【市场聚焦】碳酸锂：最佳多头窗口期

中粮期货研究中心01-07

摘要2026年1月6日，碳酸锂期货市场延续了近期的强势格局，主力合约LC2605高开高走，增仓放量上行，一举突破前期关键阻力位，收涨停板于137940，市场情绪显著回暖。2026年一季度仍是碳酸锂做多的最佳窗口期，核心逻辑在于“供应滞后+需求刚性+低库存”的三重共振。碳酸锂价格有望继续上行至15万元/吨大关。一供应增量释放滞后短期来看，2026年一季度碳酸锂供应增量有限，成为供需紧平衡的核心支撑。...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2601424988?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2026-01-07 08:54","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","id":"2601424988","market":"hk","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"【市场聚焦】碳酸锂：最佳多头窗口期","media":"中粮期货研究中心","content":"<div>\n<p>摘要2026年1月6日，碳酸锂期货市场延续了近期的强势格局，主力合约LC2605高开高走，增仓放量上行，一举突破前期关键阻力位，收涨停板于137940，市场情绪显著回暖。2026年一季度仍是碳酸锂做多的最佳窗口期，核心逻辑在于“供应滞后+需求刚性+低库存”的三重共振。碳酸锂价格有望继续上行至15万元/吨大关。一供应增量释放滞后短期来看，2026年一季度碳酸锂供应增量有限，成为供需紧平衡的核心支撑。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260107090134a6fc3a3c&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>【市场聚焦】碳酸锂：最佳多头窗口期</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n【市场聚焦】碳酸锂：最佳多头窗口期\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-07 08:54 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260107090134a6fc3a3c&s=b><strong>中粮期货研究中心</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摘要2026年1月6日，碳酸锂期货市场延续了近期的强势格局，主力合约LC2605高开高走，增仓放量上行，一举突破前期关键阻力位，收涨停板于137940，市场情绪显著回暖。2026年一季度仍是碳酸锂做多的最佳窗口期，核心逻辑在于“供应滞后+需求刚性+低库存”的三重共振。碳酸锂价格有望继续上行至15万元/吨大关。一供应增量释放滞后短期来看，2026年一季度碳酸锂供应增量有限，成为供需紧平衡的核心支撑。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260107090134a6fc3a3c&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"SG9999006597.SGD","symbol_name":"United China-India Dynamic Growth SGD","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260107090134a6fc3a3c&s=b","article_id":"2601424988","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260107090134a6fc3a3c&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, .wx-sou","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2601424988","pubTimestamp":1767747284,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"tencent","name":"腾讯"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"2026年一季度仍是碳酸锂做多的最佳窗口期，核心逻辑在于“供应滞后+需求刚性+低库存”的三重共振。碳酸锂价格有望继续上行至15万元/吨大关。尽管前期市场担忧磷酸铁锂企业减产带来的需求收缩，但据则言最新调研数据，预计1月磷酸铁锂产量环比减量仅6%左右，处于预期下限，需求刚性支撑明显。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"SG9999006597.SGD":"United China-India Dynamic Growth SGD","BK1594":"碳中和概念股","002240":"盛新锂能","BK1592":"有色金属","BK1129":"特种化学制品","BK1190":"多种金属与采矿","BK1509":"特斯拉概念股","002460":"赣锋锂业","SG9999003461.SGD":"United Asia Pacific Infrastructure SGD","01772":"赣锋锂业","09696":"天齐锂业"},"translate_title":"[Market Focus] Lithium Carbonate: The Best Long Window Period","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"01772":1.87,"09696":0.9,"002240":1.85,"002460":1.87},"content_text":"摘要2026年1月6日，碳酸锂期货市场延续了近期的强势格局，主力合约LC2605高开高走，增仓放量上行，一举突破前期关键阻力位，收涨停板于137940，市场情绪显著回暖。2026年一季度仍是碳酸锂做多的最佳窗口期，核心逻辑在于“供应滞后+需求刚性+低库存”的三重共振。碳酸锂价格有望继续上行至15万元/吨大关。一供应增量释放滞后短期来看，2026年一季度碳酸锂供应增量有限，成为供需紧平衡的核心支撑。一方面，国内主要矿山及复产项目（如宁德枧下窝项目）增量多集中在3月后及二季度，一季度难以形成有效供应；另一方面，1月份部分老产线进入年度检修，进一步限制供应增量，同时部分企业存在缺矿问题，导致1-2月累库规模低于此前预期。二短期需求刚性支撑强劲从需求节奏来看，传统意义上一季度为终端需求淡季，但2026年一季度因储能再手订单的刚性交付，需求不弱反强；二季度后，随着新能源汽车与储能新招标项目的落地，需求将逐步环比回升；三季度后，磷酸铁锂与电池产能迎来集中释放，若终端需求无明显负反馈，需求端将持续保持强劲。尽管前期市场担忧磷酸铁锂企业减产带来的需求收缩，但据则言最新调研数据，预计1月磷酸铁锂产量环比减量仅6%左右，处于预期下限，需求刚性支撑明显。三低库存和有利的库存结构在目前需求同比增幅42%，但国内碳酸锂库存与去年同期持平，冶炼厂库存则降至有数据统计以来最低，下游库存在10月后明显下降，库存可用天数降至不足10天，贸易商期限商虽有补库，但因套保盘面锁流动性，只能等下游接受高价。四一季度上行确定性强2026年一季度是碳酸锂做多的最佳窗口期，核心逻辑在于“供应滞后+需求刚性+低库存”的三重共振。当前碳酸锂价格已从8万元/吨快速攀升至13万元/吨，且下游未出现明显负反馈，即使磷酸铁锂企业因加工费谈判存在减产计划，也更多是谈判筹码，实际减产幅度有限。同时，产业链各环节库存均处于绝对低位，倒逼产业承接贸易商手中的高价货源，进一步支撑价格上行。从市场情绪与资金面来看，节后交易日碳酸锂期货持续大增仓，多头情绪浓厚；空头方面，上一轮套保盘多已止损，新套保盘因供应释放节奏不明朗而持观望态度，套保压制减弱。叠加新能源汽车一季度销量开门红预期修正，市场利多氛围持续强化，预计一季度碳酸锂价格将轻松突破15万元/吨，且在无新增供应与需求负反馈的情况下，存在进一步上行空间。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2601424988","isCrawlerRequest":true}