1000亿补贴换1亿订单流量值不值？外卖平台抢的不是订单，是下一个十年

蓝鲸财经01-04

文｜摩根商研所最近，外卖行业展开了“抢骑手”大战。在北京部分站点，美团针对来自饿了么、京东且月单量大于720单的活跃骑手，提供2888元的一次性转会奖励。紧随其后，淘宝闪购针对12月15—21日在京东、美团、顺丰等平台单量超140单、加入淘宝闪购优选并连续接单四周的骑手，提供3000元补贴，推荐人额外获1000元奖励。京东虽然没有跟着一起“抢人”，却在防止骑手跳槽方面下足了功夫。12月，最新一批...

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href=https://www.lanjinger.com/d/1767190908491931495><strong>蓝鲸财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>文｜摩根商研所最近，外卖行业展开了“抢骑手”大战。在北京部分站点，美团针对来自饿了么、京东且月单量大于720单的活跃骑手，提供2888元的一次性转会奖励。紧随其后，淘宝闪购针对12月15—21日在京东、美团、顺丰等平台单量超140单、加入淘宝闪购优选并连续接单四周的骑手，提供3000元补贴，推荐人额外获1000元奖励。京东虽然没有跟着一起“抢人”，却在防止骑手跳槽方面下足了功夫。12月，最新一批...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.lanjinger.com/d/1767190908491931495\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0345775950.USD","symbol_name":"NINETY ONE GSF ASIAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) 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What the food delivery platform grabs is not orders, but the next decade","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"89618":0.6,"89988":0.6,"08496":0.69,"JD":1.86,"09988":1.88,"BABA":1.88,"HBBD.SI":0.6,"ALBmain":0.6,"09618":1.86,"MPNGY":1.96,"METmain":0.6,"HMTD.SI":0.6,"03690":1.96},"content_text":"文｜摩根商研所最近，外卖行业展开了“抢骑手”大战。在北京部分站点，美团针对来自饿了么、京东且月单量大于720单的活跃骑手，提供2888元的一次性转会奖励。紧随其后，淘宝闪购针对12月15—21日在京东、美团、顺丰等平台单量超140单、加入淘宝闪购优选并连续接单四周的骑手，提供3000元补贴，推荐人额外获1000元奖励。京东虽然没有跟着一起“抢人”，却在防止骑手跳槽方面下足了功夫。12月，最新一批京东全职骑手入住位于北京通州区的首个“京东小哥之家”，京东宣布未来5年将投入220亿元，提供1.5万套“小哥之家”。短期来看，争夺骑手是应对年底订单高峰与运力波动的必要之举。从长远看，这可能仍然是外卖巨头砸钱抢市场的延伸，今年的“转会”补贴力度明显比往年要大。今年的外卖大战，三巨头不惜代价，累计投入资金超过了1000亿。如今到了年底，仍在相互较劲。外卖的价值究竟有多大？一、千亿补贴，没有砸出新故事天量资金投入外卖战场，巨头们得到了什么呢？利润没有增加。阿里和京东三季度归属于普通股股东净利润分别同比下降52%和55%，美团则录得上市以来最大亏损，三季度调整后净亏损达160亿元。营销费用也没有减少。阿里、京东、美团三季度营销开支分别同比增长106%、110%和91%，外卖订单虽然在增长，买流量的钱却一分也不能少。即时零售的梦想依旧遥远。美团日订单总量从8000万涨到1.2亿的过程中，非餐饮品类日订单增长不到200万。淘宝闪购和饿了么订单总量超过8000万时，非餐饮品类为1300万。京东则从未公布过餐饮之外的订单数量。电商收入的增速也几乎原地踏步。阿里将闪购并入中国电商板块，电商收入整体增速大约9%。京东二季度零售增速上升到20%，第三季度又回落到11.4%。如果非要说外卖大战真的带来了什么，答案可能是流量。京东外卖新用户转化率接近50%，带动季度活跃用户数和购物频次同比增长40%以上。天猫双11期间，淘宝App实现消费者同比双位数增长。美团APP活跃用户数也增长超过20%。整个外卖大战就像一场大型营销，用近千亿的补贴，换来了增加的1亿单左右外卖流量。外卖的价值何在，是否值得花费这么大代价去争夺？巨头们最初对外面流量的期望是为零售业务输血。他们的基本依据是高频带低频：用高频刚需的外卖，带动低频非刚需的即时零售和主站电商等其他业务。目前来看，外卖似乎并没有完成预期任务。阿里和京东的电商收入增速并没有发生质变，美团的非餐饮订单数量与外卖大战前也相差不多。中信证券的测算数据显示，在双11期间，由闪购业务引入的新用户，其产生的电商订单金额仅约占同期平台总GMV的1%，来得人虽然多了，但愿意花钱的似乎很少。逻辑上也很好理解：外卖平台本质上是效率工具，吃饭的需求必须即时满足，囤货的欲望却可以等等再说，指望用户在点餐时顺手网购，可能并不是一个靠谱的想法。外卖流量真正被验证过的价值，可能还是在本地生活领域。2018年3月，美团的酒店预订间夜量首次超过携程、去哪儿、同程艺龙总和，这一年，美团酒店订单中90%的用户都来源于外卖。盯上本地生活这块肥肉的玩家很多，但美团真正重视的，似乎只有那些打算自己做外卖的选手。2022年上半年，美团曾针对抖音本地生活业务做过一轮调研。尽管当时的流量巨头已经獠牙初现，但美团的结论却是“威胁范围可控”。直到抖音尝试切入外卖市场后，美团才真正重视起来，一边上线直播功能，一边推出类似抖音的“团购配送”。抖音试水外卖的尝试最终并不成功，抖音外卖于2024年7月整体迁移至抖店到家平台，不再以独立形式运营。直到今天，抖音本地生活GTV虽然已经达到8000亿，接近美团的万亿级别，但抖音推送式团购核销率仅为50%—60%，美团搜索订单的核销率则在90%以上。抖音到店业务突飞猛进可能是因为基数足够大：抖音日活超过7亿，美团只有1亿。同样以内容生态试图切入本地生活赛道的小红书，在试水不到100天后，宣布其本地生活会员产品“小红卡”将于2026年1月1日起暂停试运营。内容生态对本地生活业务的导流效果显然不如外卖。所以我们看到外卖大战初见成效之后，京东和阿里便相继进军本地生活，这是外卖业务成熟后的必然路径，也是已经被美团验证过的一个路径。二、“高频带低频”非一日之功，生态才是壁垒“高频到低频”大致可以分为两种模式。一种是场景外延。比如携程，高频的机票业务负责引流，低频的酒店业务负责挣钱。订机票和订酒店在场景上是深度关联的，二者的需求很多情况下具备同时性，用户订机票的同时，顺手就可以把酒店预订了。美团的外卖业务带动到店餐饮，也是一种场景外延。外卖用户通过线上曝光，认识了某个线下店，或被算法推荐到线下店，由此产生到店需求。只是到店和外卖只是需求互补，并没有机票和酒店那样的强同步性。另一种是品类外延。比如美团的餐饮业务和电影票、酒店、医美等业务之间并不存在场景上的强相关，也没有必然的因果。但它们的共同点是都属于生活消费，都会发生信息流和现金流交易。品类外延的特点是间接性，用户先对平台产生信任，进而选择在上面进行其他生活消费。就像美团在酒旅业务上的突破，靠的是整个本地生活生态，而不是单一的外卖业务。虽然外卖业务是整个生态的基础，但发挥作用的并不是只有外卖这一项。就像要建一座漂亮的房子首先要打地基，地基虽然很重要，但它本身并不能吸引来客。比如京东在外卖声势最高的6月份，选择进军酒旅业务。“最高三年免佣金”的政策在最初引起舆论狂欢，短短两天时间，近5万家酒店申请入驻京东酒旅。但是狂欢过后，京东酒旅的声量却渐趋平静。截至目前，京东酒旅的订单规模，用户数据等核心信息都未公布。京东财报中也没有对酒旅业务进行单独列项，而是将其与外卖、达达、京喜等业务合并为新业务。2025年第三季度，京东新业务板块亏损达到 157 亿，环比上季度增多约 10 亿。以结果而论，京东酒旅并没有吃到京东外卖的流量红利，原因就是单一的外卖业务并不能直接带动酒旅业务增长，而彼时京东并不具备“本地生活平台”的用户心智。从这个角度讲，京东挑战携程，与其以外卖为基础，不如先去抢携程的机票业务，当然前提是抢得过。互联网发展到今天，能渗透的需求基本充分渗透了，靠场景外延扩张业务的机会已经很少了。所以巨头们都在致力于先构建生态，再以生态为基础进行品类外延。比如阿里的“大消费平台”战略，也是一种生态战略，目的是令用户可以在这个生态中满足包括吃喝玩乐衣食住行一切需求。如果说美团构建的是一个本地生活服务生态，阿里的“大消费”平台就是一个线上线下一体的消费生态。一旦用户养成遇事不决先找阿里的习惯，后者将得到一座极高的商业壁垒。以生态为基础的扩张有两个特点，一是需要时间，活跃度可以用钱砸出来，占领用户心智却需要经年累月地积累。就像外卖大战开打之前，美团日订单总量大约8000万，非餐饮订单数量1800万。后来美团用补贴将日订单量砸到了1.2亿，但非餐饮品类订单却迟迟突破不了2000万。二是很难人为预测，就像美团在最初布局即时零售时，可能只是将其当作普通板块，但这个板块后来却意外成长为具有战略意义的增长引擎。所以对巨头而言，只有抢不到的流量，没有没用的流量。外卖能不能在短期内与电商产生协同可能并不重要，重要的是要占住这个流量入口，说不定将来哪一天就会发挥意想不到的作用。这可能也是为什么惨烈的外卖大战刚刚过去，淘宝闪购和美团又开始不遗余力地争夺骑手。二者争夺的是外卖，却也不只是外卖。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.43.1","shortVersion":"4.43.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2600042540","isCrawlerRequest":true}