利空！马斯克，突传重磅！

券商中国01-02

特斯拉突然传来利空信号。　　据华尔街最新预测数据，预计特斯拉2025年第四季度交付约44.09万辆汽车，同比下降11%，特斯拉交付量将连续两年遭遇下滑。另据彭博汇编的数据，华尔街分析师对特斯拉2026年的交付预期从超300万辆大幅下调至约180万辆。　　另外，马斯克旗下美国太空探索技术公司（SpaceX）也有重磅动作。北京时间1月2日，SpaceX宣布，计划在2026年将所有运行高度约550...

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Musk, sudden heavy pass!","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TSYW.SI":0.6,"UFO":0.6,"TSLA":1.97},"content_text":"特斯拉突然传来利空信号。\n　　据华尔街最新预测数据，预计特斯拉2025年第四季度交付约44.09万辆汽车，同比下降11%，特斯拉交付量将连续两年遭遇下滑。另据彭博汇编的数据，华尔街分析师对特斯拉2026年的交付预期从超300万辆大幅下调至约180万辆。\n　　另外，马斯克旗下美国太空探索技术公司（SpaceX）也有重磅动作。北京时间1月2日，SpaceX宣布，计划在2026年将所有运行高度约550公里的卫星降至约480公里，降轨卫星数量约4400颗。\n　　大幅下调\n　　美东时间1月2日，特斯拉将公布2025年第四季度交付量数据。据彭博社数据，预计特斯拉第四季度交付约44.09万辆汽车，同比下降11%。这意味着，特斯拉2025年下半年销量将低于2024年同期水平。\n　　另据特斯拉发布的分析师预测汇总数据，其销量预期更为悲观，预期特斯拉2025年第四季度交付量为422850辆，同比下降15%。\n　　2025年全年交付量方面，该份数据预计为164.08万辆，较2024年的178.9万辆下滑近8%。\n　　若该预测成真，特斯拉将迎来连续第二年年度交付量下滑，且降幅显著扩大。2024年，特斯拉共计交付178.92万辆，同比微降1.07%，这是十余年来特斯拉年度汽车交付量的首次下降。\n　　对此，特斯拉明确表示，“不认可分析师的任何信息、建议或结论”，仅客观呈现汇总数据。\n　　有分析指出，特斯拉2025年第四季度销量疲软主要归因于美国联邦电动车税收抵免政策于9月到期，该政策此前可为购车者提供最高7500美元的优惠。抵免截止前的抢购潮推动第三季度销量激增，但也透支了第四季度需求。\n　　另外，根据彭博汇编的数据，华尔街分析师对特斯拉2026年的交付预期已从超300万辆大幅下调至约180万辆。\n　　有分析师指出，目前投资者将关注的焦点放在特斯拉未来5至15年的发展潜力上，一定程度上忽视了短期的财务波动。但随着美国联邦电动车税收抵免取消、全球市场竞争加剧以及欧洲监管审批受阻等不利因素显现，这一策略面临考验。\n　　股价方面，截至2025年12月31日收盘，特斯拉股价已连续第六个交易日录得下跌，当日跌超1%，报449.72美元/股。这意味着特斯拉股价以“六连跌”收官，累计回撤约8%，但全年仍上涨约11%。目前特斯拉的市盈率接近300倍，这对其实现自动驾驶承诺的时间和规模造成了巨大压力。\n　　SpaceX突然宣布\n　　北京时间1月2日，SpaceX宣布，将降低数千颗“星链”（Starlink）卫星的轨道高度，以降低碰撞风险。\n　　“星链”工程副总裁迈克尔·尼科尔斯表示，公司正“启动卫星星座重大重组计划”，将所有目前运行在约550公里（342英里）高度的卫星，降低至约480公里（298英里）轨道。此举旨在把卫星转移到更不拥挤的轨道层，降低碰撞风险，并能在卫星发生异常或失效时，让卫星更快地脱离轨道、进入大气层烧毁，从而减少太空垃圾的产生。\n　　据尼科尔斯透露，今年内约有4400颗星链卫星将参与此次轨道高度下调。\n　　除了为卫星运行创造一个相对更安全、更可控的空间，尼科尔斯指出，此次调整还与太阳活动周期密切相关。太阳活动大约以11年为一个周期，活动强弱会直接影响地球高层大气的密度。下一个太阳活动极小期预计出现在2030年初，随着太阳活动极小期的临近，高层大气密度将降低，这意味着卫星在相同高度下的自然轨道衰减时间将延长。通过降低轨道高度，可在太阳活动极小期，将原本可能长达四年以上的轨道衰减时间，缩短至数月，轨道衰减速率提升超过80%。\n　　此外，降低卫星轨道高度理论上还能降低延迟，但由于并非所有延迟都源于卫星距离，70公里轨道高度变化的延迟改善非常有限。\n　　SpaceX此前确认其一颗星链卫星发生异常，可能源于内部小型爆炸，导致推进剂储罐泄漏，半长轴快速衰减约4公里（2.5英里），并释放出碎片。\n　　从整体数据来看，低地球轨道正变得前所未有地拥挤。2025年，SpaceX通过121次发射任务共部署了超过3000颗卫星，几乎平均每三天就有一颗新卫星升空。根据世界经济论坛2024年的报告，未来十年内，低轨道地球卫星数量预计还将增长190%。\n　　据CCTV国际时讯，当地时间12月29日，中国代表在低轨道地球卫星问题安理会阿里亚模式会议上发言时表示，个别国家的商业卫星星座肆意扩张，缺乏有效监管，带来显著安全挑战。以马斯克公司旗下的“星链”项目为例，“星链”在轨卫星超1万颗，曾两次迫近中国空间站致紧急避碰。近期，一颗卫星解体产生100多枚碎片，严重威胁缺乏控轨能力的发展中国家航天器。\n　　责编：战术恒\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：王珂","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-2","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2600616050","isCrawlerRequest":true}