中信证券：政策支持下未来保险资金增量可期成长相对价值风格占优

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智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，保险资金配置股票的规模正在趋势性上升，截至2025Q3已经达到3.6万亿元，占保险资金的比例为10%，预期未来保险资金行为将会越来越影响A股市场风格特征。该行分析了保险资管权益类产品收益与市场风格的历史相关性，发现当两者相关性达到极值时，市场的风格切换即将发生。截至目前，策略显示成长相对价值风格占优，保险资金配置红利低波风格在下降区间，配置科技研发风格在上升...

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href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1390168.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，保险资金配置股票的规模正在趋势性上升，截至2025Q3已经达到3.6万亿元，占保险资金的比例为10%，预期未来保险资金行为将会越来越影响A股市场风格特征。该行分析了保险资管权益类产品收益与市场风格的历史相关性，发现当两者相关性达到极值时，市场的风格切换即将发生。截至目前，策略显示成长相对价值风格占优，保险资金配置红利低波风格在下降区间，配置科技研发风格在上升...</p>\n\n<a 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dominant","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"600030":1.5,"06030":1.5},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，保险资金配置股票的规模正在趋势性上升，截至2025Q3已经达到3.6万亿元，占保险资金的比例为10%，预期未来保险资金行为将会越来越影响A股市场风格特征。该行分析了保险资管权益类产品收益与市场风格的历史相关性，发现当两者相关性达到极值时，市场的风格切换即将发生。截至目前，策略显示成长相对价值风格占优，保险资金配置红利低波风格在下降区间，配置科技研发风格在上升区间，且均未达到历史极值，成长风格或将延续。中信证券主要观点如下：2025年保险增量资金超过6000亿元，政策支持下未来增量可期1)保险资金配置股票的规模呈“先稳后升、加速上行”的特征，截至2025Q3保险资金运用在股票上的余额快速攀升至约3.6万亿元左右的高位，同时配置股票比例上行至10%;2)该行测算保险资金2025年配置股票资产余额增量为6181亿元，考虑A股市值变化后的同比增速为25%;3)2024年下半年以来，政策引导支持险资稳定、持续入市，政策整体呈现系统性、组合式推进特征。股票型保险资管产品数量持续上升，总体偏向价值风格，2025年后风格明显转向成长1)2019年以来，保险资管权益类产品数量扩张趋势明显，产品数量由2019年110只稳步增长至2025年超过260只，期间基本逐年抬升;2)从保险资管产品的历史收益表现来看，险资持仓的风格特征并非恒定，而是随市场环境呈现阶段性切换。红利低波相关性在多数时期保持正向、且在2024年显著增强，显示保险资管产品整体风格更偏防御与高股息低波动特征，而对科技成长与进取风格的敏感度相对偏低或呈负向暴露，但在2025年后有明显变化，说明保险资管产品有转向配置成长和小盘风格的股票。基于风格相关性极值的择时策略1)从历史周期变化角度，保险资金配置A股风格具备极端反转特征，即当保险资管权益类产品收益与市场风格的相关性达到极值时，市场指数风格切换也逐渐开始发生。2)回测结果显示，无论是单一风格(红利或科技)相对中证全指的超额收益，还是红利相对科技的收益，均具有不错的择时效果。从三种择时策略提示时间点来看，2021年提示成长切向价值，2024年1月提示价值切向成长，总体比较准确捕捉到长周期价值成长切换时点。3)截至2025年12月19日，成长相对价值风格占优。保险资金配置红利低波风格在下降区间，保险资金配置科技研发风格在上升区间，均未达到历史极值，成长风格或将延续。风险因素：模型失效;市场预期大幅变化;宏观及产业政策重大变化。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"policyRegulatory","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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中信证券：政策支持下未来保险资金增量可期 成长相对价值风格占优

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中信证券：政策支持下未来保险资金增量可期成长相对价值风格占优