市场关注度最高的主题之一，关注低估值龙头的投资机会。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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