甲骨文2480亿美元的租金是又一个人工智能“炸弹”

韭菜热线01-06

彭博新闻记者克里斯·布莱恩特报道在甲骨文公司发布的所有令人震惊的人工智能数据中心建设成本中，最引人注目的是其财报发布和分析师电话会议后的第二天才出现。发布的更全面的 10 季度财报详细列出了 2480 亿美元的租赁付款承诺，其中“大部分”与数据中心和云容量安排有关，这家商业软件公司表示。这些贷款计划从现在开始到 2028 财年，但尚未计入其资产负债表。这比 9 月财报更新脚注中披露的多出近 ...

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公司等竞争，提供人工智能基础设施。甲骨文预计本财年至五月的资本支出将翻倍至 500 亿美元。这接近同期预测收入的 75%。分析师预计其未来五年累计资本支出将超过 3000 亿美元，而自由现金流可能在四年内保持负值。然而，这笔资金主要将用于设备，尤其是英伟达公司极其昂贵的人工智能芯片。它表示，拥有安装服务器和网络设备的建筑“其实并不是我们的专长”。它本可以补充说，甲骨文的资产负债表和现金储备远不如其他所谓的超大规模企业那么铁板钉钉，后者能同时拥有外壳和内部资产。甲骨文拥有 BBB 信用评级，属于甲骨文承诺保持的投资级评级的较低端。根据彭博社汇总的数据，净负债约为 1050 亿美元，包括已经开始的租赁义务。在数据中心租用空间可以减少前期支出，减少短期现金消耗。例如，甲骨文依赖一家名为 Crusoe Energy Systems 的初创公司在德克萨斯州阿比林建设其首个星际之门数据中心，资金来自 Blue Owl Capital Inc.。甲骨文未来的租赁承诺期限在 15 至 19 年之间，平均每年支付 146 亿美元的租金。作为背景介绍，这大约占其过去 12 个月 223 亿美元运营现金流的三分之二。如果一切顺利，这些支出应该是可控的，因为甲骨文预测其云基础设施部门到 2030 年年销售额将达到 1660 亿美元，是去年总额的 16 倍以上。其客户包括 OpenAI、Meta Platforms， Inc.和中国科技巨头字节跳动等 AI 领导者。在十月的一次投资者活动中，管理层表示租赁 AI 计算能力将带来 30%到 40%的毛利率——低于甲骨文销售商业软件的利润率，但仍相当实用。尽管如此，公司自己的年度报告明确指出可能出现的问题：“如果我们高估客户需求或数据中心容量需求，可能会被锁定在多年期的多余数据中心空间承诺中，导致盈利能力和现金流下降，因为第三方数据中心供应商通常要求我们支付高额合同终止费以提前终止此类义务。”从甲骨文租赁 AI 芯片的客户通常签订的合同期限远短于这些租赁。预计其 5230 亿美元的合同收入积压中，约 75%将在未来 60 个月内完成预订。“甲骨文实际上是在承担租赁期限风险而获得报酬，”罗斯柴尔德公司 Redburn 分析师亚历克斯·海斯尔上周告诉《金融时报》。据报道，该公司价值 3000 亿美元的 OpenAI 交易预计将在五年左右进行，但人们越来越担心萨姆·奥特曼这家耗费现金的初创公司能否履行其庞大的支出义务。如果他被迫缩减野心或选择不续约，神谕者就需要找别人来接替这个职位。即使是拥有 OpenAI 大部分股份的 Microsoft 公司的负责人，也对这种客户集中风险持怀疑态度。Satya Nadella 上个月在一档播客中表示，Microsoft “去为一家模型公司提供有限时间 RPO 的托管商”是不合理的，他指的是剩余的性能义务——另一种说法是未来收入受损。“你必须思考的不是未来五年你做什么，而是未来五十年你做什么。”如今，对人工智能计算能力的需求远远超过超大规模企业的能力，甲骨文无疑会不介意将人工智能芯片重新利用给其他客户。“每当我们发现有未被使用的容量时，它会很快被分配和配置，”联合首席执行官克莱·马古尔克上周表示。然而，一些专家担心未来的过剩。技术也存在过时的风险。甲骨文的服务器和网络设备会在六年内贬值，类似于超大规模同类公司。即使假设这现实可行，它也面临着巨大的折旧费用，可能需要在租赁中途对数据中心的技术进行昂贵升级。自 9 月 AI 热潮高峰以来，甲骨文股价已下跌 44%。与此同时，借贷成本的增加威胁使建设成本更加高昂。市场不再奖励它的大胆，肯定令人沮丧。但如果它不断出现像这样巨大的租赁数字，投资者肯定会紧张起来。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-2","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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