电子行业研究：AI强需拉动，26Q1存储芯片价格有望继续大涨

国金证券01-04

（以下内容从国金证券《电子行业研究：AI强需拉动，26Q1存储芯片价格有望继续大涨》研报附件原文摘录）电子周观点：AI强需拉动，26Q1存储芯片价格有望继续大涨。Google、Meta、微软及亚马逊AWS等北美四大云厂（CSP）持续扩大AI基础建设投资，2026年总投资金额有望达到6000亿美元（约合4.2万亿元人民币）历史新高规模。在AI强劲需求带动下，2025年存储芯片价格大涨，其中...

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RDIMM内存价格预计将上涨超过40%，NAND闪存价格预计将出现两位数百分比的涨幅。企业级固态硬盘（SSD）价格预计也将上涨20%~30%。在AI强劲需求带动下，台积电2nm制程被抢购一空，预计台积电将在其本土和美国共建设10座2纳米制程工厂，到2026年底，产能将达到8万至10万片晶圆，台积电的2nm成为全球独家技术，AI的爆发式增长带动了客户订单的激增，并将持续受益于先进制程晶圆价格的上涨，预计到2026年第三季度，台积电2nm工艺的收入将超过3nm和5nm工艺的总和。建议关注2026年1月6-9日在美国拉斯维加斯举办的全球科技风向标大会CES（国际消费电子展），本届CES，AI/AR眼镜、机器人、自动驾驶、新款折叠屏手机、性能强劲的AI端侧芯片及众多AI硬件产品将精彩纷呈。AMD将展示CPU、GPU及AI解决方案如何驱动从云端到边缘的智能变革，有望推出近期曝光的锐龙79850X3D，该型号预计将带来更出色的单线程性能，以及基于AMD Zen5架构打造的锐龙9000G系列。英特尔酷睿Ultra处理器（第三代）Panther Lake于美国拉斯维加斯当地时间1月5日在CES2026上正式发布，以全新架构与先进制程引领PC计算进入全能AI时代。高通骁龙X2 Elite与骁龙X2Elite Premium芯片预计将在CES2026期间正式亮相笔记本电脑产品，高通还将有汽车、物联网芯片的新品展示。英伟达CEO黄仁勋将在CES2026举办发布会，AI技术演进展示、平台生态建设构想以及物理AI的产品化落地。从美光及AI产业链公司业绩指引情况来看，AI需求持续强劲，我们认为，在英伟达及ASIC大力拉货的带动下，AI硬件产业链四季度业绩有望继续亮眼，展望明年上半年，英伟达Rubin开始拉货，谷歌及亚马逊新一代ASIC芯片也开始拉货，业绩有望继续保持高增长，继续看好AI硬件核心受益公司。整体来看，继续看好AI-PCB及核心算力硬件、半导体设备及苹果产业链。投资建议与估值继续看好AI-PCB及核心算力硬件、苹果产业链及自主可控受益产业链。我们认为AI强劲需求带动PCB价量齐升，目前多家AI-PCB公司订单强劲，满产满销，正在大力扩产，四季度及明年业绩高增长有望持续。AI覆铜板也需求旺盛，由于海外覆铜板扩产缓慢，大陆覆铜板龙头厂商有望积极受益。继续看好AI-PCB及核心算力硬件、苹果产业链及自主可控受益产业链。细分行业景气指标：消费电子（稳健向上）、PCB（加速向上）、半导体芯片（稳健向上）、半导体代工/设备/材料/零部件（稳健向上）、显示（底部企稳）、被动元件（稳健向上）、封测（稳健向上）。风险提示需求恢复不及预期的风险；AIGC进展不及预期的风险；外部制裁进一步升级的风险。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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