阿里巴巴财报季来临：Jefferies看好其AI云业务，维持“买入”评级

AI产业链研究01-08

第四季度已经过了，很快会迎来财报季。今天来看看 Jefferies 今天发布的阿里巴巴 2026 Q3 (自然年 Q4) 的前瞻分析。Jefferies 重申，基于阿里巴巴在 “人工智能 + 云” 及一站式消费平台领域的发展机遇，将其列为 2026 年首选标的。Jefferies 预计，在 2025 年 12 月季度，阿里巴巴的即时零售业务在各项关键指标上均实现稳步推进。针对核心商业零售业务，...

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1620 亿元人民币，市场一致预期为 1680 亿元人民币，Jefferies 此前预期为 1660 亿元人民币。其中，核心商业零售业务营收同比增长 2%，市场一致预期同比增长 6.3%，Jefferies 此前预期为同比增长 6.5%。作出这一判断主要基于两方面因素：一是服务费及相关业务的基数效应；二是近期行业整体商品交易总额增速放缓。据国家统计局数据显示，2025 年 9 月季度行业商品交易总额同比增长 7.5%，10 月、11 月则分别同比增长 4.9%、1.5%。此外，Jefferies 维持阿里云智能集团营收同比增长 35% 的预期不变。对于阿里巴巴国际数字商业集团，Jefferies 预计其亏损将同比收窄，亏损额约为 20 亿元人民币，而 2024 年 12 月季度亏损额为 50 亿元人民币，Jefferies 此前曾预期该板块实现盈亏平衡。综合来看，Jefferies 预计阿里巴巴整体息税摊销前利润约为 275 亿元人民币，市场一致预期为 368 亿元人民币，此前预期为 389 亿元人民币；整体息税摊销前利润率约为 9.6%，市场一致预期为 12.6%，此前预期为 13.3%。这一测算已计入即时零售业务 220 亿元人民币的亏损（与市场预期一致）以及 “其他” 业务板块 85 亿元人民币的亏损，而市场一致预期该板块亏损为 42 亿元人民币，Jefferies 此前预期为 38 亿元人民币。分业务板块来看，Jefferies 预计中国商业零售板块息税摊销前利润达 360 亿元人民币，市场一致预期为 396 亿元人民币，此前预期为 409 亿元人民币；阿里云智能集团 2025 年 12 月季度的息税摊销前利润率与 9 月季度基本持平。财报电话会议核心关注要点本次会议需重点关注以下内容：消费市场情绪最新趋势及行业发展展望未来几个季度核心商业零售业务的发展趋势，以及其营收增速与行业商品交易总额增速的差距近月商品交易总额增长态势及未来季度增长预期即时零售业务最新进展，包括日均订单量、客单价及单位经济效益走势外卖及即时零售业务与传统电商业务的协同效应未来几个季度阿里云营收增长势头及人工智能业务增长动能阿里云利润率变化趋势消费市场情绪及竞争格局的最新动态未来几个季度资本开支走向国际化战略更新及东南亚电商市场竞争格局中国区业务及整体业务的息税摊销前利润走势股东回报相关进展，包括股票回购、股息发放以及非核心资产价值情况估值与","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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