开年继续狂飙！新华保险、中国太保盘中创历史新高，2026年保险股能否延续升势？

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图片来源：界面图库界面新闻记者 |吕文琦2025年，保险板块在A股市场中走出一轮修复行情，表现颇为亮眼。进入2026年，板块开市即现“开门红”，回暖趋势延续。1月6日，A股保险股再次收获大涨。其中新华保险（601336.SH）和中国太保（601601.SH）盘中分别创76.05元/股和45.35元/股的历史新高；中国平安（601318.SH）涨逾6%，股价创五年来新高。截至收盘，新华保险涨...

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New China Life Insurance and China Pacific Insurance hit record highs during the session. Can insurance stocks continue their upward trend in 2026?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"82318":0.6,"601318":0.6,"PAImain":0.6,"02318":0.9,"01336":1.5,"HPAD.SI":0.6,"PNGAY":0.6,"03145":0.6,"02601":1.5},"content_text":"图片来源：界面图库界面新闻记者 |吕文琦2025年，保险板块在A股市场中走出一轮修复行情，表现颇为亮眼。进入2026年，板块开市即现“开门红”，回暖趋势延续。1月6日，A股保险股再次收获大涨。其中新华保险（601336.SH）和中国太保（601601.SH）盘中分别创76.05元/股和45.35元/股的历史新高；中国平安（601318.SH）涨逾6%，股价创五年来新高。截至收盘，新华保险涨8.87%，领跑保险板块；中国太保涨超7%，中国人寿涨逾6%，中国平安和中国人保（601319.SH）涨超5%。分析人士认为，本轮保险股的突出表现，是多因素共同作用的结果。南开大学金融发展研究院院长田利辉向界面新闻表示，1月5日保险板块的走强，是政策预期、基本面改善与市场风格切换三者形成“合力” 的集中体现。其核心逻辑在于，保险行业正站在一个 “戴维斯双击” （ 公司盈利增长和估值提升共同推动股价乘数上涨 ）的潜在起点上。“从政策维度看，近期监管导向发生了从‘严格约束’到‘赋能发展’的范式性转变。调降保险公司权益投资风险因子、拉长考核周期等举措，并非简单的技术调整，而是旨在激活保险资金作为‘耐心资本’和‘长期资本’的战略功能。这从根本上解除了市场对险资投资能力的束缚预期，是估值修复的首要前提。”田利辉指出。从基本面维度看，田利辉认为，行业正迎来罕见的 “负债端”与“资产端”同步改善的共振窗口。负债端，寿险的“报行合一”政策正重塑行业生态，遏制了恶性价格竞争，新业务价值增长通道更为清晰；而居民储蓄需求的结构性变化，为保费增长提供了持续动力。国家金融监督管理总局数据显示，2025年前11个月，保险业总计实现保费收入57629亿元，同比增长7.6%。其中，人身险公司实现保费收入41472亿元，同比增长9.1%；财险公司实现保费收入16157亿元，同比增长3.9%。某券商非银分析师向界面新闻预计，寿险保费增速很大程度来自居民“存款搬家”。假设2026年“存款搬家”的节奏与2025年大体一致，人身险保费规模有望在2026年达到约4.8万亿元，同比增速约为10%。从中长期养老需求的角度来看，该分析师认为，随着我国养老资产储备比例逐步向美国等成熟市场靠拢，保险产品在养老金融体系中的作用将不断凸显。相比其他金融产品，保险兼具刚性兑付属性和相对稳健的收益特征，同时具备普惠性和长期性优势，更符合当前金融体系高质量发展的方向，储蓄型保险发展空间依然广阔。资产端上，该分析师认为，基于新增保费规模测算，预计2026年保险资金新增配置A股的规模约为3000亿至7700亿元。其指出，在低利率环境和监管边际改善背景下，保险资金在坚持资产负债匹配原则的同时，增配权益资产的趋势有望延续，为市场带来中长期增量资金。在金融领域各子板块中，保险板块2025年的表现也明显跑赢银行和券商板块。展望2026年，保险板块是否还是好的投资标的？田利辉告诉界面新闻，相较银行和券商，保险股的性价比体现在“赔率”与“概率”的平衡上。相比银行，保险正处于自身基本面修复阶段，负债端改善与资产端弹性赋予其更高的业绩弹性；相比券商，保险的增长更多来自行业改革和长期需求释放，对短期市场成交的依赖度较低，确定性更强。田利辉表示，保险板块在当前阶段兼具一定防御属性与向上弹性，在金融子板块中呈现出攻守兼备的配置特征，风险收益比较为突出。前述分析师向界面新闻表示，在慢牛市场预期下，保险行业利差改善的空间有望进一步打开，同时由于估值对资产端变化较为敏感，行业估值存在多重受益的可能。他指出，若新单保费增速延续较好表现，利差修复进程有望加快，从而强化盈利能力改善的逻辑，并推动行业估值持续修复。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"2","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2601009127","isCrawlerRequest":true}