谷歌430万颗TPU暴击CUDA护城河！Meta“割肉”助攻

新智元01-05

新智元报道编辑：元宇【新智元导读】Meta腾出CoWoS排产“让路”，加上台积电的积极扩产，2026年谷歌把TPU的“算力水龙头”拧到最大，预期产能飙升至430万颗，猛攻英伟达CUDA护城河。430万颗！谷歌2026年的TPU最新产能数据曝光。该数据来自Global Semi Research（全球半导体研究）最新的一项独立研究。该项研究将谷歌2026年的TPU产能数据更新如下：2026年TPU总...

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Meta \"cut flesh\" assists","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOGL":1.96,"META":0.9,"GOOG":0.9,"USJW.SI":0.6},"content_text":"新智元报道编辑：元宇【新智元导读】Meta腾出CoWoS排产“让路”，加上台积电的积极扩产，2026年谷歌把TPU的“算力水龙头”拧到最大，预期产能飙升至430万颗，猛攻英伟达CUDA护城河。430万颗！谷歌2026年的TPU最新产能数据曝光。该数据来自Global Semi Research（全球半导体研究）最新的一项独立研究。该项研究将谷歌2026年的TPU产能数据更新如下：2026年TPU总产能将达到430万颗；按型号拆分V6为15万颗，V7为135万颗，V8AX为240万颗，V8X为40万颗。其中，V8AX和V8X总计280万颗，占比约65%。这表明谷歌在产能布局上，将优先保障新一代TPU（可能用于Gemini模型或云服务）的产能，而V6/V7为库存或低端市场，可能用于过渡或特定应用。该研究指出，谷歌TPU产能原本仅略高于300万颗，此次增长到430万颗主要来自两大因素：第一，Meta下调了自研芯片产量，并将释放出来的CoWoS产能转向TPU制造；Meta也希望通过此举锁定/确保TPU供应；第二，台积电扩充CoWoS产能，新增产能预计将于2026年8月投产。这430万颗TPU芯片，395万颗（92%）由台积电代工，其余35万颗（8%）可能由日月光（ASE）外包。制造商分布，突出供应链依赖台积电。台积电是先进封装（CoWoS）的关键供应商，由此也暴露出谷歌TPU交付仍面临先进封装产能短缺的风险。谷歌的TPU产能从原本的略超300万颗大幅上调至430万颗（增长了43.33%），也显示出它的雄心：不仅通过自研TPU降低成本（据分析，每FLOP成本比英伟达GB200/300低20-50%），还要挑战英伟达在AI芯片市场的霸主地位。虽然谷歌TPU的需求强劲，如Anthropic等客户兴趣高涨，但受制于CoWoS封装、内存供应短缺、英伟达竞争等因素，业界对其2026年TPU产量的各种预测通常低于430万颗。Meta“割肉”助攻先进封装（以CoWoS为代表）是AI加速器交付链条中的关键环节。它虽然不是芯片产能，却是其“出货闸门”，也是卡住TPU供应的最后一道关口：先进封装/集成决定了芯片最终能不能变成可用的加速卡/模块。黄仁勋曾表示，近年来先进封装产能虽在快速扩张（两年内显著放大），但仍是制约项。所以，一旦Meta这样的大客户把原本锁定的CoWoS排产转移出来，将直接影响谷歌TPU的可交付数量。当然，这也可能带有一点“供应锁定”的意味：把资源转过去，等于把未来TPU的交付也一起锁住。据路透社援引知情人士称，去年8月，Meta与谷歌云达成了一项为期6年、价值超过100亿美元的云计算协议，用于支撑其AI基础设施。去年11月，Meta与谷歌洽谈，计划2027年起在自己的数据中心使用谷歌的TPU，并可能最早在2026年通过谷歌云租用TPU算力。与此同时，谷歌也在进行一个名为“TorchTPU”的内部项目，目标是让TPU更好兼容PyTorch，而Meta正是PyTorch的主要支持者。这一系列的交易与合作所透露的信息不仅是TPU采购，也预示着两家将在AI基建层面更紧密合作，也使得Meta的CoWoS排产转移与谷歌TPU交付量上调二者的关联顺理成章。据路透社报道，Meta自去年3月已经开始测试其首款自主研发的AI训练芯片，并计划在测试顺利后扩大规模。开发自研芯片是Meta长期计划的一部分，旨在降低其庞大的基础设施成本，并减少对英伟达等外部芯片供应商的依赖。从某种意义上说，Meta自研芯片阵线的收缩与“让路”，反倒成全了谷歌TPU的扩产计划。台积电扩充产能在AI芯片“强需求、强扩产”的周期中，面对客户不断追加和锁定其对于先进芯片的产能需求，台积电也一直在持续加码后端产线（CoWoS）建设以缩小缺口。台积电曾在2025Q1财报电话会中提到：由于客户强需求，将“努力在2025年把CoWoS产能翻倍”。台积电董事长魏哲家也在2025Q2财报电话会上表示，当前以及2026年都在努力缩小供需缺口，并通过在后端建设许多新设施来增加CoWoS产能以支持客户。据TrendForce报道，行业预估台积电计划把CoWoS月产能从7.5–8万片/月，拉升至2026年末12–13万片/月。所以，430万颗TPU不只是“产能数字”，更像一张2026年的“算力通行证”。随着谷歌TPU产量的快速增加，Anthropic、Meta、Safe Superintelligence（SSI）、xAI、OpenAI等TPU客户的名单也在不断扩大，预示着这些AI巨头们为了摆脱过于依赖单一供应商的风险，开始联手重塑AI算力格局。参考资料：https://substack.com/@globalsemiresearch/note/c-195015090?utm_source=notes-share-action&r=4k4uta秒追ASI⭐点赞、转发、在看一键三连⭐点亮星标，锁定新智元极速推送！","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"2","news_tag":"corporation","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":3,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2601003744","isCrawlerRequest":true}