电子行业点评报告：台积电2nm量产提速，全球共振打开Fab和设备空间

开源证券01-08

（以下内容从开源证券《电子行业点评报告：台积电2nm量产提速，全球共振打开Fab和设备空间》研报附件原文摘录）事件：AI需求强劲，台积电先进制程有望涨价受益于AI热潮，台积电先进制程产能吃紧。据台媒，台积电已陆续与客户沟通，计划自2026年起至2029年，连续四年调升先进制程报价。我们认为，全球范围内持续供不应求背景下，先进制程扩产是大势所趋。台积电2nm量产、美国晶圆厂产能释放下先进制程需求仍然...

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global resonance opens up Fab and equipment space","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"688347":1.86,"688981":1.88,"TSM":1.96,"03145":0.6},"content_text":"（以下内容从开源证券《电子行业点评报告：台积电2nm量产提速，全球共振打开Fab和设备空间》研报附件原文摘录）事件：AI需求强劲，台积电先进制程有望涨价受益于AI热潮，台积电先进制程产能吃紧。据台媒，台积电已陆续与客户沟通，计划自2026年起至2029年，连续四年调升先进制程报价。我们认为，全球范围内持续供不应求背景下，先进制程扩产是大势所趋。台积电2nm量产、美国晶圆厂产能释放下先进制程需求仍然紧俏台积电N2节点于2025年Q4如期量产，初期月产能约为3.5万片晶圆，到2026年底有望升至14万片，高于此前市场预估的10万片。此外，据韩媒Digital Daily，台积电正大幅提前其亚利桑那州晶圆厂的制程节点量产时间表，3nm制程的大规模量产或将在2027年启动，较原计划提前一年。核心原因在于HPC客户推动4nm及以下的先进制程代工需求。当前即使在美国晶圆厂提前量产，2nm产能超预期的情况下，先进制程需求仍然紧俏。据台媒，台积电已向先进制程客户发出通知，计划自2026年至2029年连续四年上调晶圆代工价格。国内先进逻辑需求有望迅速提升，供给有望随需求同步增长从需求层面而言，当前国产AI芯片厂商由点及面，摩尔线程、沐曦股份及壁仞科技等集中上市，催生较为可观的先进制程代工需求。从供给而言，上海作为先进逻辑代工的大本营，2025年1-11月核心半导体设备进口规模约为558亿元，同比2024年提升41%，其他曝光设备仅2025年9-11月的进口数据就已经超过140亿元，2024年全年仅约150亿元，预示着较好的扩产节奏。同时往后看，随着国产先进制程代工技术走向成熟，先进制程“China for China”有望成为趋势，综合而言，我们认为先进制程需求与产能有望在“十五五”期间显著增长。中芯、华虹近期在资本市场动作频繁，盈利改善与先进逻辑积极进展可期近期，中芯国际公告两项关键资本运作，整合核心资产并加注先进产能。一方面，公司以约1.98倍PB的对价收购中芯北方剩余49%股权，中芯北方作为折旧高峰已过的优质资产，未来毛利率有望持续提升。据公司交易报告书公告，本次收购将带动2025年1-8月归母净利润提升19%，而对应股本提升仅7%。另一方面，公司联合股东对中芯南方增资近70亿美元，助力南方工厂更长期的发展，先进逻辑正蓄势待发。华虹也公布将以约10.42倍的价值比率收购华力微，公司盈利能力与收入体量将得到大幅改善。据公司交易报告书公告，本次收购将带动2025年1-8月收入规模提升30%、带动归母净利润提升269%，而对应股本提升仅11%。此外，华虹在无锡的9B厂开启土建招标，将建设一条工艺节点覆盖40-28/22nm工艺节点，月产能5.5万片的产线，提升长期增长空间。投资建议：半导体设备与代工行业有望受益先进制程需求增长受益标的：中芯国际、华虹半导体、北方华创、中微公司、拓荆科技、中科飞测、微导纳米、芯源微、华海清科、长川科技等。风险提示：下游扩产进度不及预期、行业竞争加剧。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"productRelease","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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