银行行业专题报告：深度|银行四大零售资产的风险分析框架-按揭、信用卡、消费贷与经营贷

中泰证券01-07

核心观点：1、零售贷款四大类资产共同构成了居民负债，四大类资产抵押类型、久期结构、受不同政策的影响等均不相同，本文尝试搭建零售各类资产的风险框架，展望下阶段对银行经营的影响。2、综合来看，压力测试下26E 按揭、信用卡、消费贷、经营贷不良率分别较25E 提升11、12、20、18bp，不良额增幅可控，在对公资产质量持续优化的背景下，银行大盘依然稳健。3、零售资产风险可控，政策预计近期保持定力。零售...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2601050868?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2026-01-07 00:00","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","id":"2601050868","market":"hk","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"银行行业专题报告：深度|银行四大零售资产的风险分析框架-按揭、信用卡、消费贷与经营贷","media":"中泰证券","content":"<div>\n<p>核心观点：1、零售贷款四大类资产共同构成了居民负债，四大类资产抵押类型、久期结构、受不同政策的影响等均不相同，本文尝试搭建零售各类资产的风险框架，展望下阶段对银行经营的影响。2、综合来看，压力测试下26E 按揭、信用卡、消费贷、经营贷不良率分别较25E 提升11、12、20、18bp，不良额增幅可控，在对公资产质量持续优化的背景下，银行大盘依然稳健。3、零售资产风险可控，政策预计近期保持定力。零售...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260107192012a6fe83ad&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>银行行业专题报告：深度|银行四大零售资产的风险分析框架-按揭、信用卡、消费贷与经营贷</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n银行行业专题报告：深度|银行四大零售资产的风险分析框架-按揭、信用卡、消费贷与经营贷\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-07 00:00 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260107192012a6fe83ad&s=b><strong>中泰证券</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>核心观点：1、零售贷款四大类资产共同构成了居民负债，四大类资产抵押类型、久期结构、受不同政策的影响等均不相同，本文尝试搭建零售各类资产的风险框架，展望下阶段对银行经营的影响。2、综合来看，压力测试下26E 按揭、信用卡、消费贷、经营贷不良率分别较25E 提升11、12、20、18bp，不良额增幅可控，在对公资产质量持续优化的背景下，银行大盘依然稳健。3、零售资产风险可控，政策预计近期保持定力。零售...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260107192012a6fe83ad&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0516423091.SGD","symbol_name":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA FOCUS EQUITIES \"I\" (SGD) ACC","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260107192012a6fe83ad&s=b","article_id":"2601050868","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260107192012a6fe83ad&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, .wx-sou","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2601050868","pubTimestamp":1767715200,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"tencent","name":"腾讯"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"核心观点：1、零售贷款四大类资产共同构成了居民负债，四大类资产抵押类型、久期结构、受不同政策的影响等均不相同，本文尝试搭建零售各类资产的风险框架，展望下阶段对银行经营的影响。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"LU0516423091.SGD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA FOCUS EQUITIES \"I\" (SGD) ACC","LU1719994722.HKD":"NINETY ONE GSF ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2476274308.USD":"ALLIANZ CHINA FUTURE TECHNOLOGIES \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU1105468828.SGD":"Allianz Total Return Asian Equity AM DIS H2-SGD","LU0589944569.HKD":"ALLIANZ EMERGING ASIA EQUITY \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU1211504680.USD":"ALLIANZ HIGH DIVIDEND ASIA PACIFIC EQUITY \"AM\" (USD) INC","BK1610":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU1282649067.USD":"ALLIANZ ASIAN MULTI INCOME PLUS \"AMG\" (USD) INC A","LU0648948544.HKD":"ALLIANZ ASIAN MULTI INCOME PLUS \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU0348814723.USD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC  NC","LU1242518857.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","IE00B5MMRT66.SGD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1282648689.USD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU1675838814.USD":"AB SICAV I - EMERGING MARKETS LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (USD) INC","LU1807302812.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV ALL CHINA \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0502904849.HKD":"FIDELITY FUNDS  CHINA INNOVATION \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1152091168.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - CHINA OPPORTUNITY (USD) \"PM\" INC","LU0516422952.EUR":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA FOCUS EQUITIES \"I\" (EUR) ACC","LU1961090484.USD":"ALLIANZ ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00BZ08YR35.GBP":"GUINNESS BEST OF CHINA \"C\" (GBP) ACC","03143":"华夏香港银行股","LU0117841782.USD":"JPM GREATER CHINA \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0823426480.USD":"法巴中国股票经典Dis","LU2242644610.SGD":"Fidelity China Innovation A-ACC-SGD","LU0593848301.USD":"未来资产亚洲卓越消费股票基金A","LU0823426308.USD":"法巴中国股票基金","IE00B29SXG58.USD":"FSSA CHINA FOCUS \"I\" (USD) ACC","03968":"招商银行","LU0348735423.USD":"ALLIANZ HONG KONG EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1152091754.HKD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - CHINA OPPORTUNITY (USD) \"PM\" (HKD) INC","LU1282649141.HKD":"ALLIANZ ASIAN MULTI INCOME PLUS \"AMG\" (HKD) INC","LU0314109678.HKD":"MANULIFE GF DRAGON GROWTH \"AA\" (HKD) INC","LU0456846285.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Greater China A (acc) SGD","LU1251922891.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0359202008.SGD":"Blackrock China Fund A2 SGD-H","LU0979878070.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0516422366.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Asia Focus Equities A Acc SGD","LU1115378108.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Global Emerging Markets Dynamic AS SGD","LU0455707207.USD":"FIDELITY FUNDS  CHINA INNOVATION \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1880383440.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS CHINA EQUITY \"A2\" (USD) INC","LU1023057109.AUD":"BGF CHINA \"A2\" (AUDHDG) ACC","SG9999002463.SGD":"LionGlobal China Growth SGD","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0348805143.USD":"ALLIANZ ENHANCED ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1366334578.USD":"ALLSPRING EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0572944931.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 SGD","IE00B543WZ88.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B031HY20.USD":"FSSA CHINA GROWTH \"I\" (USD) INC","LU0634319403.HKD":"ALLIANZ HONG KONG EQUITY \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU0231483743.USD":"abrdn SICAV I - ALL CHINA SUSTAINABLE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC"},"translate_title":"Special report on the banking industry: In-depth | Risk analysis framework for the four major retail assets of banks-mortgages, credit cards, consumer loans and business loans","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"03968":0.9,"03143":0.6},"content_text":"核心观点：1、零售贷款四大类资产共同构成了居民负债，四大类资产抵押类型、久期结构、受不同政策的影响等均不相同，本文尝试搭建零售各类资产的风险框架，展望下阶段对银行经营的影响。2、综合来看，压力测试下26E 按揭、信用卡、消费贷、经营贷不良率分别较25E 提升11、12、20、18bp，不良额增幅可控，在对公资产质量持续优化的背景下，银行大盘依然稳健。3、零售资产风险可控，政策预计近期保持定力。零售风险分析框架：抵押类型+久期结构+政策影响。1、零售整体风险现状：测算1H25上市银行零售贷款不良率1.27%，超过对公的1.26%，但不良率升幅趋于稳定。存量不良中对公：零售=63:37，其中经营贷、按揭存量不良、新增不良占比高,信用卡新增不良额规模小。2、零售资产四类资产分析框架不同：四大类资产相互交织，共同组成居民资产负债表中的“负债”端；四大类资产抵押类型、久期结构、受不同政策的影响等均不相同，本文尝试搭建零售各类资产的风险框架，展望下阶段对银行经营的影响。消费贷款：1、消费贷与消费的关系梳理：除特殊政策影响外，消费贷景气度与宏观消费景气度趋势基本一致，两段背离期分别出现在严格的房产限购、以及严格的网贷监管周期。2、消费信贷（剔除信用卡、房贷）市场结构：上市银行超半壁江山，非上市银行占比17%，其他玩家占31%。3、消费信贷风险逻辑：风控为辅，利率对客群分层，利率最终决定风险表现，风险定价可粗略分为四层，10%以内，10-18%，18%-24%，24%-36%，利率越高，风险越高。4、消费信贷风险资产规模测算：测算24%-36%的“高风险资产”占消费贷款的4.4%，商业银行表内高风险消费贷占商业银行消费贷的0.6%，上市银行未参与。5、消费信贷风险传导影响测算：2025 年10 月以来监管趋严，高定价网贷受限，若高风险资产向较优客群传导，压力测试下26E 消费贷不良率较25E 上升20bp 至1.89%。按揭贷款：基于还款意愿、还款能力和国际比较的测算。1、按揭风险来源：“负现金流”（收入与失业问题）是按揭风险的主要来源，据统计1.2%的受访者月收入低于按揭月供，该比例在过去几年中总体稳定；随着房价继续下跌，三四线LTV 过度上升形成的“负资产”将在按揭风险来源中边际上升，但并不意味着LTV 高一定会暴露不良，预计当前高LTV 部分占总按揭余额的2.9%；随着“保交房”的推进，烂尾所带来的问题预计将边际缓和。2、国际比较：大部分国家和地区的按揭贷款不良率基本维持在2%以内。3、对银行业影响：可控。一方面当前行业超额拨备可充分覆盖按揭不良的额外暴露部分；另一方面，2026 年起利息收入拉动营收改善，同样为适当多提拨备提供了空间。具体来看，假设最终按揭不良率暴露至2%，分6 年暴露，则2025E、2026E按揭贷款不良率分别为0.85%和0.96%。经营贷款：“高风险”资产已暴露1/3，后续风险暴露趋势有望趋缓。1、测算21 年末全市场存量高风险经营贷大约2 万亿。根据我们在2024 年9 月发布的《专题测算|上市银行的个人经营贷：高风险占比低》推理和测算：全国二手房房价在21 年下半年达高点， 21 年及以后经营贷与楼市挂钩度更大，测算21 年全市场“高风险”经营贷或超2 万亿。2、24-25 两年预计是风险暴露高峰，测算2024 以及1H25 高风险资产已暴露近1/3。经营贷借款周期短，三年还本居多，24-25 年是还本高峰年、同时也是风险暴露高峰年，测算2024 年以及2025 年上半年个人经营贷已暴露不良3384 亿，占高风险资产的31%。3、压力测试：1H25 数据显示不良率、不良额升幅均趋缓。假设风险暴露未减缓，压力测试下26E 经营贷不良率较25E 上升18bp 至1.96%。信用卡：不良暴露早，当前不良额增量最小，不是当前主要压力。1、不良暴露早：信用卡是四大类零售资产中风险最早暴露的资产，一直以来不良率持续维持在零售资产中相对较高的位置， 1H25 信用卡不良率2.44%。2、处置早，不良额增量显著下降：1H25 信用卡不良额占比上市银行总不良额8.6%，小于按揭和经营贷。从不良额暴露速度来看，2025 上半年信用卡不良净增额为39.3 亿（四大类资产中最少），同比2024上半年下降近50%，环比2024 年下半年则大幅下降近70%。可见信用卡经历多年的风险暴露和风险处置，暴露速度在1H25 出现大幅下降。3、压力测试：假设2025 下半年、2026 上下半年净增不良额均在1H25 基础上增加20%，则测算25E 不良率2.44%（与1H25 持平），26E 不良率2.56%，相较25E 提升12bp。投资建议：银行股两条投资主线：一是拥有区域优势、确定性强的城农商行，区域包括江苏、上海、成渝、山东和福建等（详见我们区域经济系列深度研究），重点推荐江苏银行、齐鲁银行、杭州银行、渝农商行、南京、沪农和上海等区域银行。二是高股息稳健的逻辑，重点推荐大型银行：六大行（如农行、建行和工行）；以及股份行中招商、兴业和中信等。风险提示：经济下滑超预期；研报信息更新不及时；政策落地不及预期","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2601050868","isCrawlerRequest":true}